International Polar Year 2007–2008 - WMO

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406 IPY 20 07–20 08 Fig. 3.6-1. Average monthly sea ice extent from 1979 to 2010 shows a continued decline. The rate of sea ice decline since 1979 has increased to 11.2 percent per decade. (NSIDC - http://nsidc.org/ images/arcticseaicenews/ 20100504_Figure3.png) 5. Retrospective analyses after the season examines the success of the Sea Ice Outlook in advancing scientific understanding of the arctic sea ice system, and provide guidance to future research efforts. The results from the Outlook activities as of late spring 2009 are summarized in a paper by Overland et al., (2009). Summary of 2008 and 2009 efforts The projections of the Sea Ice Outlook groups for the September 2008 minimum ice extent, based on May data, had a median value of 4.2 million square kilometers (msk) and a range of 3.1 to 5.5 msk (see Fig. 3.6-1). The median value is roughly the same as the minimum observed in September 2007 (4.3 msk). With observations from early summer, the projected median sea ice extent value increased to 4.9 msk for the July Outlook with a range of 3.2 to 5.6 msk. Both of these Outlook projections are substantially lower and nearer to the observed September 2008 minimum value (4.5 msk) than to the 1979–2000 mean value (7.1 msk) or to the linear trend line of previous September minima (5.6 msk). Both sea ice models and seasonal melting projections provided the main semiquantitative information for the 2008 SIO. In a retrospective analysis, the SIO team determined that the agreement between projections and observations is consistent with the conclusion that initial conditions of spring sea ice are often an important factor in determining ice development over the course of the summer. They also noted that the role of summer atmospheric forcing is important, but was less important in 2008 compared to 2007, which had very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns. The SIO team felt that this result bodes well for future seasonal Sea Ice Outlooks. They concluded that during the next few summers it will be important to track potential recovery or further decline of the summer ice pack with late spring/early summer satellite and in situ sea ice observations providing important information. Following the SIO effort for summer 2008, the participants agreed to continue and prepare similar reports during summer 2009 and again in 2010. The same process used in 2008 was repeated for 2009. The initial Outlook released in June and based on May data showed a mean projected value for September sea ice extent minimum of 4.7 msk and a range of 3.2 to 5.0 msk (see Fig. 3.6-1). For the August report, based in July data, the mean projected value for September sea ice extent minimum was 4.6 msk, with
a range of 4.2 to 5.0 msk, with more than half of the 14 estimates in a narrow range of 4.4 to 4.6 million square kilometers, representing a near-record minimum. All estimates were well below the 1979–2007 September climatological mean value of 6.7 million square kilometers. The uncertainty/error values, from those groups that provided them, were about 0.4 million square kilometers, thus most of the estimates overlapped. In actuality, the 2009 Arctic sea ice minimum extent was reached on 12 September 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC; http:// nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2009/091709.html), with a value of 5.1 msk (Fig. 3.6-3). In a retrospective analysis, the SIO team concluded that September 2009 sea ice extent was driven by preexisting sea ice conditions at the end of spring, as well as variable wind patterns and cloudiness over the course of the summer. They stated that 2007 remains as an anomalous year, September Mean Sea Ice Extent (million sq km) dominated by steady meteorological conditions during the entire summer that were favourable for sea ice loss, while in 2009, August and September wind patterns and increased cloudiness were not conducive to major sea ice loss. The SIO team stated concern over the fact that all 2009 Outlook projections were below the observed September 2009 value. Yet they noted that, when projection uncertainty is taken into account, as well as it can be, the observed value is within an expected range of values. This was explored further by two groups from Germany and the U.S.A. that provided ensemble simulations with coupled ice-ocean models allowing for probabilistic assessments of expected minimum ice extent (Zhang et al., 2008; Kauker et al., 2009). The Outlook participants remained concerned over the convergence of the Outlook projections into a narrow range. They agreed that the last point emphasizes that further development and analysis of probabilistic Fig.3.6-2. Observed monthly mean Arctic sea ice extent in September (million sq km), 1979–2008. The vertical red lines shows the median value and range of estimates for the June 2008 and 2009 outlook forecasts for the following September sea ice extent. o b s e r v I n g s Y s t e m s a n d d a t a m a n a g e m e n t 407
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Understanding Earth’s Polar Chall
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Understanding Earth’s Polar Chall
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iv IPY 20 07-20 08 Table of Content
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vi IPY 20 07-20 08 Preface This sum
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viii IPY 20 07-20 08 Acknowledgemen
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x IPY 20 07-20 08 JC Members, IPO s
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xii IPY 20 07-20 08 Culp, Joseph 3.
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xiv IPY 20 07-20 08 Larsen, Joan Ny
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xvi IPY 20 07-20 08 Virtue, Patti 5
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xviii IPY 20 07-20 08 I N T R O D U
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xx IPY 20 07-20 08 As the polar reg
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xxii IPY 20 07-20 08 from many of t
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xxiv IPY 20 07-20 08
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2 IPY 20 07-20 08 PA R T O N E : PL
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4 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Andree
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Fig. 1.1-1 Carl Weyprecht (1838-188
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8 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 2 Programme o
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10 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 1.1-4 Globa
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Fig. 1.1-6 First meeting of the Com
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14 IPY 20 07-20 08 at the same Dani
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Fig. 1.1-8 U.S. Navy and constructi
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18 IPY 20 07-20 08 Cooperation.’
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20 IPY 20 07-20 08 decades (1950-19
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22 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Andre
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24 IPY 20 07-20 08 World Data Cente
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26 IPY 20 07-20 08 Placing the Firs
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28 IPY 20 07-20 08 23 Berkner’s l
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Fig. 1.2-1. Report on the forthcomi
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Fig. 1.2-3.First online publication
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34 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 1 Neumayer D
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Fig. 1.2-7. Fragment from the minut
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38 Box 2 Proposal to Establish an I
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40 IPY 20 07-20 08 the IPY Planning
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42 Box 3 Extract from the Proceedin
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44 Box 4 IPY 20 07-20 08 Resolution
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46 IPY 20 07-20 08 1-12. Paris. IAG
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48 IPY 20 07-20 08 Notes 1 Andreev
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50 IPY 20 07-20 08 nations needed t
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52 IPY 20 07-20 08 ICSU and WMO Pro
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54 IPY 20 07-20 08 Thiede for SCAR,
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56 IPY 20 07-20 08 PG-3, First Disc
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Fig. 1.3-7 (right). Cover page of t
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60 IPY 20 07-20 08 established by 1
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62 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 3 The develo
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Fig. 1.3-21 (left). Cover page of t
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Fig. 1.3-24. “A Vision for the In
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68 IPY 20 07-20 08 3 To the nine me
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70 IPY 20 07-20 08 multi-disciplina
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Fig. 1.4-2. SCAR Executive Committe
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74 IPY 20 07-20 08 to understand th
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Fig. 1.4-6. Front page of the AOSB
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78 IPY 20 07-20 08 International Po
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80 IPY 20 07-20 08 experts who atte
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82 IPY 20 07-20 08 and recognized I
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84 IPY 20 07-20 08 References IASC
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86 IPY 20 07-20 08 ATCM References
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88 IPY 20 07-20 08 best expertise f
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90 IPY 20 07-20 08 The EoI database
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92 IPY 20 07-20 08 support from Nor
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94 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 3 Formal est
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96 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 1.5-7. JC C
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98 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 1.5-9. Fahr
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100 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 7 Global la
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Fig.1.5-16. JC-8 Meeting in St. Pet
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104 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 8 “The St
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106 IPY 20 07-20 08 A somewhat cont
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Fig.1.5-20 Jerónimo López-Martín
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Fig.1.5-21 IPY 2007-2008 was offici
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112 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Alli
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114 IPY 20 07-20 08 Portugal, Russi
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116 IPY 20 07-20 08 limited success
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118 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 1.6-1. IPO
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120 Box 1 Meetings and conferences
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122 IPY 20 07-20 08 lished under IP
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Fig.1.6-3. IPO staff members Nicola
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126 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Kais
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128 IPY 20 07-20 08 not sufficient
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130 IPY 20 07-20 08 the IPY Observi
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132 IPY 20 07-20 08 and data manage
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134 IPY 20 07-20 08 PA R T T WO: IP
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136 IPY 20 07-20 08 of which have g
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Fig. 2.1-1. The new building of Tik
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140 IPY 20 07-20 08 instruments on
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Fig. 2.1-4. Time-patterns of the da
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Fig. 2.1-6. Ozone loss rates (parts
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146 IPY 20 07-20 08 fractional sea
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148 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.1-9. Sea
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150 IPY 20 07-20 08 vations obtaine
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152 IPY 20 07-20 08 pre-dating the
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154 IPY 20 07-20 08 Sensing, 48(4):
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Table 2.2-1. Estimates of volume, h
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Fig. 2.2-3. Track of the NABOS Crui
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Fig. 2.2-4. Distribution of the oce
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162 IPY 20 07-20 08 quality of the
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164 IPY 20 07-20 08 much of the ozo
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166 IPY 20 07-20 08 concentration m
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168 IPY 20 07-20 08 Jackson et al.,
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170 IPY 20 07-20 08 developed or pr
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172 IPY 20 07-20 08 decrease in the
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Fig. 2.2-11. The acoustic data from
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176 IPY 20 07-20 08 providing plent
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178 IPY 20 07-20 08 Sampling of the
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Fig. 2.2-15 The position of the ice
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Fig. 2.2-17. Schematic of the scien
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184 IPY 20 07-20 08 48(1): 5-21. Di
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186 IPY 20 07-20 08 doi:10.1029/200
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Table 2.3-1. IPY projects in the So
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Fig. 2.3-1b. Hydrographic sections
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Fig. 2.3-2a. A total of 61,965 prof
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194 IPY 20 07-20 08 period. These p
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Fig.e 2.3-5. The Weddell gyre flow
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Fig. 2.3-7. Dissolved iron, salinit
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200 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.3-8. Ver
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Fig. 2.3-9. CAML ship sampling duri
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204 IPY 20 07-20 08 the theory that
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Fig. 2.3-12. Dead krill on the beac
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Fig. 2.3-14. Laser altimeter swath
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210 IPY 20 07-20 08 tions and Infor
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212 IPY 20 07-20 08 solved iron in
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214 IPY 20 07-20 08 Antarctic ice s
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216 IPY 20 07-20 08 so-called Dansg
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218 IPY 20 07-20 08 other Greenland
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Fig. 2.4-3. The newly completed NEE
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222 IPY 20 07-20 08 In July-August
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Fig. 2.4-7. Bed topography map for
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Fig. 2.4-9. The grid over which dat
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228 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.4-10. Ta
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Fig. 2.4-12. Airborne lidar and gro
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232 IPY 20 07-20 08 tic and Antarct
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234 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.5-1. Sch
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236 IPY 20 07-20 08 our planet: the
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238 IPY 20 07-20 08 base Syowa via
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240 IPY 20 07-20 08 possible to add
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242 IPY 20 07-20 08 sary environmen
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Fig. 2.6-1. An artist’s cross-sec
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246 IPY 20 07-20 08 conditions. The
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Fig. 2.6-3. Russian scientific trav
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250 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.6-5a. Co
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252 IPY 20 07-20 08 Emerging Subgla
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254 IPY 20 07-20 08 Masolov V.N., S
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Fig. 2.7-1. Permafrost extent in th
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258 IPY 20 07-20 08 contributed to
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Table 2.7-1. Inventory of Northern
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Table 2.7-2. Inventory of Antarctic
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264 IPY 20 07-20 08 Arctic Circum-P
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266 IPY 20 07-20 08 Northern Circum
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268 IPY 20 07-20 08 Permafrost in t
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270 IPY 20 07-20 08 Engineers Offic
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272 IPY 20 07-20 08 Valcárcel-Día
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Fig. 2.8-1. Antarctica’s Gamburts
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276 IPY 20 07-20 08 sampling at rel
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278 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.8-5. PLA
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Fig. 2.8-6. POLENET autonomous, col
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Fig. 2.8-7. Continuouslyrecording G
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284 IPY 20 07-20 08 Seismic imaging
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286 IPY 20 07-20 08 expectations of
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288 IPY 20 07-20 08 Willis, 2009b.
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290 IPY 20 07-20 08 Meet. Suppl., A
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292 IPY 20 07-20 08 mantle beneath
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Table 2.9-1. Terrestrial Projects u
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296 IPY 20 07-20 08 future. For thi
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Fig. 2.9-2. A small moving drill wa
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300 IPY 20 07-20 08 2.9-4. Field si
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302 IPY 20 07-20 08 line zones have
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304 IPY 20 07-20 08 that the Arctic
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Fig. 2.9-7. Olga Bohuslavova, Ph.D.
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308 IPY 20 07-20 08 Acknowledgement
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310 IPY 20 07-20 08 arctic polar se
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Table 2.10-1. List of active projec
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314 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.10-1. IP
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316 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 1. The ‘f
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318 IPY 20 07-20 08 The field of th
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Table 2.10-2. Recommended ‘Small
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322 IPY 20 07-20 08 as a research a
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Fig. 2.10-7. Participants of the
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Fig. 2.10-9. 6th International Cong
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328 IPY 20 07-20 08 eral models. Th
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330 IPY 20 07-20 08 popularity duri
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332 IPY 20 07-20 08 in an Arctic Re
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334 IPY 20 07-20 08 Vairo, C., R. C
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Fig. 2.11-1. The circumpolar Arctic
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338 IPY 20 07-20 08 and the Danish
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340 IPY 20 07-20 08 Canadian traini
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342 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.11-3. Th
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344 IPY 20 07-20 08 logical studies
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Fig. 2.11-5. Salmon drying on the Y
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348 IPY 20 07-20 08 health status (
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350 IPY 20 07-20 08 communication,
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352 IPY 20 07-20 08 play an importa
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354 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Alle
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Page 388 and 389: Fig. 3.1-1. Antarctica mosaic image
Page 390 and 391: Fig. 3.1-3. Evolution of the Wilkin
Page 392 and 393: Fig. 3.1-5. Threedimensional mappin
Page 394 and 395: Fig. 3.1-8. Time series of monthly
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Page 402 and 403: Fig. 3.2-4. Fresh water content (FW
Page 404 and 405: Fig. 3.2-6. Composite changes in th
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Page 456 and 457: Table 3.9-2. Current status, trends
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456 IPY 20 07-20 08 Edited by I. Kr
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458 IPY 20 07-20 08 the World Ocean
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460 IPY 20 07-20 08 In the period l
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Table 3.11-1. National IPY Data Coo
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464 IPY 20 07-20 08 on basic data m
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466 IPY 20 07-20 08 handling commun
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468 IPY 20 07-20 08 funding agencie
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470 IPY 20 07-20 08 metadata. • M
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472 IPY 20 07-20 08 A major initial
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Table 3.11-2. Summary assessment of
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476 IPY 20 07-20 08 tion and Data.F
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478 IPY 20 07-20 08 PA R T F O U R
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480 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 4.0-2. A w
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482 IPY 20 07-20 08 Historical back
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Fig. 4.1-1. Participants at the Str
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486 IPY 20 07-20 08 students throug
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488 IPY 20 07-20 08 Officers from m
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Fig. 4.1-2. Students in Portugal to
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492 IPY 20 07-20 08 Two internation
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494 IPY 20 07-20 08 the submissions
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Fig. 4.1-4. (left) Teachers partici
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498 IPY 20 07-20 08 conference, ‘
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500 Fig. 4.2-1. IPYPD Basic search
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Table 4.2-2. Distribution of public
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504 IPY 20 07-20 08 Google Groups t
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506 IPY 20 07-20 08 tative/liaison
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508 IPY 20 07-20 08 material had to
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510 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Arct
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512 IPY 20 07-20 08 Highlights from
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514 IPY 20 07-20 08 students throug
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Fig. 4.3-1. Participants of the mee
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Fig. 4.3-3. Early career scientists
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520 IPY 20 07-20 08 management. The
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Fig. 4.3-4. During IPY early career
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524 IPY 20 07-20 08 PA R T FI V E :
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526 IPY 20 07-20 08 ‘legacies’)
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528 IPY 20 07-20 08 sciences_for_ip
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530 IPY 20 07-20 08 of multidiscipl
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Fig. 5.1-2 In situ platforms, inclu
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534 IPY 20 07-20 08 tion documented
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536 IPY 20 07-20 08 warming over th
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538 IPY 20 07-20 08 the Russian Ant
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540 IPY 20 07-20 08 Background with
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542 IPY 20 07-20 08 achievements al
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544 IPY 20 07-20 08 with a Sunyaev-
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546 IPY 20 07-20 08 doing will cont
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548 IPY 20 07-20 08 IPY 2007-2008 (
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Fig.5.2-4. Proposed structure of th
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552 IPY 20 07-20 08 from April 2010
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554 IPY 20 07-20 08 References ACIA
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556 IPY 20 07-20 08 and China agree
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Fig.5.3-1. Routine CTD profiling du
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560 IPY 20 07-20 08 Svalbard, Norwa
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Fig.5.3-7. Comparison of geostrophi
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Fig.5.3-9. Participants of the IPY
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Fig.5.3-11. Japanese- Swedish Antar
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Fig.5.3-13. Memorial photo after th
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570 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig.5.3-15. New
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Fig.5.3-17. Malaysian biologist Che
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Fig.5.3-19. Malaysian Arctic sampli
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576 IPY 20 07-20 08 their role via
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578 IPY 20 07-20 08 IPY 2007-2008 g
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Fig. 5.4-3. Community meeting organ
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582 IPY 20 07-20 08 Krupnik and Jol
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584 IPY 20 07-20 08 training may be
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586 IPY 20 07-20 08 of the universi
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Table 5.4-1: UArctic Members and St
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Fig. 5.4-11. Inaugural IAI meeting
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592 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Refe
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594 IPY 20 07-20 08 Council (AC) in
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596 IPY 20 07-20 08 established in
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598 IPY 20 07-20 08 cal cycle, perm
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600 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig.5.5-3. In t
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602 IPY 20 07-20 08 New Role of the
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604 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 5.5-6. Ice
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Fig.5.5-8. Paul Berkman, Chair of t
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608 IPY 20 07-20 08 speakers and pa
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610 IPY 20 07-20 08 Approach for Br
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612 IPY 20 07-20 08 promoted since
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614 IPY 20 07-20 08 states in polar
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Fig.5.6-2. The IPY Oslo Science Con
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618 Box 1 Oslo Science Conference P
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Fig. 5.6-6 The inclusion of early c
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622 IPY 20 07-20 08 2008 implementa
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624 IPY 20 07-20 08 capacity buildi
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626 IPY 20 07-20 08 emissions of me
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628 IPY 20 07-20 08 Epilogue Lead A
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Table E-1: What Does It Take to Com
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632 IPY 20 07-20 08 both ICSU and W
Page 660 and 661:
634 IPY 20 07-20 08
Page 662 and 663:
636 IPY 20 07-20 08 Robin Bell is a
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638 IPY 20 07-20 08 Tillmann Mohr i
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640 IPY 20 07-20 08 Volker Rachold
Page 668 and 669:
642 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 2 IPY
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644 IPY 20 07-20 08 Activity ID Tit
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Page 676 and 677:
650 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 3 Joi
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652 IPY 20 07-20 08 Third Meeting o
Page 680 and 681:
654 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fifth Meeting o
Page 682 and 683:
656 IPY 20 07-20 08 Seventh Meeting
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658 IPY 20 07-20 08 Ninth Meeting o
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660 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 5 Sub
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662 A PPENDIX 6 IPY Project Charts,
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Appendix 6 Fig.3. Version 3.4, Apri
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Appendix 6 Fig.5. Version 6.4, May
Page 694 and 695:
668 A PPENDIX 7 List of the Nationa
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670 IPY 20 07-20 08 Poland IPY Nati
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672 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 9 IPY
Page 700 and 701:
674 IPY 20 07-20 08 2002 February.
Page 702 and 703:
676 IPY 20 07-20 08 January 22. Int
Page 704 and 705:
678 IPY 20 07-20 08 November 24. Ar
Page 706 and 707:
680 IPY 20 07-20 08 March 2. IPY Da
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682 IPY 20 07-20 08 February 16. Sc
Page 710 and 711:
684 IPY 20 07-20 08 2008 January 20
Page 712 and 713:
686 IPY 20 07-20 08 February 26. Th
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688 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 10 Se
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690 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 11 Li
Page 718 and 719:
692 IPY 20 07-20 08 FWC Freshwater
Page 720 and 721:
694 IPY 20 07-20 08 OCH Oscillating
Page 724:
698 The International Polar Year (I
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International Polar Year 2007–2008 - WMO

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