International Polar Year 2007–2008 - WMO

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408 IPY 20 07–20 08 forecast ranges and measures of uncertainty will be critical to improvement in future efforts. The SIO team stated that the sea ice evolution in 2009 signals that it could be several more years, in a probabilistic sense, before conditions favour another major sea ice loss event. Nevertheless, they noted that the increase in sea ice extent for 2009 relative to 2008 does not exceed past interannual variability in a nearcontinuous, 30-year downward trend in summer sea ice extent (Fig. 3.6-4). They also noted that melt-out of sea ice near the North Pole continues to be less than in the Beaufort and Siberian sectors because of the decreasing importance of solar forcing. They concluded that this may be a limiting factor in the rate of future sea ice loss. In 2009, the outlook also included a regional outlook examining ice evolution in several regional sectors of the Arctic by nine contributing research Fig.3.6-3. Minimal sea ice extent for summer 2009 reported on 12 September 2009. (Photo: NSIDC) groups (Fig.3.6-5). Combining statistical models, ensemble simulations and heuristic approaches, seven of the nine categorical forecasts were accurate. These results indicate that a thorough understanding of local ice conditions and long-term records of ice variability can go a long way towards enhancing the reliability of such regional projections on seasonal time scales. Forecasts of seasonal break-up of coastal ice, of relevance for a number of different stakeholder groups, also demonstrated that cloudiness and downwelling shortwave radiation plays a key role in driving summer ice retreat, both at the hemispheric and local level (Petrich et al., in prep.). In thinking about how to improve the ability to forecast sea ice conditions in future summers, the SIO team stated: • Consideration of multiple sources of data, including visual observations, is important for reducing
uncertainty in the Outlooks. Buoys provide key observations for mapping and attributing summer ice loss: drift, bottom vs. top melt, amount of snow accumulation, nature of ponds (even if anecdotal from webcams) and thickness of level ice. Considerable effort should be made to estimate thickness distributions of ice and snow cover needed to initialize simulations. Aircraft and other reconnaissance are also helpful. • Because of the importance of initial conditions for the sea ice state, more work is needed on remote sensing retrieval and interpretation of spring and summer ice concentrations and ice conditions, even if the present operational algorithms are not changed. • Both full sea ice models and seasonal melt projections applied to detailed sea ice distributions and trajectories provided the main semiquantitative information for the Outlook. The SIO for 2009 went further than in 2008 by looking not only at the progression of ice melt, but also evaluating the rate of regrowth of ice in the fall. There was evidence that growth of ice in October and November was retarded and in fact the sea ice extent in portions of fall 2009 was less than in the corresponding period of the record minimum year of 2007. The SIO team is continuing the Outlook process again in 2010. While it is too early to state with Fig.3.6-4. Daily arctic sea ice extent from passive microwave satellite data (SSM/I). The solid light blue line indicates 2009 relative to 2005, 2007 and 2008. The solid gray line indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. (National Snow and Ice Data Center) confidence, there is a possibility that the SIO process might continue and evolve into one of the valuable “legacy” activities of the IPY. The specific outcomes of the Outlook activities include the following: • Synthesis of remote-sensing or ground-based observations and modeling efforts to further understanding of variability and seasonal-scale predictability of the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system. • Creation of a forum that allows both the scientific community and educated laypeople to obtain better insight into cutting-edge Arctic system research. • Enhanced scientific communication between field researchers, remote-sensing experts and modelers at time scales commensurate with the rapid change observed in the Arctic (i.e. faster than typical scientific publication cycles). • Improved information exchange between researchers in academia and government agencies tasked with operational support in Arctic areas, in particular by providing a testbed for different forecasting approaches and creating a forum that allows agency personnel to draw on the broad expertise of the international research community. o b s e r v I n g s Y s t e m s a n d d a t a m a n a g e m e n t 409
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Understanding Earth’s Polar Chall
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Understanding Earth’s Polar Chall
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iv IPY 20 07-20 08 Table of Content
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vi IPY 20 07-20 08 Preface This sum
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viii IPY 20 07-20 08 Acknowledgemen
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x IPY 20 07-20 08 JC Members, IPO s
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xii IPY 20 07-20 08 Culp, Joseph 3.
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xiv IPY 20 07-20 08 Larsen, Joan Ny
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xvi IPY 20 07-20 08 Virtue, Patti 5
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xviii IPY 20 07-20 08 I N T R O D U
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xx IPY 20 07-20 08 As the polar reg
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xxii IPY 20 07-20 08 from many of t
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xxiv IPY 20 07-20 08
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2 IPY 20 07-20 08 PA R T O N E : PL
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4 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Andree
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Fig. 1.1-1 Carl Weyprecht (1838-188
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8 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 2 Programme o
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10 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 1.1-4 Globa
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Fig. 1.1-6 First meeting of the Com
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14 IPY 20 07-20 08 at the same Dani
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Fig. 1.1-8 U.S. Navy and constructi
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18 IPY 20 07-20 08 Cooperation.’
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20 IPY 20 07-20 08 decades (1950-19
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22 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Andre
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24 IPY 20 07-20 08 World Data Cente
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26 IPY 20 07-20 08 Placing the Firs
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28 IPY 20 07-20 08 23 Berkner’s l
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Fig. 1.2-1. Report on the forthcomi
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Fig. 1.2-3.First online publication
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34 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 1 Neumayer D
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Fig. 1.2-7. Fragment from the minut
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38 Box 2 Proposal to Establish an I
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40 IPY 20 07-20 08 the IPY Planning
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42 Box 3 Extract from the Proceedin
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44 Box 4 IPY 20 07-20 08 Resolution
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46 IPY 20 07-20 08 1-12. Paris. IAG
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48 IPY 20 07-20 08 Notes 1 Andreev
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50 IPY 20 07-20 08 nations needed t
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52 IPY 20 07-20 08 ICSU and WMO Pro
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54 IPY 20 07-20 08 Thiede for SCAR,
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56 IPY 20 07-20 08 PG-3, First Disc
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Fig. 1.3-7 (right). Cover page of t
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60 IPY 20 07-20 08 established by 1
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62 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 3 The develo
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Fig. 1.3-21 (left). Cover page of t
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Fig. 1.3-24. “A Vision for the In
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68 IPY 20 07-20 08 3 To the nine me
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70 IPY 20 07-20 08 multi-disciplina
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Fig. 1.4-2. SCAR Executive Committe
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74 IPY 20 07-20 08 to understand th
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Fig. 1.4-6. Front page of the AOSB
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78 IPY 20 07-20 08 International Po
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80 IPY 20 07-20 08 experts who atte
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82 IPY 20 07-20 08 and recognized I
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84 IPY 20 07-20 08 References IASC
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86 IPY 20 07-20 08 ATCM References
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88 IPY 20 07-20 08 best expertise f
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90 IPY 20 07-20 08 The EoI database
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92 IPY 20 07-20 08 support from Nor
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94 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 3 Formal est
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96 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 1.5-7. JC C
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98 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 1.5-9. Fahr
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100 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 7 Global la
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Fig.1.5-16. JC-8 Meeting in St. Pet
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104 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 8 “The St
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106 IPY 20 07-20 08 A somewhat cont
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Fig.1.5-20 Jerónimo López-Martín
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Fig.1.5-21 IPY 2007-2008 was offici
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112 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Alli
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114 IPY 20 07-20 08 Portugal, Russi
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116 IPY 20 07-20 08 limited success
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118 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 1.6-1. IPO
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120 Box 1 Meetings and conferences
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122 IPY 20 07-20 08 lished under IP
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Fig.1.6-3. IPO staff members Nicola
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126 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Kais
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128 IPY 20 07-20 08 not sufficient
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130 IPY 20 07-20 08 the IPY Observi
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132 IPY 20 07-20 08 and data manage
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134 IPY 20 07-20 08 PA R T T WO: IP
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136 IPY 20 07-20 08 of which have g
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Fig. 2.1-1. The new building of Tik
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140 IPY 20 07-20 08 instruments on
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Fig. 2.1-4. Time-patterns of the da
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Fig. 2.1-6. Ozone loss rates (parts
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146 IPY 20 07-20 08 fractional sea
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148 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.1-9. Sea
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150 IPY 20 07-20 08 vations obtaine
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152 IPY 20 07-20 08 pre-dating the
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154 IPY 20 07-20 08 Sensing, 48(4):
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Table 2.2-1. Estimates of volume, h
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Fig. 2.2-3. Track of the NABOS Crui
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Fig. 2.2-4. Distribution of the oce
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162 IPY 20 07-20 08 quality of the
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164 IPY 20 07-20 08 much of the ozo
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166 IPY 20 07-20 08 concentration m
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168 IPY 20 07-20 08 Jackson et al.,
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170 IPY 20 07-20 08 developed or pr
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172 IPY 20 07-20 08 decrease in the
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Fig. 2.2-11. The acoustic data from
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176 IPY 20 07-20 08 providing plent
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178 IPY 20 07-20 08 Sampling of the
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Fig. 2.2-15 The position of the ice
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Fig. 2.2-17. Schematic of the scien
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184 IPY 20 07-20 08 48(1): 5-21. Di
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186 IPY 20 07-20 08 doi:10.1029/200
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Table 2.3-1. IPY projects in the So
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Fig. 2.3-1b. Hydrographic sections
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Fig. 2.3-2a. A total of 61,965 prof
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194 IPY 20 07-20 08 period. These p
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Fig.e 2.3-5. The Weddell gyre flow
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Fig. 2.3-7. Dissolved iron, salinit
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200 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.3-8. Ver
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Fig. 2.3-9. CAML ship sampling duri
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204 IPY 20 07-20 08 the theory that
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Fig. 2.3-12. Dead krill on the beac
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Fig. 2.3-14. Laser altimeter swath
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210 IPY 20 07-20 08 tions and Infor
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212 IPY 20 07-20 08 solved iron in
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214 IPY 20 07-20 08 Antarctic ice s
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216 IPY 20 07-20 08 so-called Dansg
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218 IPY 20 07-20 08 other Greenland
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Fig. 2.4-3. The newly completed NEE
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222 IPY 20 07-20 08 In July-August
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Fig. 2.4-7. Bed topography map for
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Fig. 2.4-9. The grid over which dat
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228 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.4-10. Ta
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Fig. 2.4-12. Airborne lidar and gro
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232 IPY 20 07-20 08 tic and Antarct
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234 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.5-1. Sch
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236 IPY 20 07-20 08 our planet: the
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238 IPY 20 07-20 08 base Syowa via
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240 IPY 20 07-20 08 possible to add
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242 IPY 20 07-20 08 sary environmen
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Fig. 2.6-1. An artist’s cross-sec
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246 IPY 20 07-20 08 conditions. The
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Fig. 2.6-3. Russian scientific trav
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250 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.6-5a. Co
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252 IPY 20 07-20 08 Emerging Subgla
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254 IPY 20 07-20 08 Masolov V.N., S
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Fig. 2.7-1. Permafrost extent in th
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258 IPY 20 07-20 08 contributed to
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Table 2.7-1. Inventory of Northern
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Table 2.7-2. Inventory of Antarctic
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264 IPY 20 07-20 08 Arctic Circum-P
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266 IPY 20 07-20 08 Northern Circum
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268 IPY 20 07-20 08 Permafrost in t
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270 IPY 20 07-20 08 Engineers Offic
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272 IPY 20 07-20 08 Valcárcel-Día
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Fig. 2.8-1. Antarctica’s Gamburts
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276 IPY 20 07-20 08 sampling at rel
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278 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.8-5. PLA
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Fig. 2.8-6. POLENET autonomous, col
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Fig. 2.8-7. Continuouslyrecording G
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284 IPY 20 07-20 08 Seismic imaging
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286 IPY 20 07-20 08 expectations of
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288 IPY 20 07-20 08 Willis, 2009b.
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290 IPY 20 07-20 08 Meet. Suppl., A
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292 IPY 20 07-20 08 mantle beneath
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Table 2.9-1. Terrestrial Projects u
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296 IPY 20 07-20 08 future. For thi
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Fig. 2.9-2. A small moving drill wa
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300 IPY 20 07-20 08 2.9-4. Field si
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302 IPY 20 07-20 08 line zones have
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304 IPY 20 07-20 08 that the Arctic
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Fig. 2.9-7. Olga Bohuslavova, Ph.D.
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308 IPY 20 07-20 08 Acknowledgement
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310 IPY 20 07-20 08 arctic polar se
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Table 2.10-1. List of active projec
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314 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.10-1. IP
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316 IPY 20 07-20 08 Box 1. The ‘f
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318 IPY 20 07-20 08 The field of th
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Table 2.10-2. Recommended ‘Small
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322 IPY 20 07-20 08 as a research a
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Fig. 2.10-7. Participants of the
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Fig. 2.10-9. 6th International Cong
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328 IPY 20 07-20 08 eral models. Th
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330 IPY 20 07-20 08 popularity duri
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332 IPY 20 07-20 08 in an Arctic Re
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334 IPY 20 07-20 08 Vairo, C., R. C
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Fig. 2.11-1. The circumpolar Arctic
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338 IPY 20 07-20 08 and the Danish
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340 IPY 20 07-20 08 Canadian traini
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342 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 2.11-3. Th
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344 IPY 20 07-20 08 logical studies
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Fig. 2.11-5. Salmon drying on the Y
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348 IPY 20 07-20 08 health status (
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350 IPY 20 07-20 08 communication,
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352 IPY 20 07-20 08 play an importa
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354 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Alle
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356 IPY 20 07-20 08 D are associate
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Page 388 and 389: Fig. 3.1-1. Antarctica mosaic image
Page 390 and 391: Fig. 3.1-3. Evolution of the Wilkin
Page 392 and 393: Fig. 3.1-5. Threedimensional mappin
Page 394 and 395: Fig. 3.1-8. Time series of monthly
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Page 398 and 399: Fig. 3.2-1. Potential temperature/
Page 400 and 401: Fig. 3.2-3. A Distributed Biologica
Page 402 and 403: Fig. 3.2-4. Fresh water content (FW
Page 404 and 405: Fig. 3.2-6. Composite changes in th
Page 406 and 407: Fig. 3.2-7. Mooring components (lef
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Page 424 and 425: Fig. 3.5-1. Antarctic stations at t
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Page 428 and 429: Fig. 3.5-6. Sonde launch at Halley
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Page 438 and 439: Fig. 3.7-1. Examples of the cryosph
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Page 452 and 453: Fig. 3.9-3. Screenshots of the CBMP
Page 454 and 455: Fig. 3.9-5. (left) Data Coverage by
Page 456 and 457: Table 3.9-2. Current status, trends
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458 IPY 20 07-20 08 the World Ocean
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460 IPY 20 07-20 08 In the period l
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Table 3.11-1. National IPY Data Coo
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464 IPY 20 07-20 08 on basic data m
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466 IPY 20 07-20 08 handling commun
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468 IPY 20 07-20 08 funding agencie
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470 IPY 20 07-20 08 metadata. • M
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472 IPY 20 07-20 08 A major initial
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Table 3.11-2. Summary assessment of
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476 IPY 20 07-20 08 tion and Data.F
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478 IPY 20 07-20 08 PA R T F O U R
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480 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 4.0-2. A w
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482 IPY 20 07-20 08 Historical back
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Fig. 4.1-1. Participants at the Str
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486 IPY 20 07-20 08 students throug
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488 IPY 20 07-20 08 Officers from m
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Fig. 4.1-2. Students in Portugal to
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492 IPY 20 07-20 08 Two internation
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494 IPY 20 07-20 08 the submissions
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Fig. 4.1-4. (left) Teachers partici
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498 IPY 20 07-20 08 conference, ‘
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500 Fig. 4.2-1. IPYPD Basic search
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Table 4.2-2. Distribution of public
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504 IPY 20 07-20 08 Google Groups t
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506 IPY 20 07-20 08 tative/liaison
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508 IPY 20 07-20 08 material had to
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510 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Arct
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512 IPY 20 07-20 08 Highlights from
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514 IPY 20 07-20 08 students throug
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Fig. 4.3-1. Participants of the mee
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Fig. 4.3-3. Early career scientists
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520 IPY 20 07-20 08 management. The
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Fig. 4.3-4. During IPY early career
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524 IPY 20 07-20 08 PA R T FI V E :
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526 IPY 20 07-20 08 ‘legacies’)
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528 IPY 20 07-20 08 sciences_for_ip
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530 IPY 20 07-20 08 of multidiscipl
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Fig. 5.1-2 In situ platforms, inclu
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534 IPY 20 07-20 08 tion documented
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536 IPY 20 07-20 08 warming over th
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538 IPY 20 07-20 08 the Russian Ant
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540 IPY 20 07-20 08 Background with
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542 IPY 20 07-20 08 achievements al
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544 IPY 20 07-20 08 with a Sunyaev-
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546 IPY 20 07-20 08 doing will cont
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548 IPY 20 07-20 08 IPY 2007-2008 (
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Fig.5.2-4. Proposed structure of th
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552 IPY 20 07-20 08 from April 2010
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554 IPY 20 07-20 08 References ACIA
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556 IPY 20 07-20 08 and China agree
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Fig.5.3-1. Routine CTD profiling du
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560 IPY 20 07-20 08 Svalbard, Norwa
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Fig.5.3-7. Comparison of geostrophi
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Fig.5.3-9. Participants of the IPY
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Fig.5.3-11. Japanese- Swedish Antar
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Fig.5.3-13. Memorial photo after th
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570 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig.5.3-15. New
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Fig.5.3-17. Malaysian biologist Che
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Fig.5.3-19. Malaysian Arctic sampli
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576 IPY 20 07-20 08 their role via
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578 IPY 20 07-20 08 IPY 2007-2008 g
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Fig. 5.4-3. Community meeting organ
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582 IPY 20 07-20 08 Krupnik and Jol
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584 IPY 20 07-20 08 training may be
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586 IPY 20 07-20 08 of the universi
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Table 5.4-1: UArctic Members and St
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Fig. 5.4-11. Inaugural IAI meeting
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592 IPY 20 07-20 08 References Refe
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594 IPY 20 07-20 08 Council (AC) in
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596 IPY 20 07-20 08 established in
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598 IPY 20 07-20 08 cal cycle, perm
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600 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig.5.5-3. In t
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602 IPY 20 07-20 08 New Role of the
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604 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fig. 5.5-6. Ice
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Fig.5.5-8. Paul Berkman, Chair of t
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608 IPY 20 07-20 08 speakers and pa
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610 IPY 20 07-20 08 Approach for Br
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612 IPY 20 07-20 08 promoted since
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614 IPY 20 07-20 08 states in polar
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Fig.5.6-2. The IPY Oslo Science Con
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618 Box 1 Oslo Science Conference P
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Fig. 5.6-6 The inclusion of early c
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622 IPY 20 07-20 08 2008 implementa
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624 IPY 20 07-20 08 capacity buildi
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626 IPY 20 07-20 08 emissions of me
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628 IPY 20 07-20 08 Epilogue Lead A
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Table E-1: What Does It Take to Com
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632 IPY 20 07-20 08 both ICSU and W
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634 IPY 20 07-20 08
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636 IPY 20 07-20 08 Robin Bell is a
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638 IPY 20 07-20 08 Tillmann Mohr i
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640 IPY 20 07-20 08 Volker Rachold
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642 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 2 IPY
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644 IPY 20 07-20 08 Activity ID Tit
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650 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 3 Joi
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652 IPY 20 07-20 08 Third Meeting o
Page 680 and 681:
654 IPY 20 07-20 08 Fifth Meeting o
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656 IPY 20 07-20 08 Seventh Meeting
Page 684 and 685:
658 IPY 20 07-20 08 Ninth Meeting o
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660 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 5 Sub
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662 A PPENDIX 6 IPY Project Charts,
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Appendix 6 Fig.3. Version 3.4, Apri
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Appendix 6 Fig.5. Version 6.4, May
Page 694 and 695:
668 A PPENDIX 7 List of the Nationa
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670 IPY 20 07-20 08 Poland IPY Nati
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672 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 9 IPY
Page 700 and 701:
674 IPY 20 07-20 08 2002 February.
Page 702 and 703:
676 IPY 20 07-20 08 January 22. Int
Page 704 and 705:
678 IPY 20 07-20 08 November 24. Ar
Page 706 and 707:
680 IPY 20 07-20 08 March 2. IPY Da
Page 708 and 709:
682 IPY 20 07-20 08 February 16. Sc
Page 710 and 711:
684 IPY 20 07-20 08 2008 January 20
Page 712 and 713:
686 IPY 20 07-20 08 February 26. Th
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688 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 10 Se
Page 716 and 717:
690 IPY 20 07-20 08 A PPENDIX 11 Li
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692 IPY 20 07-20 08 FWC Freshwater
Page 720 and 721:
694 IPY 20 07-20 08 OCH Oscillating
Page 724:
698 The International Polar Year (I
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International Polar Year 2007–2008 - WMO

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