The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

Table 2.3: Frequency <strong>of</strong> Recidivism (All Offenses, 2-Year Follow-Up)
Zero-Inflated Negative Number <strong>of</strong> observations = 1,559
Binomial Regression Nonzero observations = 335
Zero observations = 1,224
Inflation model = logit Likelihood Ratio χ 2 (9 d.f.) = 29.77
Log likelihood= -1700.398 Pr > χ 2 = .001
Full Model
Incidence
Rate Ratio
S.E. z p
Treatment group .89 .148 -.69 .489
West probation region 1.41 .296 1.61 .107
Male 2.03 .365 3.93 .000
White 1.14 .227 .64 .521
Age at RA .98 .009 -2.62 .009
Income $20,000-$29,999 1.53 .464 1.41 .160
Income $30,000-$39,999 1.35 .464 .86 .388
Income $40,000 or more 1.11 .435 .26 .798
Monthly <strong>of</strong>fending rate 1 year
pre-RA (any charged <strong>of</strong>fense)
.99 .196 -.06 .951
Log <strong>of</strong> post-RA months at risk [<strong>of</strong>fset]
Inflated Model b S.E. z p
Treatment group -.067 .152 -.44 .658
West probation region .494 .187 2.64 .008
Male -.104 .171 -.61 .542
White .003 .191 .01 .989
Age at RA .020 .008 2.62 .009
Income $20,000-$29,999 .569 .307 1.85 .064
Income $30,000-$39,999 .795 .331 2.38 .018
Income $40,000 or more 1.478 .371 3.98 .000
Monthly <strong>of</strong>fending rate 1 year
pre-RA (any charged <strong>of</strong>fense)
.199 .186 1.07 .287
Constant -4.027 .510 -7.90 .000
Log <strong>of</strong> post-RA months at risk [<strong>of</strong>fset]
Ln(Alpha) .779 .162 4.82 .000
Alpha 2.179 .352
Vuong test <strong>of</strong> zero-inflated vs. standard negative binomial: z = 7.04, p < .001
112