The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

Table 2.11: Instrumental Variables Model: Prevalence <strong>of</strong> Recidivism (Violent Offenses,
2-Year Follow-Up)
First Stage
Treatment Take-Up
Reduced Form (ITT)
Post-RA Violent Off.
Observations = 1,559 Observations = 1,559
R 2 = .661 R 2 = .117
Adjusted R 2 = .658 Adjusted R 2 = .107
Instruments b (S.E.) b (S.E.)
Assigned LIS .808 (.088)*** -.073 (.062)
Assigned LIS*West -.075 (.035)* .005 (.025)
Assigned LIS*Male .013 (.032) .009 (.022)
Assigned LIS*White -.021 (.037) .048 (.026)
Assigned LIS*Age -.000 (.001) .000 (.001)
Assigned LIS*Income20 .025 (.057) .078 (.040)
Assigned LIS*Income30 .083 (.060) .060 (.043)
Assigned LIS*Income40 .021 (.066) .053 (.047)
Assigned LIS*Prior <strong>of</strong>fending -.004 (.099) -.104 (.070)
Exogenous
Months in jail post-RA -.013 (.002)*** .021 (.002)***
West probation region .056 (.025)* -.028 (.017)
Male .010 (.023) .037 (.016)*
White .009 (.027) -.028 (.019)
Age at RA .001 (.001) -.001 (.001)
Income $20,000-$29,999 -.001 (.039) -.066 (.028)*
Income $30,000-$39,999 -.014 (.042) -.070 (.030)*
Income $40,000 or more -.002 (.047) -.085 (.033)**
Monthly <strong>of</strong>fending rate 1 year
pre-RA (violent <strong>of</strong>fense)
-.069 (.082) .133 (.058)*
Constant -.029 (.063) .131 (.045)**
* p ≤ .05; ** p ≤ .01; *** p ≤ .001.
Second-Stage Instrumental Number <strong>of</strong> observations = 1,559
Variables Regression Wald χ 2 (10 d.f.) = 192.81
Pr > χ 2 = .000
New Charged Violent Off. R 2 = .110
Term b S. E z p
Predicted treatment take-up -.007 .013 -.54 .586
Months in jail post-RA .020 .002 12.27 .000
Constant .010 .031 3.19 .001
Controlling for region, gender, race, age, SES and <strong>of</strong>fending history.
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