The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

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Table 2.6: Treatment <strong>Effects</strong> by Subgroup (All Offenses, 2-Year Follow Up) Region Gender Race Age at RA Income Offending rate per month at risk 1 year pre- RA Subgroup N Mean Pr. <strong>of</strong> Failure Northeast 339 .223 West 351 .178 Male 464 .214 Female 226 .172 White 283 .203 Nonwhite 407 .198 Under 25 34 .241 25-34 182 .237 35-44 176 .187 45-54 236 .186 55 + 62 .162 < $20,000 52 .251 $20,000-$29,999 261 .218 $30,000-$39,999 239 .223 $40,000 + 138 .108 No <strong>of</strong>fending 550 .209 Up to 1 125 .168 More than 1 15 .173 † 2-sample t-test or one-way ANOVA (F-test). t/F † p 3.85 .000 -3.29 .001 -.47 .641 4.92 .001 22.91 .000 3.67 .026 115
Table 2.7: Prevalence <strong>of</strong> Recidivism (Violent Offenses, 2-Year Follow Up) Logistic Regression Number <strong>of</strong> observations = 1,559 Likelihood Ratio χ 2 (10 d.f.) = 118.40 Pr > χ 2 = .000 Log likelihood = -247.480 Pseudo R 2 = .193 Term Odds Ratio S.E. z p Treatment group .89 .225 -.46 .644 West probation region .53 .167 -2.00 .045 Male 3.53 1.263 3.52 .000 White .93 .297 -.23 .820 Age at RA .97 .013 -2.13 .033 Income $20,000-$29,999 .46 .195 -1.83 .067 Income $30,000-$39,999 .32 .152 -2.41 .016 Income $40,000 or more .18 .099 -3.10 .002 Monthly <strong>of</strong>fending rate 1 year pre-RA (charged violent <strong>of</strong>f.) 2.61 1.139 2.20 .028 Months in jail post-RA 1.26 .030 9.47 .000 Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 for goodness-<strong>of</strong>-fit (8 d.f., 10 groups) = 5.82, p ≤ .668 116
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University of Penn
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In memory of Edwar
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Janel McCaffrey and Knakiya Hagans,
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traditional practice, we find no ev
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Methodology .......................
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Effect
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intensity makes no difference to re
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isk of committing
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impact of probatio
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which perhaps suggests that ISP is
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program intended to reduce the stra
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supervision with probation
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3. To what extent do the risk/need
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Methods Scale (SMS: Farrington et a
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Types of Outcomes
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Description of met
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actual behavior. We analyze technic
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Treatment of quali
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treatment group, and those to the r
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Discussion of Resu
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were evaluated in the same report (
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direction of effec
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To what extent does program philoso
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Which other components of</
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.450; technical violations: Q B < .
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it should be noted that those progr
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up in unpublished reports than thos
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violations first went before a judg
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2 One U.S. estimate indicates that
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Tables Table 1.1: Characteristics <
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Table 1.3: Moderator Variable <stro
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Table 1.4: Moderator Variable <stro
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Figures Figure 1.1: Effect
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Figure 1.5: Effect of</stro
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CHAPTER 2. ‘Low-Intensity
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What Works in Probation Supervision
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to do with it. Furthermore, the mor
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to the New York City and Oregon stu
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Barnes et al. (forthcoming) have su
Page 79 and 80: paradox.” He suggests that ‘not
Page 81 and 82: fatal shootings in Philadelphia are
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Page 85 and 86: Interventions and Follow-Up Probati
Page 87 and 88: officers more <str
Page 89 and 90: 1. Does the effect of</stro
Page 91 and 92: all, resulting in a large number <s
Page 93 and 94: Differential treatment take-up and
Page 95 and 96: control group members who received
Page 97 and 98: effect of LIS on r
Page 99 and 100: incarcerated must also be removed f
Page 101 and 102: offenders in our s
Page 103 and 104: ecidivists in the sample, 77 commit
Page 105 and 106: (IRR = 1.41, p ≤ .107). SES did n
Page 107 and 108: probability of fai
Page 109 and 110: The count model ou
Page 111 and 112: estimate is also practically identi
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Page 115 and 116: an end. On the other hand, research
Page 117 and 118: low-intensity supervision would imp
Page 119 and 120: Conclusion The aim
Page 121 and 122: We found that low-risk of</
Page 123 and 124: 7 LIS participants who were transfe
Page 125 and 126: Tables Table 2.1: Sample Characteri
Page 127 and 128: Table 2.3: Frequency of</st
Page 129: Table 2.5: Instrumental Variables M
Page 133 and 134: Table 2.9: Time to Failure (Violent
Page 135 and 136: Table 2.12: Treatment Effect by Sub
Page 137 and 138: Table 2.14: Frequency of</s
Page 139 and 140: Table 2.16: Instrumental Variables
Page 141 and 142: Figures Figure 2.1: Risk-Based Allo
Page 143 and 144: Figure 2.5: Survival Time for LIS E
Page 145 and 146: CHAPTER 3. Risk Prediction for Effe
Page 147 and 148: sensitivity of the
Page 149 and 150: Programs should be designed to adhe
Page 151 and 152: weight information in an appropriat
Page 153 and 154: statistical model that would predic
Page 155 and 156: The Philadelphia m
Page 157 and 158: assignment pool. Backfill probation
Page 159 and 160: Little research has been done on th
Page 161 and 162: already predicted to be at low risk
Page 163 and 164: It assumes that if of</stro
Page 165 and 166: involved. Crimes that obviously met
Page 167 and 168: We examine the potential interactio
Page 169 and 170: age is based on this date regardles
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Page 173 and 174: of low-intensity s
Page 175 and 176: classified as low risk. The
Page 177 and 178: All the risk ratios in Table 3.9 in
Page 179 and 180: 0.55. Raising the threshold results
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are partly selected on the basis <s
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make up the majority of</st
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strategy allows probation o
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Notes 1 In this study, murder, atte
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Table 3.2: Sample Characteristics (
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Table 3.6: Predictive Ability at Al
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Table 3.9: Post-Random Assignment O
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APPENDICES Appendix A: Systematic R
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combination. The s
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B. ELIGIBILITY CHECKLIST B1. First
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Other: txcxloth C6d. Additional pro
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D. SAMPLE LEVEL CODING SHEET Instru
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E. DEPENDENT VARIABLE CODING SHEET
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F14. Comparison group sample size f
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weight w is then recalculated (6),
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Study Sheffield (Males) 1976 (Folka
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Study Dallas TX 1992 (Turner & Pete
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Study Minnesota ISR 1995 (Deschenes
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Study Clark WA 2003 (Barnoski, 2003
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Study Whatcom WA 2003 (Barnoski, 20
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Study Los Angeles CA 2005 (Zhang &
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Fed. Prob., 56, 12-17. Turner, Pete
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Study Reference Benekos & Sonnenber
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Study Reference Giblin (2002) Using
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Study Reference Lasater et al. (n.d
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Study Reference Robertson (2000) Co
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Study Reference Turner & Greene (19
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Appendix E: Philadelphia APPD Low-<
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Prevalence of Reci
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Frequency of Recid
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Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
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Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
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Post-RA Months in Jail and Probabil
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Scaled Schoenfeld Residuals Time =
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Chapter 1 ** Denotes t
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Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (197
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Glaze, L. E, & Bonczar, T. P. (2009
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MacKenzie, D. L. (2006a). What work
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Petersilia, J., Turner, S., & Desch
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safety first: 13 strategies for suc
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Wilson, D. B. (2010). Meta-analysis
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Angrist, J. D. (2006). Instrumental
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Clear, T. R., & Hardyman, P. L. (19
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period266.pdf Lowenkamp, C. T., Lat
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Rosch, J. (2006). Deviant peer cont
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Taxman, F. S., & Thanner, M. (2006)
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statistical learning. Journal <stro
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Federal Bureau of
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Marsh, K., & Fox, C., (2008). <stro
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Sherman, L. W. (1993). Defiance, de
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