The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

Table 3.7: Predictive Ability at Alternative Thresholds (Victim/Damage Offenses)
Cutpoint
Positive
Predictive
Value (%)
Negative
Predictive
Value (%)
Sensitivity
(%)
177
Specificity
(%)
False
Positives
(%)
False
Negatives
(%)
0.05 88.2 - 100.0 0.0 11.8 -
0.1 88.2 - 100.0 0.0 11.8 -
0.15 88.2 - 100.0 0.0 11.8 -
0.2 88.3 60.0 99.9 1.0 11.7 40.0
0.25 88.6 29.3 98.2 5.5 11.4 70.7
0.3 89.1 24.4 94.2 13.9 10.9 75.6
0.35 89.7 21.2 87.3 25.5 10.3 78.8
0.4 90.6 20.6 80.4 37.7 9.4 79.4
0.45 91.0 18.3 71.9 46.8 9.0 81.7
0.5 91.8 17.5 63.7 57.4 8.2 82.5
0.55 92.8 16.3 51.5 70.3 7.2 83.7
0.6 93.5 15.1 40.0 79.4 6.5 84.9
0.65 93.5 14.0 30.1 84.5 6.5 86.0
0.7 94.9 13.5 21.0 91.6 5.1 86.5
0.75 95.6 12.9 13.2 95.5 4.4 87.1
0.8 98.4 12.6 7.9 99.0 1.6 87.4
0.85 97.3 12.1 3.1 99.4 2.7 87.9
0.9 100.0 11.9 1.0 100.0 0.0 88.1
0.95 88.2 0.0 100.0 0.0 11.8 100.0
Table 3.8: Post-Random Assignment Serious Offending in Experimental Sample
Treatment Group
(N=800)
Control Group
(N=759)
Model-Defined
% Post 2.5 4.1
Risk Ratio .61
% Post 8.0 9.6
UCR Part I
Risk Ratio .83
% Post 6.9 8.7
Victim/Damage
Risk Ratio .79
No significant differences (χ 2 ).