The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

Table 2.8: Frequency <strong>of</strong> Recidivism (Violent Offenses, 2-Year Follow-Up)
Zero-Inflated Negative Number <strong>of</strong> observations = 1,559
Binomial Regression Nonzero observations = 77
Zero observations = 1,482
Inflation model = logit Likelihood Ratio χ 2 (9 d.f.) = 7.08
Log likelihood = -499.228 Pr > χ 2 = .629
Full Model
Incidence
Rate Ratio
S.E. z p
Treatment group .83 .205 -.75 .453
West probation region 1.18 .389 .49 .624
Male .87 .336 -.35 .724
White .99 .331 -.04 .966
Age at RA .98 .016 -1.08 .280
Income $20,000-$29,999 1.53 .717 .90 .366
Income $30,000-$39,999 1.24 .767 .34 .731
Income $40,000 or more 1.13 .767 .18 .857
Monthly <strong>of</strong>fending rate 1 year
pre-RA (charged violent <strong>of</strong>f.)
.34 .185 -1.98 .047
Log <strong>of</strong> post-RA months at risk [<strong>of</strong>fset]
Inflated Model b S.E. z p
Treatment group .109 .243 .45 .654
West probation region .444 .293 1.52 .130
Male -1.335 .350 -3.81 .000
White -.031 .301 -.10 .917
Age at RA .032 .013 2.53 .011
Income $20,000-$29,999 .522 .415 1.26 .209
Income $30,000-$39,999 .923 .459 2.01 .044
Income $40,000 or more 1.530 .547 2.80 .005
Monthly <strong>of</strong>fending rate 1 year
pre-RA (charged violent <strong>of</strong>f.)
-1.469 .814 -1.80 .071
Constant -1.441 .732 -1.97 .049
Log <strong>of</strong> post-RA months at risk [<strong>of</strong>fset]
Ln(Alpha) -.089 .268 -.33 .740
Alpha .915 .245
Vuong test <strong>of</strong> zero-inflated vs. standard negative binomial: z = 5.68, p < .001.
117