The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

1. Does the effect <strong>of</strong> LIS on recidivism (new charged <strong>of</strong>fenses) differ if we consider
recidivism frequency as well as participation?
2. Does assignment to LIS affect the time to failure?
3. Does differential treatment take-up affect the probability <strong>of</strong> recidivism?
4. Do the effects <strong>of</strong> LIS differ across <strong>of</strong>fender subgroups?
5. Do the outcomes for the above research questions hold across specific <strong>of</strong>fense types?
Analytic Strategy
Offending participation versus frequency
A common concern in criminal career research is the distinction between
<strong>of</strong>fending participation and <strong>of</strong>fending frequency. Participation refers to whether or not a
person was involved in criminal behavior (a dichotomous outcome), while frequency
refers to the number <strong>of</strong> crimes committed within a certain period <strong>of</strong> time. <strong>The</strong>se two
conceptualizations <strong>of</strong> crime outcomes are open to different interpretations. As Blumstein
et al. (1988) note in the context <strong>of</strong> lifetime <strong>of</strong>fending: “Participation distinguishes active
<strong>of</strong>fenders from non-<strong>of</strong>fenders within a population; frequency is a reflection <strong>of</strong> the degree
<strong>of</strong> individual criminal activity by those who are active <strong>of</strong>fenders” (p. 4). Thus, an
experimental intervention could produce differential effects on outcomes depending on
how the outcome is measured before and after treatment.
Ideally, we want an intervention that reduces participation and frequency <strong>of</strong>
recidivism, resulting in some <strong>of</strong>fenders desisting from crime completely and those that do
not at least re<strong>of</strong>fending less <strong>of</strong>ten. However, in practice we may see an impact on one but
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