The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

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ABSTRACT THE EFFECTS OF SANCTION INTENSITY ON CRIMINAL CONDUCT: A RANDOMIZED LOW-INTENSITY PROBATION EXPERIMENT Charlotte Elizabeth Gill John MacDonald Probation is a well-established part <strong>of</strong> our criminal justice toolkit, but we know surprisingly little about the circumstances under which it is effective. Attempts to increase supervision intensity for crime- and cost-saving purposes have yielded mixed results at best. This dissertation examines the theory and scientific evidence on the effectiveness <strong>of</strong> probation, and the impact <strong>of</strong> changing the intensity <strong>of</strong> probation sanctions on recidivism. First, we conduct a rigorous search and synthesis <strong>of</strong> the existing literature on intensive probation programs. We utilize meta-analysis to identify the circumstances under which such programs might be effective. We find no evidence that probationers in these programs fare better than their counterparts under traditional supervision. We call for further research into supervision approaches that emphasize behavioral management over contact frequency and caseload size. Second, we employ a range <strong>of</strong> statistical procedures to examine the viability <strong>of</strong> saving resources by reducing supervision for lowrisk <strong>of</strong>fenders. In a randomized controlled trial comparing low-intensity probation to v
traditional practice, we find no evidence that reducing supervision increases recidivism. We find that low-risk probationers are heterogeneous in their characteristics but homogeneous in their propensity to re<strong>of</strong>fend. <strong>The</strong>y appear to respond well regardless <strong>of</strong> the intensity <strong>of</strong> the sanction. Finally, we use epidemiological methods to evaluate the low-risk prediction model used in the experiment. We find that the model successfully identifies <strong>of</strong>fenders who are unlikely to commit serious <strong>of</strong>fenses, and is therefore a useful tool for diverting probationers to low-intensity supervision. In turn, low-intensity supervision is not associated with changes in <strong>of</strong>fending severity. Chapters 2 and 3 both conclude that low-intensity supervision is a safe strategy that works very well for a probation agency’s lowest-level <strong>of</strong>fenders. This dissertation contributes to knowledge by changing perceptions <strong>of</strong> the characteristics <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fenders and resource allocation in criminal justice supervision. We find that ‘more’ does not always mean ‘better,’ and there is no need to distribute expensive services equally. In a given probation population, the majority <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fenders will respond well no matter how little supervision they receive, so it makes sense to focus our attention on the minority that will not. vi
Page 1 and 2: University of Penn
Page 3 and 4: In memory of Edwar
Page 5: Janel McCaffrey and Knakiya Hagans,
Page 9 and 10: Methodology .......................
Page 11 and 12: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Effect
Page 13 and 14: intensity makes no difference to re
Page 15 and 16: isk of committing
Page 17 and 18: impact of probatio
Page 19 and 20: which perhaps suggests that ISP is
Page 21 and 22: program intended to reduce the stra
Page 23 and 24: supervision with probation
Page 25 and 26: 3. To what extent do the risk/need
Page 27 and 28: Methods Scale (SMS: Farrington et a
Page 29 and 30: Types of Outcomes
Page 31 and 32: Description of met
Page 33 and 34: actual behavior. We analyze technic
Page 35 and 36: Treatment of quali
Page 37 and 38: treatment group, and those to the r
Page 39 and 40: Discussion of Resu
Page 41 and 42: were evaluated in the same report (
Page 43 and 44: direction of effec
Page 45 and 46: To what extent does program philoso
Page 47 and 48: Which other components of</
Page 49 and 50: .450; technical violations: Q B < .
Page 51 and 52: it should be noted that those progr
Page 53 and 54: up in unpublished reports than thos
Page 55 and 56: violations first went before a judg
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2 One U.S. estimate indicates that
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Tables Table 1.1: Characteristics <
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Table 1.3: Moderator Variable <stro
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Table 1.4: Moderator Variable <stro
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Figures Figure 1.1: Effect
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Figure 1.5: Effect of</stro
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CHAPTER 2. ‘Low-Intensity
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What Works in Probation Supervision
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to do with it. Furthermore, the mor
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to the New York City and Oregon stu
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Barnes et al. (forthcoming) have su
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paradox.” He suggests that ‘not
Page 81 and 82:
fatal shootings in Philadelphia are
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the proportions of
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Interventions and Follow-Up Probati
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officers more <str
Page 89 and 90:
1. Does the effect of</stro
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all, resulting in a large number <s
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Differential treatment take-up and
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control group members who received
Page 97 and 98:
effect of LIS on r
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incarcerated must also be removed f
Page 101 and 102:
offenders in our s
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ecidivists in the sample, 77 commit
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(IRR = 1.41, p ≤ .107). SES did n
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probability of fai
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The count model ou
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estimate is also practically identi
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twice the risk of
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an end. On the other hand, research
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low-intensity supervision would imp
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Conclusion The aim
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We found that low-risk of</
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7 LIS participants who were transfe
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Tables Table 2.1: Sample Characteri
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Table 2.3: Frequency of</st
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Table 2.5: Instrumental Variables M
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Table 2.7: Prevalence of</s
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Table 2.9: Time to Failure (Violent
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Table 2.12: Treatment Effect by Sub
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Table 2.14: Frequency of</s
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Table 2.16: Instrumental Variables
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Figures Figure 2.1: Risk-Based Allo
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Figure 2.5: Survival Time for LIS E
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CHAPTER 3. Risk Prediction for Effe
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sensitivity of the
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Programs should be designed to adhe
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weight information in an appropriat
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statistical model that would predic
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The Philadelphia m
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assignment pool. Backfill probation
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Little research has been done on th
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already predicted to be at low risk
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It assumes that if of</stro
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involved. Crimes that obviously met
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We examine the potential interactio
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age is based on this date regardles
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obberies. The only
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of low-intensity s
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classified as low risk. The
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All the risk ratios in Table 3.9 in
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0.55. Raising the threshold results
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are partly selected on the basis <s
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make up the majority of</st
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strategy allows probation o
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Notes 1 In this study, murder, atte
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Table 3.2: Sample Characteristics (
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Table 3.6: Predictive Ability at Al
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Table 3.9: Post-Random Assignment O
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APPENDICES Appendix A: Systematic R
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combination. The s
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B. ELIGIBILITY CHECKLIST B1. First
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Other: txcxloth C6d. Additional pro
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D. SAMPLE LEVEL CODING SHEET Instru
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E. DEPENDENT VARIABLE CODING SHEET
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F14. Comparison group sample size f
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weight w is then recalculated (6),
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Study Sheffield (Males) 1976 (Folka
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Study Dallas TX 1992 (Turner & Pete
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Study Minnesota ISR 1995 (Deschenes
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Study Clark WA 2003 (Barnoski, 2003
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Study Whatcom WA 2003 (Barnoski, 20
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Study Los Angeles CA 2005 (Zhang &
Page 223 and 224:
Fed. Prob., 56, 12-17. Turner, Pete
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Study Reference Benekos & Sonnenber
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Study Reference Giblin (2002) Using
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Study Reference Lasater et al. (n.d
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Study Reference Robertson (2000) Co
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Study Reference Turner & Greene (19
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Appendix E: Philadelphia APPD Low-<
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Prevalence of Reci
Page 239 and 240:
Frequency of Recid
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Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
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Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
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Post-RA Months in Jail and Probabil
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Scaled Schoenfeld Residuals Time =
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Chapter 1 ** Denotes t
Page 251 and 252:
Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (197
Page 253 and 254:
Glaze, L. E, & Bonczar, T. P. (2009
Page 255 and 256:
MacKenzie, D. L. (2006a). What work
Page 257 and 258:
Petersilia, J., Turner, S., & Desch
Page 259 and 260:
safety first: 13 strategies for suc
Page 261 and 262:
Wilson, D. B. (2010). Meta-analysis
Page 263 and 264:
Angrist, J. D. (2006). Instrumental
Page 265 and 266:
Clear, T. R., & Hardyman, P. L. (19
Page 267 and 268:
period266.pdf Lowenkamp, C. T., Lat
Page 269 and 270:
Rosch, J. (2006). Deviant peer cont
Page 271 and 272:
Taxman, F. S., & Thanner, M. (2006)
Page 273 and 274:
statistical learning. Journal <stro
Page 275 and 276:
Federal Bureau of
Page 277 and 278:
Marsh, K., & Fox, C., (2008). <stro
Page 279:
Sherman, L. W. (1993). Defiance, de
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