The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

CHAPTER 3. Risk Prediction for Effective Offender Management:
Patterns <strong>of</strong> Offending Severity among Probationers.
Introduction
Probation in the early twentieth century was generally used as a disposition for
first-time or minor <strong>of</strong>fenders, while felons and recidivists tended to receive parole after
incarceration. By mid-century, the use <strong>of</strong> probation expanded as interest in rehabilitation
and community corrections increased (Clear & Braga, 1995). <strong>The</strong> backlash against
community sentences and the pervasive retributive attitude to punishment since the 1970s
has continued to pressurize probation agencies, as many struggle to deal with supervising
parolees on their release from prison alongside <strong>of</strong>fenders on more intensive probation
programs. Furthermore, probation is now frequently used in addition to, rather than in
place <strong>of</strong>, a jail or prison sentence (Ruth & Reitz, 2003). <strong>The</strong> complementary use <strong>of</strong>
probation and prison may increase the number <strong>of</strong> serious <strong>of</strong>fenders who come under the
supervision <strong>of</strong> probation agencies, placing a strain on their limited resources. Figures
from Philadelphia’s Adult Probation and Parole Department (APPD) indicate the extent
<strong>of</strong> the problem: in 2006, over 22 per cent <strong>of</strong> murder arrestees and 16 per cent <strong>of</strong> homicide
victims in the city were under community supervision (Berk et al., 2009, p. 192).
Sherman (2007, p. 843) has argued that in the absence <strong>of</strong> short-term solutions to
funding problems, probation agencies should focus their efforts on these most serious
cases, “perform[ing] triage on their caseload to concentrate scarce resources on homicide
prevention” at the expense <strong>of</strong> closely supervising <strong>of</strong>fenders who pose little threat <strong>of</strong> harm
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