The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

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Search strategy for identification <strong>of</strong> relevant studies We used several strategies to conduct a comprehensive search for literature on probation intensity. Our main source <strong>of</strong> information was the Internet. References were found through keyword searches <strong>of</strong> online abstract databases and the websites <strong>of</strong> research organizations and government agencies (see Appendix A for lists <strong>of</strong> keywords and the databases and websites searched). Specialist search engines like Google Scholar also provide a rich source <strong>of</strong> ‘grey literature.’ 5 We also consulted lists <strong>of</strong> references from existing reviews <strong>of</strong> probation supervision and intensity, and <strong>of</strong> randomized trials in general (Petersilia & Turner, 1993; Phipps et al., 1999; Taxman, 2002; Weisburd, Sherman, & Petrosino, 1990), and book and micr<strong>of</strong>ilm collections at the University <strong>of</strong> Pennsylvania library. We supplemented the online searches with hand searches <strong>of</strong> key journals in the field. 6 Every effort was made to locate unpublished material where possible. Most agencies now make reports available online for review or download, meaning we were able to obtain most <strong>of</strong> our references very quickly. However, many <strong>of</strong> the older reports that have not been digitally archived are harder to access. <strong>The</strong> University <strong>of</strong> Pennsylvania’s Inter-Library Loan service proved useful in locating some <strong>of</strong> these studies. Electronic references were downloaded to Zotero, a web-based program that captures, stores, and manages references. 7 Eligibility <strong>of</strong> studies was assessed by reading titles and abstracts, and obtaining the full text <strong>of</strong> documents that appeared to be relevant. 15
Description <strong>of</strong> methods used in primary research We located a wide range <strong>of</strong> evaluations testing a change in probation intensity. However, the BJA/RAND experiments from the 1980s (Petersilia & Turner, 1993) represent the ‘classic’ ISP model, and serve as a convenient illustration <strong>of</strong> a typical study design. <strong>The</strong> BJA/RAND studies were a fourteen-site randomized controlled trial <strong>of</strong> largely surveillance/control-oriented ISP programs. Two <strong>of</strong> the study sites compared ISP to incarceration (so were not eligible for inclusion in this review), while the remaining twelve contrasted ISP with supervision as usual (SAU) or existing intensive supervision models. Enhancements <strong>of</strong> both probation and parole supervision were tested. <strong>The</strong> exact nature <strong>of</strong> the program depended on the study site – each jurisdiction selected components <strong>of</strong> the Georgia ISP model for inclusion as it saw fit. Key common features <strong>of</strong> all the evaluations included smaller caseloads <strong>of</strong> around 25-30 <strong>of</strong>fenders per <strong>of</strong>ficer (usually compared to 100 or more in SAU), increased frequency <strong>of</strong> contact (usually at least once a week at first, gradually decreasing in phases), drug testing, and mandated employment. Participants in the ISP evaluations had to be adults. <strong>The</strong>ir risk levels varied, but they were generally more serious <strong>of</strong>fenders. Petersilia and Turner (1993) state: “People placed on enhancement ISPs [as opposed to prison diversion or early release] are generally deemed too serious to be supervised on routine caseloads” (p. 292). However, persons convicted <strong>of</strong> homicide, robbery, or sex crimes were excluded as a matter <strong>of</strong> policy from the experiment. Participants were primarily males in their late twenties to early thirties, with extensive criminal records. A substantial proportion <strong>of</strong> participants were drug dependent. <strong>The</strong> study sites set their own eligibility criteria for participants beyond these initial requirements. Participants were randomly assigned to treatment and 16
Page 1 and 2: University of Penn
Page 3 and 4: In memory of Edwar
Page 5 and 6: Janel McCaffrey and Knakiya Hagans,
Page 7 and 8: traditional practice, we find no ev
Page 9 and 10: Methodology .......................
Page 11 and 12: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Effect
Page 13 and 14: intensity makes no difference to re
Page 15 and 16: isk of committing
Page 17 and 18: impact of probatio
Page 19 and 20: which perhaps suggests that ISP is
Page 21 and 22: program intended to reduce the stra
Page 23 and 24: supervision with probation
Page 25 and 26: 3. To what extent do the risk/need
Page 27 and 28: Methods Scale (SMS: Farrington et a
Page 29: Types of Outcomes
Page 33 and 34: actual behavior. We analyze technic
Page 35 and 36: Treatment of quali
Page 37 and 38: treatment group, and those to the r
Page 39 and 40: Discussion of Resu
Page 41 and 42: were evaluated in the same report (
Page 43 and 44: direction of effec
Page 45 and 46: To what extent does program philoso
Page 47 and 48: Which other components of</
Page 49 and 50: .450; technical violations: Q B < .
Page 51 and 52: it should be noted that those progr
Page 53 and 54: up in unpublished reports than thos
Page 55 and 56: violations first went before a judg
Page 57 and 58: 2 One U.S. estimate indicates that
Page 59 and 60: Tables Table 1.1: Characteristics <
Page 61 and 62: Table 1.3: Moderator Variable <stro
Page 63 and 64: Table 1.4: Moderator Variable <stro
Page 65 and 66: Figures Figure 1.1: Effect
Page 67 and 68: Figure 1.5: Effect of</stro
Page 69 and 70: CHAPTER 2. ‘Low-Intensity
Page 71 and 72: What Works in Probation Supervision
Page 73 and 74: to do with it. Furthermore, the mor
Page 75 and 76: to the New York City and Oregon stu
Page 77 and 78: Barnes et al. (forthcoming) have su
Page 79 and 80: paradox.” He suggests that ‘not
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fatal shootings in Philadelphia are
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the proportions of
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Interventions and Follow-Up Probati
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officers more <str
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1. Does the effect of</stro
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all, resulting in a large number <s
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Differential treatment take-up and
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control group members who received
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effect of LIS on r
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incarcerated must also be removed f
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offenders in our s
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ecidivists in the sample, 77 commit
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(IRR = 1.41, p ≤ .107). SES did n
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probability of fai
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The count model ou
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estimate is also practically identi
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twice the risk of
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an end. On the other hand, research
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low-intensity supervision would imp
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Conclusion The aim
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We found that low-risk of</
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7 LIS participants who were transfe
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Tables Table 2.1: Sample Characteri
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Table 2.3: Frequency of</st
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Table 2.5: Instrumental Variables M
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Table 2.7: Prevalence of</s
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Table 2.9: Time to Failure (Violent
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Table 2.12: Treatment Effect by Sub
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Table 2.14: Frequency of</s
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Table 2.16: Instrumental Variables
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Figures Figure 2.1: Risk-Based Allo
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Figure 2.5: Survival Time for LIS E
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CHAPTER 3. Risk Prediction for Effe
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sensitivity of the
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Programs should be designed to adhe
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weight information in an appropriat
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statistical model that would predic
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The Philadelphia m
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assignment pool. Backfill probation
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Little research has been done on th
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already predicted to be at low risk
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It assumes that if of</stro
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involved. Crimes that obviously met
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We examine the potential interactio
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age is based on this date regardles
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obberies. The only
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of low-intensity s
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classified as low risk. The
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All the risk ratios in Table 3.9 in
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0.55. Raising the threshold results
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are partly selected on the basis <s
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make up the majority of</st
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strategy allows probation o
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Notes 1 In this study, murder, atte
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Table 3.2: Sample Characteristics (
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Table 3.6: Predictive Ability at Al
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Table 3.9: Post-Random Assignment O
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APPENDICES Appendix A: Systematic R
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combination. The s
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B. ELIGIBILITY CHECKLIST B1. First
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Other: txcxloth C6d. Additional pro
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D. SAMPLE LEVEL CODING SHEET Instru
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E. DEPENDENT VARIABLE CODING SHEET
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F14. Comparison group sample size f
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weight w is then recalculated (6),
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Study Sheffield (Males) 1976 (Folka
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Study Dallas TX 1992 (Turner & Pete
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Study Minnesota ISR 1995 (Deschenes
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Study Clark WA 2003 (Barnoski, 2003
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Study Whatcom WA 2003 (Barnoski, 20
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Study Los Angeles CA 2005 (Zhang &
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Fed. Prob., 56, 12-17. Turner, Pete
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Study Reference Benekos & Sonnenber
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Study Reference Giblin (2002) Using
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Study Reference Lasater et al. (n.d
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Study Reference Robertson (2000) Co
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Study Reference Turner & Greene (19
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Appendix E: Philadelphia APPD Low-<
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Prevalence of Reci
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Frequency of Recid
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Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
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Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
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Post-RA Months in Jail and Probabil
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Scaled Schoenfeld Residuals Time =
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Chapter 1 ** Denotes t
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Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (197
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Glaze, L. E, & Bonczar, T. P. (2009
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MacKenzie, D. L. (2006a). What work
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Petersilia, J., Turner, S., & Desch
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safety first: 13 strategies for suc
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Wilson, D. B. (2010). Meta-analysis
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Angrist, J. D. (2006). Instrumental
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Clear, T. R., & Hardyman, P. L. (19
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period266.pdf Lowenkamp, C. T., Lat
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Rosch, J. (2006). Deviant peer cont
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Taxman, F. S., & Thanner, M. (2006)
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statistical learning. Journal <stro
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Federal Bureau of
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Marsh, K., & Fox, C., (2008). <stro
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Sherman, L. W. (1993). Defiance, de
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