The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

traditional practice, we find no evidence that reducing supervision increases recidivism.
We find that low-risk probationers are heterogeneous in their characteristics but
homogeneous in their propensity to re<strong>of</strong>fend. <strong>The</strong>y appear to respond well regardless <strong>of</strong>
the intensity <strong>of</strong> the sanction. Finally, we use epidemiological methods to evaluate the
low-risk prediction model used in the experiment. We find that the model successfully
identifies <strong>of</strong>fenders who are unlikely to commit serious <strong>of</strong>fenses, and is therefore a useful
tool for diverting probationers to low-intensity supervision.
In turn, low-intensity
supervision is not associated with changes in <strong>of</strong>fending severity. Chapters 2 and 3 both
conclude that low-intensity supervision is a safe strategy that works very well for a
probation agency’s lowest-level <strong>of</strong>fenders.
This dissertation contributes to knowledge by changing perceptions <strong>of</strong> the
characteristics <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fenders and resource allocation in criminal justice supervision. We
find that ‘more’ does not always mean ‘better,’ and there is no need to distribute
expensive services equally. In a given probation population, the majority <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fenders
will respond well no matter how little supervision they receive, so it makes sense to focus
our attention on the minority that will not.
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