The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk
The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk
The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk
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Table 2.5: Instrumental Variables Model: Prevalence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Recidivism (All Offenses, 2-<br />
Year Follow-Up)<br />
First Stage<br />
Treatment Take-Up<br />
Reduced Form (ITT)<br />
Post-RA Any Off.<br />
Observati<strong>on</strong>s = 1,559 Observati<strong>on</strong>s = 1,559<br />
R 2 = .663 R 2 = .193<br />
Adjusted R 2 = .659 Adjusted R 2 = .183<br />
Instruments b (S.E.) b (S.E.)<br />
Assigned LIS .812 (.088)*** -.047 (.113)<br />
Assigned LIS*West -.075 (.035)* -.007 (.045)<br />
Assigned LIS*Male .014 (.032) -.004 (.040)<br />
Assigned LIS*White -.024 (.037) .029 (.048)<br />
Assigned LIS*Age -.000 (.001) -.001 (.002)<br />
Assigned LIS*Income20 .026 (.057) .111 (.073)<br />
Assigned LIS*Income30 .086 (.060) .095 (.077)<br />
Assigned LIS*Income40 .028 (.066) .122 (.085)<br />
Assigned LIS*Prior <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fending -.030 (.027)* .032 (.035)<br />
Exogenous<br />
M<strong>on</strong>ths in jail post-RA -.014 (.002)*** . 052 (.003)***<br />
West probati<strong>on</strong> regi<strong>on</strong> .055 (.025)* -.068 (.032)*<br />
Male .009 (.023) .031 (.029)<br />
White .009 (.027) -.017 (.034)<br />
Age at RA .001 (.001) -.002 (.001)<br />
Income $20,000-$29,999 -.002 (.039) -.126 (.050)*<br />
Income $30,000-$39,999 -.013 (.042) -.139 (.054)**<br />
Income $40,000 or more -.002 (.047) -.245 (.060)***<br />
M<strong>on</strong>thly <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fending rate 1 year<br />
pre-RA (any <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fense)<br />
-.012 (.022) -.024 (.028)<br />
C<strong>on</strong>stant -.025 (.064) .408 (.081)***<br />
* p ≤ .05; ** p ≤ .01; *** p ≤ .001.<br />
Sec<strong>on</strong>d-Stage Instrumental Number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> observati<strong>on</strong>s = 1,559<br />
Variables Regressi<strong>on</strong> Wald χ 2 (10 d.f.) = 364.12<br />
Pr > χ 2 = .000<br />
Any New Charged Offense R 2 = .189<br />
Term b S. E. Z p<br />
Predicted Treatment Take-up .009 .023 .40 .686<br />
M<strong>on</strong>ths in jail post-RA .052 .003 17.50 .000<br />
C<strong>on</strong>stant .383 .057 6.76 .000<br />
C<strong>on</strong>trolling for regi<strong>on</strong>, gender, race, age, SES and <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fending history.<br />
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