The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

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TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................v TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................vii LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................................ix LIST OF FIGURES.......................................................................................................x PREFACE.....................................................................................................................xi CHAPTER 1. Is ‘More’ Really ‘Better’? <strong>The</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> Intensive Probation Supervision on Recidivism. ...........................................................................................1 Introduction.................................................................................................................1 Background .................................................................................................................3 <strong>The</strong> Present Study........................................................................................................9 Systematic Review Methodology...............................................................................10 Analytic Strategy.......................................................................................................20 Discussion <strong>of</strong> Results.................................................................................................24 Conclusion ................................................................................................................37 Notes.........................................................................................................................41 Tables........................................................................................................................44 Figures ......................................................................................................................50 CHAPTER 2. ‘Low-<strong>Intensity</strong>’ Probation: Is It a Viable Policy for Low-Risk Offenders? ...................................................................................................................54 Introduction...............................................................................................................54 What Works in Probation Supervision? .....................................................................56 <strong>The</strong>ories <strong>of</strong> Probation ................................................................................................60 <strong>The</strong> Philadelphia APPD Low Risk Experiment..........................................................65 Analytic Strategy.......................................................................................................74 Results.......................................................................................................................88 Discussion .................................................................................................................98 Conclusion ..............................................................................................................104 Notes.......................................................................................................................107 Tables......................................................................................................................110 Figures ....................................................................................................................126 CHAPTER 3. Risk Prediction for Effective Offender Management: Patterns <strong>of</strong> Offending Severity among Probationers. .................................................................130 Introduction.............................................................................................................130 Risk Prediction in Offender Management ................................................................132 <strong>The</strong> Philadelphia APPD Low Risk Model and Supervision Experiment ...................137 <strong>The</strong> Present Study....................................................................................................143 vii
Methodology ...........................................................................................................144 Results.....................................................................................................................155 Discussion ...............................................................................................................163 Conclusion ..............................................................................................................169 Notes.......................................................................................................................172 Tables......................................................................................................................173 Figures ....................................................................................................................179 APPENDICES ...........................................................................................................180 Appendix A: Systematic Review Search Strategy ....................................................180 Appendix B: Systematic Review Coding Protocol ...................................................183 Appendix C: Meta-Analytic Procedures...................................................................193 Appendix D: Details <strong>of</strong> Included and Excluded Studies ...........................................195 Appendix E: Philadelphia APPD Low-<strong>Intensity</strong> Supervision Protocol .....................220 Appendix F: Logistic, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, and Two-Stage Least Squares Regression Models Without Jail Time Controls .......................................................221 Appendix G: Conditional Distributions <strong>of</strong> Selected Model Covariates and Outcome229 Appendix H: Diagnostics for Proportional Hazards Models .....................................231 Appendix J: Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Value .......................................233 BIBLIOGRAPHY .....................................................................................................234 Chapter 1.................................................................................................................234 Chapter 2.................................................................................................................246 Chapter 3.................................................................................................................257 viii
Page 1 and 2: University of Penn
Page 3 and 4: In memory of Edwar
Page 5 and 6: Janel McCaffrey and Knakiya Hagans,
Page 7: traditional practice, we find no ev
Page 11 and 12: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Effect
Page 13 and 14: intensity makes no difference to re
Page 15 and 16: isk of committing
Page 17 and 18: impact of probatio
Page 19 and 20: which perhaps suggests that ISP is
Page 21 and 22: program intended to reduce the stra
Page 23 and 24: supervision with probation
Page 25 and 26: 3. To what extent do the risk/need
Page 27 and 28: Methods Scale (SMS: Farrington et a
Page 29 and 30: Types of Outcomes
Page 31 and 32: Description of met
Page 33 and 34: actual behavior. We analyze technic
Page 35 and 36: Treatment of quali
Page 37 and 38: treatment group, and those to the r
Page 39 and 40: Discussion of Resu
Page 41 and 42: were evaluated in the same report (
Page 43 and 44: direction of effec
Page 45 and 46: To what extent does program philoso
Page 47 and 48: Which other components of</
Page 49 and 50: .450; technical violations: Q B < .
Page 51 and 52: it should be noted that those progr
Page 53 and 54: up in unpublished reports than thos
Page 55 and 56: violations first went before a judg
Page 57 and 58: 2 One U.S. estimate indicates that
Page 59 and 60:
Tables Table 1.1: Characteristics <
Page 61 and 62:
Table 1.3: Moderator Variable <stro
Page 63 and 64:
Table 1.4: Moderator Variable <stro
Page 65 and 66:
Figures Figure 1.1: Effect
Page 67 and 68:
Figure 1.5: Effect of</stro
Page 69 and 70:
CHAPTER 2. ‘Low-Intensity
Page 71 and 72:
What Works in Probation Supervision
Page 73 and 74:
to do with it. Furthermore, the mor
Page 75 and 76:
to the New York City and Oregon stu
Page 77 and 78:
Barnes et al. (forthcoming) have su
Page 79 and 80:
paradox.” He suggests that ‘not
Page 81 and 82:
fatal shootings in Philadelphia are
Page 83 and 84:
the proportions of
Page 85 and 86:
Interventions and Follow-Up Probati
Page 87 and 88:
officers more <str
Page 89 and 90:
1. Does the effect of</stro
Page 91 and 92:
all, resulting in a large number <s
Page 93 and 94:
Differential treatment take-up and
Page 95 and 96:
control group members who received
Page 97 and 98:
effect of LIS on r
Page 99 and 100:
incarcerated must also be removed f
Page 101 and 102:
offenders in our s
Page 103 and 104:
ecidivists in the sample, 77 commit
Page 105 and 106:
(IRR = 1.41, p ≤ .107). SES did n
Page 107 and 108:
probability of fai
Page 109 and 110:
The count model ou
Page 111 and 112:
estimate is also practically identi
Page 113 and 114:
twice the risk of
Page 115 and 116:
an end. On the other hand, research
Page 117 and 118:
low-intensity supervision would imp
Page 119 and 120:
Conclusion The aim
Page 121 and 122:
We found that low-risk of</
Page 123 and 124:
7 LIS participants who were transfe
Page 125 and 126:
Tables Table 2.1: Sample Characteri
Page 127 and 128:
Table 2.3: Frequency of</st
Page 129 and 130:
Table 2.5: Instrumental Variables M
Page 131 and 132:
Table 2.7: Prevalence of</s
Page 133 and 134:
Table 2.9: Time to Failure (Violent
Page 135 and 136:
Table 2.12: Treatment Effect by Sub
Page 137 and 138:
Table 2.14: Frequency of</s
Page 139 and 140:
Table 2.16: Instrumental Variables
Page 141 and 142:
Figures Figure 2.1: Risk-Based Allo
Page 143 and 144:
Figure 2.5: Survival Time for LIS E
Page 145 and 146:
CHAPTER 3. Risk Prediction for Effe
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sensitivity of the
Page 149 and 150:
Programs should be designed to adhe
Page 151 and 152:
weight information in an appropriat
Page 153 and 154:
statistical model that would predic
Page 155 and 156:
The Philadelphia m
Page 157 and 158:
assignment pool. Backfill probation
Page 159 and 160:
Little research has been done on th
Page 161 and 162:
already predicted to be at low risk
Page 163 and 164:
It assumes that if of</stro
Page 165 and 166:
involved. Crimes that obviously met
Page 167 and 168:
We examine the potential interactio
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age is based on this date regardles
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obberies. The only
Page 173 and 174:
of low-intensity s
Page 175 and 176:
classified as low risk. The
Page 177 and 178:
All the risk ratios in Table 3.9 in
Page 179 and 180:
0.55. Raising the threshold results
Page 181 and 182:
are partly selected on the basis <s
Page 183 and 184:
make up the majority of</st
Page 185 and 186:
strategy allows probation o
Page 187 and 188:
Notes 1 In this study, murder, atte
Page 189 and 190:
Table 3.2: Sample Characteristics (
Page 191 and 192:
Table 3.6: Predictive Ability at Al
Page 193 and 194:
Table 3.9: Post-Random Assignment O
Page 195 and 196:
APPENDICES Appendix A: Systematic R
Page 197 and 198:
combination. The s
Page 199 and 200:
B. ELIGIBILITY CHECKLIST B1. First
Page 201 and 202:
Other: txcxloth C6d. Additional pro
Page 203 and 204:
D. SAMPLE LEVEL CODING SHEET Instru
Page 205 and 206:
E. DEPENDENT VARIABLE CODING SHEET
Page 207 and 208:
F14. Comparison group sample size f
Page 209 and 210:
weight w is then recalculated (6),
Page 211 and 212:
Study Sheffield (Males) 1976 (Folka
Page 213 and 214:
Study Dallas TX 1992 (Turner & Pete
Page 215 and 216:
Study Minnesota ISR 1995 (Deschenes
Page 217 and 218:
Study Clark WA 2003 (Barnoski, 2003
Page 219 and 220:
Study Whatcom WA 2003 (Barnoski, 20
Page 221 and 222:
Study Los Angeles CA 2005 (Zhang &
Page 223 and 224:
Fed. Prob., 56, 12-17. Turner, Pete
Page 225 and 226:
Study Reference Benekos & Sonnenber
Page 227 and 228:
Study Reference Giblin (2002) Using
Page 229 and 230:
Study Reference Lasater et al. (n.d
Page 231 and 232:
Study Reference Robertson (2000) Co
Page 233 and 234:
Study Reference Turner & Greene (19
Page 235 and 236:
Appendix E: Philadelphia APPD Low-<
Page 237 and 238:
Prevalence of Reci
Page 239 and 240:
Frequency of Recid
Page 241 and 242:
Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
Page 243 and 244:
Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
Page 245 and 246:
Post-RA Months in Jail and Probabil
Page 247 and 248:
Scaled Schoenfeld Residuals Time =
Page 249 and 250:
BIBLIOGRAPHY Chapter 1 ** Denotes t
Page 251 and 252:
Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (197
Page 253 and 254:
Glaze, L. E, & Bonczar, T. P. (2009
Page 255 and 256:
MacKenzie, D. L. (2006a). What work
Page 257 and 258:
Petersilia, J., Turner, S., & Desch
Page 259 and 260:
safety first: 13 strategies for suc
Page 261 and 262:
Wilson, D. B. (2010). Meta-analysis
Page 263 and 264:
Angrist, J. D. (2006). Instrumental
Page 265 and 266:
Clear, T. R., & Hardyman, P. L. (19
Page 267 and 268:
period266.pdf Lowenkamp, C. T., Lat
Page 269 and 270:
Rosch, J. (2006). Deviant peer cont
Page 271 and 272:
Taxman, F. S., & Thanner, M. (2006)
Page 273 and 274:
statistical learning. Journal <stro
Page 275 and 276:
Federal Bureau of
Page 277 and 278:
Marsh, K., & Fox, C., (2008). <stro
Page 279:
Sherman, L. W. (1993). Defiance, de
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