The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

Although it is unlikely that we would be able to learn the full details <strong>of</strong> the <strong>of</strong>fense and
subsequent criminal justice decision-making processes, it should be possible to take into
account the ultimate disposition <strong>of</strong> the charge in future analyses.
Conclusion
This paper examined patterns <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fending severity in a sample <strong>of</strong> probationers in
order to assess how risk can best be predicted and managed for the effective operation <strong>of</strong>
a probation agency.
As the use <strong>of</strong> probation continues to grow, and especially as
<strong>of</strong>fenders who pose a significant threat <strong>of</strong> harm to society are placed under community
supervision, creative resource allocation is required to manage these <strong>of</strong>fenders
effectively.
Risk prediction techniques have been used in probation and other criminal justice
agencies for one-hundred years, with varying success. <strong>The</strong> Philadelphia Adult Probation
and Parole Department and the University <strong>of</strong> Pennsylvania developed a new statistical
risk prediction model that differs from other instruments in two main ways: it attempts to
operationalize the clinical, informal decision rules already used by probation <strong>of</strong>ficers in
the department, and it focuses only on predicting a handful <strong>of</strong> crimes considered to be the
most detrimental to public safety and confidence in the criminal justice system. <strong>The</strong>
ultimate goal in creating the model was to provide a tool for classifying the entire APPD
caseload along risk-based lines, and channeling a majority <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fenders who posed little
risk <strong>of</strong> serious harm into a large caseload receiving reduced intensity supervision. This
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