The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

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THE EFFECTS OF SANCTION INTENSITY ON CRIMINAL CONDUCT: A RANDOMIZED LOW-INTENSITY PROBATION EXPERIMENT Charlotte Elizabeth Gill A DISSERTATION in Criminology Presented to the Faculties <strong>of</strong> the University <strong>of</strong> Pennsylvania In Partial Fulfillment <strong>of</strong> the Requirements for the Degree <strong>of</strong> Doctor <strong>of</strong> Philosophy 2010 Supervisor <strong>of</strong> Dissertation _________________________________ John M. MacDonald, Associate Pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> Criminology Graduate Group Chairperson _________________________________ William Laufer, Pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> Criminology, Sociology, and Legal Studies & Business Ethics Dissertation Committee: John M. MacDonald, Associate Pr<strong>of</strong>essor, Criminology Lawrence W. Sherman, Director, Jerry Lee Center <strong>of</strong> Criminology Paul Allison, Pr<strong>of</strong>essor, Sociology
In memory <strong>of</strong> Edward Routledge & Allan Routledge ii
Page 1: University of Penn
Page 5 and 6: Janel McCaffrey and Knakiya Hagans,
Page 7 and 8: traditional practice, we find no ev
Page 9 and 10: Methodology .......................
Page 11 and 12: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Effect
Page 13 and 14: intensity makes no difference to re
Page 15 and 16: isk of committing
Page 17 and 18: impact of probatio
Page 19 and 20: which perhaps suggests that ISP is
Page 21 and 22: program intended to reduce the stra
Page 23 and 24: supervision with probation
Page 25 and 26: 3. To what extent do the risk/need
Page 27 and 28: Methods Scale (SMS: Farrington et a
Page 29 and 30: Types of Outcomes
Page 31 and 32: Description of met
Page 33 and 34: actual behavior. We analyze technic
Page 35 and 36: Treatment of quali
Page 37 and 38: treatment group, and those to the r
Page 39 and 40: Discussion of Resu
Page 41 and 42: were evaluated in the same report (
Page 43 and 44: direction of effec
Page 45 and 46: To what extent does program philoso
Page 47 and 48: Which other components of</
Page 49 and 50: .450; technical violations: Q B < .
Page 51 and 52: it should be noted that those progr
Page 53 and 54:
up in unpublished reports than thos
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violations first went before a judg
Page 57 and 58:
2 One U.S. estimate indicates that
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Tables Table 1.1: Characteristics <
Page 61 and 62:
Table 1.3: Moderator Variable <stro
Page 63 and 64:
Table 1.4: Moderator Variable <stro
Page 65 and 66:
Figures Figure 1.1: Effect
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Figure 1.5: Effect of</stro
Page 69 and 70:
CHAPTER 2. ‘Low-Intensity
Page 71 and 72:
What Works in Probation Supervision
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to do with it. Furthermore, the mor
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to the New York City and Oregon stu
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Barnes et al. (forthcoming) have su
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paradox.” He suggests that ‘not
Page 81 and 82:
fatal shootings in Philadelphia are
Page 83 and 84:
the proportions of
Page 85 and 86:
Interventions and Follow-Up Probati
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officers more <str
Page 89 and 90:
1. Does the effect of</stro
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all, resulting in a large number <s
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Differential treatment take-up and
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control group members who received
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effect of LIS on r
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incarcerated must also be removed f
Page 101 and 102:
offenders in our s
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ecidivists in the sample, 77 commit
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(IRR = 1.41, p ≤ .107). SES did n
Page 107 and 108:
probability of fai
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The count model ou
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estimate is also practically identi
Page 113 and 114:
twice the risk of
Page 115 and 116:
an end. On the other hand, research
Page 117 and 118:
low-intensity supervision would imp
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Conclusion The aim
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We found that low-risk of</
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7 LIS participants who were transfe
Page 125 and 126:
Tables Table 2.1: Sample Characteri
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Table 2.3: Frequency of</st
Page 129 and 130:
Table 2.5: Instrumental Variables M
Page 131 and 132:
Table 2.7: Prevalence of</s
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Table 2.9: Time to Failure (Violent
Page 135 and 136:
Table 2.12: Treatment Effect by Sub
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Table 2.14: Frequency of</s
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Table 2.16: Instrumental Variables
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Figures Figure 2.1: Risk-Based Allo
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Figure 2.5: Survival Time for LIS E
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CHAPTER 3. Risk Prediction for Effe
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sensitivity of the
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Programs should be designed to adhe
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weight information in an appropriat
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statistical model that would predic
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The Philadelphia m
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assignment pool. Backfill probation
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Little research has been done on th
Page 161 and 162:
already predicted to be at low risk
Page 163 and 164:
It assumes that if of</stro
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involved. Crimes that obviously met
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We examine the potential interactio
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age is based on this date regardles
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obberies. The only
Page 173 and 174:
of low-intensity s
Page 175 and 176:
classified as low risk. The
Page 177 and 178:
All the risk ratios in Table 3.9 in
Page 179 and 180:
0.55. Raising the threshold results
Page 181 and 182:
are partly selected on the basis <s
Page 183 and 184:
make up the majority of</st
Page 185 and 186:
strategy allows probation o
Page 187 and 188:
Notes 1 In this study, murder, atte
Page 189 and 190:
Table 3.2: Sample Characteristics (
Page 191 and 192:
Table 3.6: Predictive Ability at Al
Page 193 and 194:
Table 3.9: Post-Random Assignment O
Page 195 and 196:
APPENDICES Appendix A: Systematic R
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combination. The s
Page 199 and 200:
B. ELIGIBILITY CHECKLIST B1. First
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Other: txcxloth C6d. Additional pro
Page 203 and 204:
D. SAMPLE LEVEL CODING SHEET Instru
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E. DEPENDENT VARIABLE CODING SHEET
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F14. Comparison group sample size f
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weight w is then recalculated (6),
Page 211 and 212:
Study Sheffield (Males) 1976 (Folka
Page 213 and 214:
Study Dallas TX 1992 (Turner & Pete
Page 215 and 216:
Study Minnesota ISR 1995 (Deschenes
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Study Clark WA 2003 (Barnoski, 2003
Page 219 and 220:
Study Whatcom WA 2003 (Barnoski, 20
Page 221 and 222:
Study Los Angeles CA 2005 (Zhang &
Page 223 and 224:
Fed. Prob., 56, 12-17. Turner, Pete
Page 225 and 226:
Study Reference Benekos & Sonnenber
Page 227 and 228:
Study Reference Giblin (2002) Using
Page 229 and 230:
Study Reference Lasater et al. (n.d
Page 231 and 232:
Study Reference Robertson (2000) Co
Page 233 and 234:
Study Reference Turner & Greene (19
Page 235 and 236:
Appendix E: Philadelphia APPD Low-<
Page 237 and 238:
Prevalence of Reci
Page 239 and 240:
Frequency of Recid
Page 241 and 242:
Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
Page 243 and 244:
Instrumental Variables Model: Preva
Page 245 and 246:
Post-RA Months in Jail and Probabil
Page 247 and 248:
Scaled Schoenfeld Residuals Time =
Page 249 and 250:
BIBLIOGRAPHY Chapter 1 ** Denotes t
Page 251 and 252:
Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (197
Page 253 and 254:
Glaze, L. E, & Bonczar, T. P. (2009
Page 255 and 256:
MacKenzie, D. L. (2006a). What work
Page 257 and 258:
Petersilia, J., Turner, S., & Desch
Page 259 and 260:
safety first: 13 strategies for suc
Page 261 and 262:
Wilson, D. B. (2010). Meta-analysis
Page 263 and 264:
Angrist, J. D. (2006). Instrumental
Page 265 and 266:
Clear, T. R., & Hardyman, P. L. (19
Page 267 and 268:
period266.pdf Lowenkamp, C. T., Lat
Page 269 and 270:
Rosch, J. (2006). Deviant peer cont
Page 271 and 272:
Taxman, F. S., & Thanner, M. (2006)
Page 273 and 274:
statistical learning. Journal <stro
Page 275 and 276:
Federal Bureau of
Page 277 and 278:
Marsh, K., & Fox, C., (2008). <stro
Page 279:
Sherman, L. W. (1993). Defiance, de
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