The Effects of Sanction Intensity on Criminal Conduct - JDAI Helpdesk

Table 2.16: Instrumental Variables Model: Prevalence <strong>of</strong> Recidivism (Drug Offenses, 2-
Year Follow-Up)
First Stage
Treatment Take-Up
Reduced Form (ITT)
Post-RA Drug Off.
Observations = 1,559 Observations = 1,559
R 2 = .662 R 2 = .103
Adjusted R 2 = .658 Adjusted R 2 = .093
Instruments b (S.E.) b (S.E.)
Assigned LIS .803 (.088)*** -.035 (.085)
Assigned LIS*West -.077 (.035)* .009 (.034)
Assigned LIS*Male .011 (.032) .037 (.030)
Assigned LIS*White -.021 (.037) .015 (.036)
Assigned LIS*Age -.000 (.001) .000 (.001)
Assigned LIS*Income20 .024 (.057) .018 (.055)
Assigned LIS*Income30 .082 (.060) -.008 (.058)
Assigned LIS*Income40 .021 (.066) .013 (.064)
Assigned LIS*Prior <strong>of</strong>fending .193 (.092)* .022 (.089)
Exogenous
Months in jail post-RA -.013 (.002)*** .026 (.002)***
West probation region .056 (.025)* -.017 (.024)
Male .009 (.023) .028 (.022)
White .010 (.027) .004 (.026)
Age at RA .001 (.001) -.002 (.001)*
Income $20,000-$29,999 -.001 (.040) -.063 (.038)
Income $30,000-$39,999 -.013 (.042) -.060 (.040)
Income $40,000 or more -.002 (.047) -.104 (.045)*
Monthly <strong>of</strong>fending rate 1 year
pre-RA (drug <strong>of</strong>fense)
-.025 (.054) .023 (.052)
Constant -.028 (.063) .205 (.061)***
Second-Stage Instrumental Number <strong>of</strong> observations = 1,559
Variables Regression Wald χ 2 (10 d.f.) = 176.88
Pr > χ 2 = .000
New Charged Drug Offense R 2 = .102
Term b S. E z p
Predicted treatment take-up -.010 .018 -.60 .550
Months in jail post-RA .026 .002 11.67 .000
Constant .191 .043 4.50 .000
Controlling for region, gender, race, age, SES and <strong>of</strong>fending history.
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