PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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Percent 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Figure 7.1 Figure 7.2 70.0 Interest Expense vs Capital Expenditure as Shares of Government Revenue Correlation coefficient = - 0.78 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Fiscal Year Interest Capital 109
Appendix 7A A Methodological Note The starting point for analysis of economic policy, in the context of the economic conditions and issues discussed in this paper, is a conception of the economy as a dynamic system wherein growth and change are the result of human motivation and creativity and the process is driven by the profit-motivated production and investment activity of firms large and small in partnership with a proactive state. A proper economic analysis of this situation calls into play all the tools of modern dynamic economic analysis which deal with economic incentives, risk and uncertainty, finance, capital investment, technological innovation, education and training of the labour force, institutional adaptation to change, and the like. Using the tools of static economic analysis found in elementary economics textbooks is bound to lead to confusion and error in both analysis and prescription. Specifically, application of the old-fashioned notion of a Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) to the issues discussed here involves a fundamental error of economic analysis and is wholly devoid of meaning and relevance from the standpoint of formulating an economic-growth strategy for Jamaica today. The analytical error involved in such an approach would be readily recognized by the student of modern economics as arising from a basic confusion between economic statics and economic dynamics. For clarification, note that the PPF (see Figure 1) is constructed to deal with an imaginary world (of economic statics) in which resources are fixed, there is no possibility of change, and so the only room for action (in an economy assumed to be operating on the frontier) is to choose between different allocations (A or B) of the fixed resources to producing, say, guns (X1) and butter (X2) – the example that every student is taught in the first economics course. This construction says nothing about the distributional consequences of the choice, or by what conceivable mechanism, if any, the change in allocation could be effected, which in the real world of policy and action would be matters of immediate and serious concern. 110
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i A GROWTH-INDUCEMENT STRATEGY FOR
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To the many ordinary Jamaicans who
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Preface The Jamaican economy has ex
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for making a determined start on th
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the private sector groups, listed b
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Citibank N.A. Jamaica Branch Grace
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need for “additional fiscal space
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Chapter 2 ________________ Summary
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1.0 The Economic Situation Today 1.
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expected to provide an essential an
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Table 2.1. The Policy Framework: A
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programme of social inclusion that
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Strategic Focus Table 2.2. Growth S
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6.0 Short-Term Growth Stimulus 6.1
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decline of 2.0 - 2.2 percentage poi
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Table 2A.2. NWA Projects To be Fast
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Table 2A.5. Community Renewal Proje
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Table 2B.3. Impact of Repairing Far
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Appendix 2C Methodology of the Grow
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Part I _________ Overview 28
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2.0 Vision 2030 Jamaica Before delv
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3.0 May 2010 Security Event and Aft
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the longer than anticipated global
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April July October January April Ju
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Three industries recorded increases
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9.0 Proposals for Growth-Stimulus I
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targeted economic and social infras
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partnering with government to disco
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3.0 Growth Inducement Strategy The
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Growth-Inducement Strategy Alignmen
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50 Part II _________ Situational An
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inadequate provision of public infr
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2.0 Macroeconomic Assessment 2.1 In
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Increased global oil consumption wa
Page 69 and 70: $4,742.0 million and $688.4 million
Page 71 and 72: Non -Traditional Domestic Exports E
Page 73 and 74: negative impact of the Jamaica Debt
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Page 77 and 78: Analysis of preliminary GCT data re
Page 79 and 80: The number of ship calls to the isl
Page 81 and 82: industry was, however, estimated to
Page 83 and 84: 4.0 Projected Performance 4.1 Calen
Page 85 and 86: increased marketing and extension s
Page 87 and 88: Electricity & Water For FY 2010/11,
Page 89 and 90: J$ Million Figure 5.1. Private Sect
Page 91 and 92: 2011/12). These extreme weather eve
Page 93 and 94: Chapter 6 ________________ Assessme
Page 95 and 96: creates allocative inefficiencies,
Page 97 and 98: Million $ Per cent Jun-10 Mar-10 De
Page 99 and 100: Table 6.1. Employed Labour Force by
Page 101 and 102: J$ million Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun
Page 103 and 104: FIGURE 7: GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS RA
Page 105 and 106: 4.10.2. However, the extent of the
Page 107 and 108: Part III ____________ Analytical Fr
Page 109 and 110: functional relationship between the
Page 111 and 112: It follows that: (5) s = I/Y = [S -
Page 113 and 114: However, the existence of measureme
Page 115 and 116: (d) v* = Y*/K* This is a measure of
Page 117 and 118: in Chapter 8. The mutual interactio
Page 119: Transforming the complex set of str
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 ____________________ Asse
Page 125 and 126: The DBI focuses more narrowly on qu
Page 127 and 128: to ask, is it possible to predict g
Page 129 and 130: can be made to serve a very useful
Page 131 and 132: For further elaboration of the cons
Page 133 and 134: progressive Jamaica-based firms and
Page 135 and 136: Table 8.2. Jamaica: Doing Business,
Page 137 and 138: Table 8.4. Global Competitiveness I
Page 139 and 140: Table 8.5 (continued) Rank Indicato
Page 141 and 142: Rank* Constraint Table 8.7 Business
Page 143 and 144: Chapter 9 ___________________ Inter
Page 145 and 146: 3.0 The Burdens of LAC’s Logistic
Page 147 and 148: conditions. These combined with a p
Page 149 and 150: Figure 9.4. Proportion of Primary A
Page 151 and 152: 6.0 Logistics are Essential for Tou
Page 153 and 154: 7.0 Fundamental Steps Forward for J
Page 155 and 156: Part IV ________________ Policies a
Page 157 and 158: Current Status: Cabinet by decision
Page 159 and 160: e more than compensated for by the
Page 161 and 162: B ____________________ Eliminating
Page 163 and 164: Commercial Bank loan rates have als
Page 165 and 166: 5.0 Expected Outcomes These measure
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Table C.1. Proposed Implementation
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Locally, the Scientific Research Co
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Develop formal and informal links t
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D ____________________ Business Pro
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5.0 Recommendations Based on the ma
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2.5 Coexistent with the levels of u
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industry as well as provide funding
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Table E.2. Unemployed Labour Force
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indirect losses experienced when th
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Table F.1 (continued) Area Type of
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G ____________________ Community Re
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Figure G.1 Community Renewal Progra
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Table G.1 Priority Initiatives Obje
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Table G.2 Phased Implementation Pla
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H ____________________ Proposed Wes
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3.0 Transparency Guarantees By desi
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and Coordinating Unit (PCMU) was es
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therefore need to have sanctioned o
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Figure I.1. Functions of National P
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The rationalisation was guided by t
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deliver services in an efficient an
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efurbishing to allow for accommodat
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Part V _______________ Panelists’
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With the benefit of hindsight, some
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ight. Where we as a society fail is
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and exclusion of the majority of th
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the elders, youth, children. What f
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C __________________ Enhancing Nati
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Figure C.1. National resilience is
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PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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