PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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proposals had widespread agreement across stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Changes to the tax regime in these areas became effective in mid-May 2011. 2.6 The Community Renewal Programme (CRP) is a centrepiece of a holistic growth strategy. There has been substantial progress in the preparatory work for its implementation, notably: establishment and full operation of a CRP Secretariat housed at the PIOJ; selection of the 100 most volatile and vulnerable communities targeted for intervention over the ten-year life of the project; identification of a funding envelope for the life of the project; initial allocation of approximately $3.9 billion in FY 2011/12 for the execution of CRP projects. 2.7 In sum, we are encouraged by developments leading to the preparation and adoption of the growth strategy and the early signs relating to implementation. In particular: 1. The PIOJ has prepared, disseminated and received broad-based stakeholder buyin for a Growth-Inducement Strategy for the Short and Medium Term, which is fully aligned with Vision 2030 while addressing existing social and economic conditions. 2. The Growth-Inducement Strategy was prepared utilizing careful economic analysis and focused public scholarship through extensive and broad-based consultations within the public and private sectors, including key civil society groups and NGOs. 3. A highlight of the stakeholder engagement process was the hosting of a Public Symposium, which provided reactions indicating general support for the Growth- Inducement Strategy, even while highlighting areas of risk which require continuous monitoring and further analysis. 4. Important elements of the Growth-Inducement Strategy have been incorporated into the FY 2011/12 budget, notwithstanding continued fiscal constraints inherent in the need to maintain the credibility of the GOJ’s economic programme agreed under the IMF SBA. 3
Chapter 2 ________________ Summary Contents Guiding Principles……………………………………………………………....... 5 Strategic Framework……………………………………………………………… 5 The Economic Situation Today…………………………………………………... 6 Constraints and Opportunities……………………………………………………. 6 Understanding the Fundamental Constraints……………………………………... 8 Components of the Growth-Inducement Strategy………………………………... 11 From Strategy to Implementation………………………………………………… 12 Growth Strategy Matrix…………………………………………………………... 14 Highlighted Growth Projects……………………………………………………... 15 Short-Term Growth Stimulus…………………………………………………….. 16 Impact Analysis of Short-Term Growth Stimulus………………………………... 17 Appendix 2A. Details of Targeted Projects…………………………………….. 19 Appendix 2B. Impact Assessment of Short-Term Measures: Detailed Tables… 23 Appendix 2C. Methodology of the Growth-Impact Analysis………………….. 26 4
Page 1 and 2: i A GROWTH-INDUCEMENT STRATEGY FOR
Page 3 and 4: To the many ordinary Jamaicans who
Page 5 and 6: Preface The Jamaican economy has ex
Page 7 and 8: for making a determined start on th
Page 9 and 10: the private sector groups, listed b
Page 11 and 12: Citibank N.A. Jamaica Branch Grace
Page 13: need for “additional fiscal space
Page 17 and 18: 1.0 The Economic Situation Today 1.
Page 19 and 20: expected to provide an essential an
Page 21 and 22: Table 2.1. The Policy Framework: A
Page 23 and 24: programme of social inclusion that
Page 25 and 26: Strategic Focus Table 2.2. Growth S
Page 27 and 28: 6.0 Short-Term Growth Stimulus 6.1
Page 29 and 30: decline of 2.0 - 2.2 percentage poi
Page 31 and 32: Table 2A.2. NWA Projects To be Fast
Page 33 and 34: Table 2A.5. Community Renewal Proje
Page 35 and 36: Table 2B.3. Impact of Repairing Far
Page 37 and 38: Appendix 2C Methodology of the Grow
Page 39 and 40: Part I _________ Overview 28
Page 41 and 42: 2.0 Vision 2030 Jamaica Before delv
Page 43 and 44: 3.0 May 2010 Security Event and Aft
Page 45 and 46: the longer than anticipated global
Page 47 and 48: April July October January April Ju
Page 49 and 50: Three industries recorded increases
Page 51 and 52: 9.0 Proposals for Growth-Stimulus I
Page 53 and 54: targeted economic and social infras
Page 55 and 56: partnering with government to disco
Page 57 and 58: 3.0 Growth Inducement Strategy The
Page 59 and 60: Growth-Inducement Strategy Alignmen
Page 61 and 62: 50 Part II _________ Situational An
Page 63 and 64: inadequate provision of public infr
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2.0 Macroeconomic Assessment 2.1 In
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Increased global oil consumption wa
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$4,742.0 million and $688.4 million
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Non -Traditional Domestic Exports E
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negative impact of the Jamaica Debt
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ethanol and paint, whereas lower de
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Analysis of preliminary GCT data re
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The number of ship calls to the isl
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industry was, however, estimated to
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4.0 Projected Performance 4.1 Calen
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increased marketing and extension s
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Electricity & Water For FY 2010/11,
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J$ Million Figure 5.1. Private Sect
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2011/12). These extreme weather eve
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Chapter 6 ________________ Assessme
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creates allocative inefficiencies,
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Million $ Per cent Jun-10 Mar-10 De
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Table 6.1. Employed Labour Force by
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J$ million Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun
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FIGURE 7: GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS RA
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4.10.2. However, the extent of the
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Part III ____________ Analytical Fr
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functional relationship between the
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It follows that: (5) s = I/Y = [S -
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However, the existence of measureme
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(d) v* = Y*/K* This is a measure of
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in Chapter 8. The mutual interactio
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Transforming the complex set of str
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Appendix 7A A Methodological Note T
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Chapter 8 ____________________ Asse
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The DBI focuses more narrowly on qu
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to ask, is it possible to predict g
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can be made to serve a very useful
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For further elaboration of the cons
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progressive Jamaica-based firms and
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Table 8.2. Jamaica: Doing Business,
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Table 8.4. Global Competitiveness I
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Table 8.5 (continued) Rank Indicato
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Rank* Constraint Table 8.7 Business
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Chapter 9 ___________________ Inter
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3.0 The Burdens of LAC’s Logistic
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conditions. These combined with a p
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Figure 9.4. Proportion of Primary A
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6.0 Logistics are Essential for Tou
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7.0 Fundamental Steps Forward for J
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Part IV ________________ Policies a
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Current Status: Cabinet by decision
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e more than compensated for by the
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B ____________________ Eliminating
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Commercial Bank loan rates have als
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5.0 Expected Outcomes These measure
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capital, mainly in the form of equi
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oth local and overseas (including t
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Table C.1. Proposed Implementation
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Locally, the Scientific Research Co
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Develop formal and informal links t
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D ____________________ Business Pro
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5.0 Recommendations Based on the ma
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2.5 Coexistent with the levels of u
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industry as well as provide funding
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Table E.2. Unemployed Labour Force
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indirect losses experienced when th
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Table F.1 (continued) Area Type of
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G ____________________ Community Re
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Figure G.1 Community Renewal Progra
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Table G.1 Priority Initiatives Obje
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Table G.2 Phased Implementation Pla
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H ____________________ Proposed Wes
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3.0 Transparency Guarantees By desi
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and Coordinating Unit (PCMU) was es
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therefore need to have sanctioned o
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Figure I.1. Functions of National P
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The rationalisation was guided by t
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deliver services in an efficient an
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efurbishing to allow for accommodat
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Part V _______________ Panelists’
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With the benefit of hindsight, some
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ight. Where we as a society fail is
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and exclusion of the majority of th
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the elders, youth, children. What f
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C __________________ Enhancing Nati
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Figure C.1. National resilience is
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