PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

More documents

Recommendations

Info

• provide a stimulus to aggregate demand, in the short-term • enhance the resilience of the economy to shocks • reduce or remove, over the medium term, critical structural constraints to longterm growth • improve the social inclusiveness of economic policies, which would include arresting and reversing the upward trend in poverty and addressing urban-rural imbalances. Of special note regarding the fragility of our growth projections, data on the impact of recent natural disasters highlights that, during the last decade, Jamaica has suffered from several natural disasters, with Hurricane Ivan being the most significant. Combined, these disasters have cost the country approximately $114 billion or approximately 2.1 per cent of GDP annually (compare this to the optimistic baseline forecast of 2.1% real GDP growth for FY 2011/12). These extreme weather events have also contributed significantly to either undesirable budget imbalances or unplanned (and oftentimes, unproductive) cuts in expenditures to finance post-disaster rehabilitation. In light of these policy imperatives, the PIOJ is proposing adoption of a Growth- Inducement Strategy focused on a mix of short and medium–term measures featuring: • targeted infrastructure spending, which is intended to improve the resilience of the built environment, contribute to increased agricultural production especially through rebuilding and maintaining farm roads, generate an immediate injection of aggregate demand and income, and improve social inclusion in volatile and vulnerable communities • a targeted and broad-based Community Renewal Programme, aimed at ameliorating crime and improving social cohesion in targeted communities • a package of medium-term policy reforms, including tax reform, which address the removal of structural constraints and improve cost-competitiveness of the economy • strengthening value chain linkages between tourism, agriculture, agro-processing, and local services. Early adoption and implementation of this Strategy is projected to provide significant immediate benefits beginning in 2011 in terms of the following key objectives: a. Job creation b. GDP growth c. Poverty reduction 53
2.0 Macroeconomic Assessment 2.1 International Economy The international economy continued its recovery from the financial and economic crisis of 2008/09, as evidenced by an expansion in production and trade. For 2010, the global economy grew by an estimated 4.3 per cent. Increased global economic activity was driven largely by Emerging Markets & Developing Countries which grew by 7.1 per cent. Within this category, Developing Asia registered growth of 9.4 per cent (China 10.5 per cent and India 9.7 per cent). Developed Countries grew by an estimated 2.7 per cent. Despite improvements, further recovery was dampened by risks associated with high unemployment, subdued consumer demand in developed countries, and the European debt crisis. The threat of contagion to the Euro area from the Greek and Irish debt crisis compelled the IMF and other European countries to establish bailout packages to the highly indebted countries along with the implementation of stringent fiscal measures. Table 5.1. World Economic Growth Performance and Outlook: 2008 – 2010 (per cent per annum) 2008 2009 2010p World Output 5.2 -0.6 4.3 Advanced Economies 2.7 -3.2 2.4 USA 2.0 -2.6 2.2 Euro Area 2.6 1.0 1.9 Japan 2.4 -0.3 1.9 UK 3.0 0.7 2.8 Canada 2.7 0.6 3.1 Emerging & Developing Economies 8.3 6.3 7.0 Central & Eastern Europe 6.2 5.2 2.9 Commonwealth of Independent States 8.6 6.0 3.3 Developing Asia 10.6 7.8 9.1 China 13.0 9.0 9.9 India 9.3 7.3 10.3 Latin America & the Caribbean 5.7 4.6 5.0 p = projected Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2010 Movements in International Commodity Prices - 2010 Rebounding from a major slump in 2008, commodity prices significantly recovered. Improved economic out-turns resulted in higher prices due to increased demand for fuels, crops and metals, particularly from emerging economies in Asia. 54
Page 1 and 2:
i A GROWTH-INDUCEMENT STRATEGY FOR
Page 3 and 4:
To the many ordinary Jamaicans who
Page 5 and 6:
Preface The Jamaican economy has ex
Page 7 and 8:
for making a determined start on th
Page 9 and 10:
the private sector groups, listed b
Page 11 and 12:
Citibank N.A. Jamaica Branch Grace
Page 13 and 14: need for “additional fiscal space
Page 15 and 16: Chapter 2 ________________ Summary
Page 17 and 18: 1.0 The Economic Situation Today 1.
Page 19 and 20: expected to provide an essential an
Page 21 and 22: Table 2.1. The Policy Framework: A
Page 23 and 24: programme of social inclusion that
Page 25 and 26: Strategic Focus Table 2.2. Growth S
Page 27 and 28: 6.0 Short-Term Growth Stimulus 6.1
Page 29 and 30: decline of 2.0 - 2.2 percentage poi
Page 31 and 32: Table 2A.2. NWA Projects To be Fast
Page 33 and 34: Table 2A.5. Community Renewal Proje
Page 35 and 36: Table 2B.3. Impact of Repairing Far
Page 37 and 38: Appendix 2C Methodology of the Grow
Page 39 and 40: Part I _________ Overview 28
Page 41 and 42: 2.0 Vision 2030 Jamaica Before delv
Page 43 and 44: 3.0 May 2010 Security Event and Aft
Page 45 and 46: the longer than anticipated global
Page 47 and 48: April July October January April Ju
Page 49 and 50: Three industries recorded increases
Page 51 and 52: 9.0 Proposals for Growth-Stimulus I
Page 53 and 54: targeted economic and social infras
Page 55 and 56: partnering with government to disco
Page 57 and 58: 3.0 Growth Inducement Strategy The
Page 59 and 60: Growth-Inducement Strategy Alignmen
Page 61 and 62: 50 Part II _________ Situational An
Page 63: inadequate provision of public infr
Page 67 and 68: Increased global oil consumption wa
Page 69 and 70: $4,742.0 million and $688.4 million
Page 71 and 72: Non -Traditional Domestic Exports E
Page 73 and 74: negative impact of the Jamaica Debt
Page 75 and 76: ethanol and paint, whereas lower de
Page 77 and 78: Analysis of preliminary GCT data re
Page 79 and 80: The number of ship calls to the isl
Page 81 and 82: industry was, however, estimated to
Page 83 and 84: 4.0 Projected Performance 4.1 Calen
Page 85 and 86: increased marketing and extension s
Page 87 and 88: Electricity & Water For FY 2010/11,
Page 89 and 90: J$ Million Figure 5.1. Private Sect
Page 91 and 92: 2011/12). These extreme weather eve
Page 93 and 94: Chapter 6 ________________ Assessme
Page 95 and 96: creates allocative inefficiencies,
Page 97 and 98: Million $ Per cent Jun-10 Mar-10 De
Page 99 and 100: Table 6.1. Employed Labour Force by
Page 101 and 102: J$ million Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun
Page 103 and 104: FIGURE 7: GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS RA
Page 105 and 106: 4.10.2. However, the extent of the
Page 107 and 108: Part III ____________ Analytical Fr
Page 109 and 110: functional relationship between the
Page 111 and 112: It follows that: (5) s = I/Y = [S -
Page 113 and 114: However, the existence of measureme
Page 115 and 116:
(d) v* = Y*/K* This is a measure of
Page 117 and 118:
in Chapter 8. The mutual interactio
Page 119 and 120:
Transforming the complex set of str
Page 121 and 122:
Appendix 7A A Methodological Note T
Page 123 and 124:
Chapter 8 ____________________ Asse
Page 125 and 126:
The DBI focuses more narrowly on qu
Page 127 and 128:
to ask, is it possible to predict g
Page 129 and 130:
can be made to serve a very useful
Page 131 and 132:
For further elaboration of the cons
Page 133 and 134:
progressive Jamaica-based firms and
Page 135 and 136:
Table 8.2. Jamaica: Doing Business,
Page 137 and 138:
Table 8.4. Global Competitiveness I
Page 139 and 140:
Table 8.5 (continued) Rank Indicato
Page 141 and 142:
Rank* Constraint Table 8.7 Business
Page 143 and 144:
Chapter 9 ___________________ Inter
Page 145 and 146:
3.0 The Burdens of LAC’s Logistic
Page 147 and 148:
conditions. These combined with a p
Page 149 and 150:
Figure 9.4. Proportion of Primary A
Page 151 and 152:
6.0 Logistics are Essential for Tou
Page 153 and 154:
7.0 Fundamental Steps Forward for J
Page 155 and 156:
Part IV ________________ Policies a
Page 157 and 158:
Current Status: Cabinet by decision
Page 159 and 160:
e more than compensated for by the
Page 161 and 162:
B ____________________ Eliminating
Page 163 and 164:
Commercial Bank loan rates have als
Page 165 and 166:
5.0 Expected Outcomes These measure
Page 167 and 168:
capital, mainly in the form of equi
Page 169 and 170:
oth local and overseas (including t
Page 171 and 172:
Table C.1. Proposed Implementation
Page 173 and 174:
Locally, the Scientific Research Co
Page 175 and 176:
Develop formal and informal links t
Page 177 and 178:
D ____________________ Business Pro
Page 179 and 180:
5.0 Recommendations Based on the ma
Page 181 and 182:
2.5 Coexistent with the levels of u
Page 183 and 184:
industry as well as provide funding
Page 185 and 186:
Table E.2. Unemployed Labour Force
Page 187 and 188:
indirect losses experienced when th
Page 189 and 190:
Table F.1 (continued) Area Type of
Page 191 and 192:
G ____________________ Community Re
Page 193 and 194:
Figure G.1 Community Renewal Progra
Page 195 and 196:
Table G.1 Priority Initiatives Obje
Page 197 and 198:
Table G.2 Phased Implementation Pla
Page 199 and 200:
H ____________________ Proposed Wes
Page 201 and 202:
3.0 Transparency Guarantees By desi
Page 203 and 204:
and Coordinating Unit (PCMU) was es
Page 205 and 206:
therefore need to have sanctioned o
Page 207 and 208:
Figure I.1. Functions of National P
Page 209 and 210:
The rationalisation was guided by t
Page 211 and 212:
deliver services in an efficient an
Page 213 and 214:
efurbishing to allow for accommodat
Page 215 and 216:
Part V _______________ Panelists’
Page 217 and 218:
With the benefit of hindsight, some
Page 219 and 220:
ight. Where we as a society fail is
Page 221 and 222:
and exclusion of the majority of th
Page 223 and 224:
the elders, youth, children. What f
Page 225 and 226:
C __________________ Enhancing Nati
Page 227 and 228:
Figure C.1. National resilience is
show all

PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?