PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

More documents

Recommendations

Info

een sourced but not utilized due to a lack of fiscal space. These resources include a mix of grant funding and low-cost concessionary loans. Reduced Poverty: relative to a baseline projection of poverty rates in the range of 16.5% -18.1% for 2011, the PIOJ’s proposed programme of short-term measures could reduce the poverty rate by 2.0 - 2.2 percentage points to within a range of 14.8% – 16.4%. 81
Chapter 6 ________________ Assessment of and Recommendations for the Current Fiscal/Financial Programme 29 Summary While the Country’s over-performance in meeting the financial targets under the February 2010 IMF Fiscal Consolidation SBA deserves the high praise it has been getting, PIOJ analysis compels bringing immediate attention to the corresponding significant negative out-turns in the real and social sectors, and in influential leading economic indicators. Below and attached are data and analysis in support of the PIOJ’s assessment which concludes the following: 1. The current recession, where Jamaica is producing below its potential, is being worsened by the pro-cyclical nature of the IMF programme. 2. Without immediate adjustment, the economic programme will achieve neither financial or fiscal stability and sustainability, nor sustainable job-creating economic growth, in the medium-term. 3. Near-term political economy will pose a critical challenge to the sustainability, and hence credibility of the current economic programme and policy stance. Specifically there has been: rising levels of unemployment and poverty rise in real interest rate and fall in demand for loans rise in bad debts fall in consumer confidence in line with a decline in purchasing power and fears of future job losses. 29 In consultation with the Economic Planning and Research Division, PIOJ. Data and analysis in this chapter first presented on September 16, 2010. 82
Page 1 and 2:
i A GROWTH-INDUCEMENT STRATEGY FOR
Page 3 and 4:
To the many ordinary Jamaicans who
Page 5 and 6:
Preface The Jamaican economy has ex
Page 7 and 8:
for making a determined start on th
Page 9 and 10:
the private sector groups, listed b
Page 11 and 12:
Citibank N.A. Jamaica Branch Grace
Page 13 and 14:
need for “additional fiscal space
Page 15 and 16:
Chapter 2 ________________ Summary
Page 17 and 18:
1.0 The Economic Situation Today 1.
Page 19 and 20:
expected to provide an essential an
Page 21 and 22:
Table 2.1. The Policy Framework: A
Page 23 and 24:
programme of social inclusion that
Page 25 and 26:
Strategic Focus Table 2.2. Growth S
Page 27 and 28:
6.0 Short-Term Growth Stimulus 6.1
Page 29 and 30:
decline of 2.0 - 2.2 percentage poi
Page 31 and 32:
Table 2A.2. NWA Projects To be Fast
Page 33 and 34:
Table 2A.5. Community Renewal Proje
Page 35 and 36:
Table 2B.3. Impact of Repairing Far
Page 37 and 38:
Appendix 2C Methodology of the Grow
Page 39 and 40:
Part I _________ Overview 28
Page 41 and 42: 2.0 Vision 2030 Jamaica Before delv
Page 43 and 44: 3.0 May 2010 Security Event and Aft
Page 45 and 46: the longer than anticipated global
Page 47 and 48: April July October January April Ju
Page 49 and 50: Three industries recorded increases
Page 51 and 52: 9.0 Proposals for Growth-Stimulus I
Page 53 and 54: targeted economic and social infras
Page 55 and 56: partnering with government to disco
Page 57 and 58: 3.0 Growth Inducement Strategy The
Page 59 and 60: Growth-Inducement Strategy Alignmen
Page 61 and 62: 50 Part II _________ Situational An
Page 63 and 64: inadequate provision of public infr
Page 65 and 66: 2.0 Macroeconomic Assessment 2.1 In
Page 67 and 68: Increased global oil consumption wa
Page 69 and 70: $4,742.0 million and $688.4 million
Page 71 and 72: Non -Traditional Domestic Exports E
Page 73 and 74: negative impact of the Jamaica Debt
Page 75 and 76: ethanol and paint, whereas lower de
Page 77 and 78: Analysis of preliminary GCT data re
Page 79 and 80: The number of ship calls to the isl
Page 81 and 82: industry was, however, estimated to
Page 83 and 84: 4.0 Projected Performance 4.1 Calen
Page 85 and 86: increased marketing and extension s
Page 87 and 88: Electricity & Water For FY 2010/11,
Page 89 and 90: J$ Million Figure 5.1. Private Sect
Page 91: 2011/12). These extreme weather eve
Page 95 and 96: creates allocative inefficiencies,
Page 97 and 98: Million $ Per cent Jun-10 Mar-10 De
Page 99 and 100: Table 6.1. Employed Labour Force by
Page 101 and 102: J$ million Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun
Page 103 and 104: FIGURE 7: GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS RA
Page 105 and 106: 4.10.2. However, the extent of the
Page 107 and 108: Part III ____________ Analytical Fr
Page 109 and 110: functional relationship between the
Page 111 and 112: It follows that: (5) s = I/Y = [S -
Page 113 and 114: However, the existence of measureme
Page 115 and 116: (d) v* = Y*/K* This is a measure of
Page 117 and 118: in Chapter 8. The mutual interactio
Page 119 and 120: Transforming the complex set of str
Page 121 and 122: Appendix 7A A Methodological Note T
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 ____________________ Asse
Page 125 and 126: The DBI focuses more narrowly on qu
Page 127 and 128: to ask, is it possible to predict g
Page 129 and 130: can be made to serve a very useful
Page 131 and 132: For further elaboration of the cons
Page 133 and 134: progressive Jamaica-based firms and
Page 135 and 136: Table 8.2. Jamaica: Doing Business,
Page 137 and 138: Table 8.4. Global Competitiveness I
Page 139 and 140: Table 8.5 (continued) Rank Indicato
Page 141 and 142: Rank* Constraint Table 8.7 Business
Page 143 and 144:
Chapter 9 ___________________ Inter
Page 145 and 146:
3.0 The Burdens of LAC’s Logistic
Page 147 and 148:
conditions. These combined with a p
Page 149 and 150:
Figure 9.4. Proportion of Primary A
Page 151 and 152:
6.0 Logistics are Essential for Tou
Page 153 and 154:
7.0 Fundamental Steps Forward for J
Page 155 and 156:
Part IV ________________ Policies a
Page 157 and 158:
Current Status: Cabinet by decision
Page 159 and 160:
e more than compensated for by the
Page 161 and 162:
B ____________________ Eliminating
Page 163 and 164:
Commercial Bank loan rates have als
Page 165 and 166:
5.0 Expected Outcomes These measure
Page 167 and 168:
capital, mainly in the form of equi
Page 169 and 170:
oth local and overseas (including t
Page 171 and 172:
Table C.1. Proposed Implementation
Page 173 and 174:
Locally, the Scientific Research Co
Page 175 and 176:
Develop formal and informal links t
Page 177 and 178:
D ____________________ Business Pro
Page 179 and 180:
5.0 Recommendations Based on the ma
Page 181 and 182:
2.5 Coexistent with the levels of u
Page 183 and 184:
industry as well as provide funding
Page 185 and 186:
Table E.2. Unemployed Labour Force
Page 187 and 188:
indirect losses experienced when th
Page 189 and 190:
Table F.1 (continued) Area Type of
Page 191 and 192:
G ____________________ Community Re
Page 193 and 194:
Figure G.1 Community Renewal Progra
Page 195 and 196:
Table G.1 Priority Initiatives Obje
Page 197 and 198:
Table G.2 Phased Implementation Pla
Page 199 and 200:
H ____________________ Proposed Wes
Page 201 and 202:
3.0 Transparency Guarantees By desi
Page 203 and 204:
and Coordinating Unit (PCMU) was es
Page 205 and 206:
therefore need to have sanctioned o
Page 207 and 208:
Figure I.1. Functions of National P
Page 209 and 210:
The rationalisation was guided by t
Page 211 and 212:
deliver services in an efficient an
Page 213 and 214:
efurbishing to allow for accommodat
Page 215 and 216:
Part V _______________ Panelists’
Page 217 and 218:
With the benefit of hindsight, some
Page 219 and 220:
ight. Where we as a society fail is
Page 221 and 222:
and exclusion of the majority of th
Page 223 and 224:
the elders, youth, children. What f
Page 225 and 226:
C __________________ Enhancing Nati
Page 227 and 228:
Figure C.1. National resilience is
show all

PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?