PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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nine months and projections for the fourth quarter, the industry is projected to grow by 0.9 per cent. Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair and Installation of Machinery For 2010, real value added for the industry is forecast to decline by 1.8 per cent compared with calendar year 2009. The last quarter is projected to decline by 1.2 per cent for a four quarter decline over the period. The current economic downturn has impacted the industry evidenced by reduced sales and lower consumer spending. Mining For October – December 2010, real value added for the Mining & Quarrying industry increased by 20.2 per cent reflecting growth in alumina production. Alumina production grew by 30.2 per cent due mainly to the re-opening of Windalco’s Ewarton plant, which was closed in the corresponding period of 2009. The expected improved performance in the fourth quarter in addition to the first nine months of the calendar year will result in the industry declining by 3.5 per cent for calendar year 2010. Electricity & Water Supply Real value added for the industry for 2010 is expected to decline by 4.3 per cent relative to 2009. This was fuelled mainly by contraction recorded in gross electricity generation as water production based on the projections has increased. The amount of electricity made available to the grid in 2010 fell by 1.8 per cent to 4 137.4 million kWh. This performance reflected declines of 2.6 per cent and 0.3 per cent in generation from the JPSCo and non-JPSCo sources, respectively. Water production is also expected to decline due to the drought conditions in the first half of 2010. Transport Storage & Communication This industry is expected to contract by 2.3 per cent for 2010, reflecting downturns in both the Transport & Storage and Communications segments. Reduced activities in the Transport & Storage segment was primarily influenced by a curtailment of operations at Air Jamaica and lower cargo movement at Kingston wharves. Hotels & Restaurants For 2010, real value added for the Hotels and Restaurants industry is estimated to increase by 3.1 per cent relative to the corresponding period of 2009. This growth is expected from increased stopover arrivals from the major source markets. Finance & Insurance Services It is anticipated that the Finance & Insurance Services industry will decline by 4.0 per cent for 2010. This decline is reflective of the impact of the general downturn in the economy and the effect of the Jamaica Debt Exchange programme on net interest income at financial institutions. 71
4.0 Projected Performance 4.1 Calendar Year, 2011 Global Economy The global economy is projected to grow by approximately 4.4 per cent in 2011. Associated with this, credit markets, investment, output and trade are expected to improve. Despite the monetary efforts to cool down the Chinese economy, growth will be led by Emerging and Developing Countries, which combined, are projected to grow by 6.4 per cent, almost three times the 2.2 per cent projected for the Developed world. Against this background commodity prices are expected to continue to increase for 2011, albeit at a slower pace than occurred during 2010. Demand will continue to be strong from emerging market economies and expand in recovering developed countries. Disruptions to supply and declining inventory levels are expected to contribute to the upward trend in prices. Domestic Economy An expansion in real GDP of 1.9 per cent is projected for the Jamaican economy during 2011. This out-turn would represent the first calendar year increase since 2007 when the economy grew by 1.4 per cent. This improved performance is predicated on developments in both the international and domestic economy. The country is expected to benefit from continued recovery in the global economy, specifically with Jamaica’s main trading partners showing signs of improvement. World Output is projected to grow by 4.4 per cent during 2011 with the USA, Jamaica’s main trading partner, expected to expand by 2.7 per cent 27 . This should augur well for exports, primarily tourism, bauxite/alumina as well as for increased remittance inflows. Domestically, aggregate demand is expected to show signs of improvement during 2011, as business confidence which had started to rise primarily during the latter part of 2010, is expected to continue increasing during 2011. This is expected to translate into increased demand for goods and services. 27 “World Economic Outlook”, IMF October 2010 72
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i A GROWTH-INDUCEMENT STRATEGY FOR
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To the many ordinary Jamaicans who
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Preface The Jamaican economy has ex
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for making a determined start on th
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the private sector groups, listed b
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Citibank N.A. Jamaica Branch Grace
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need for “additional fiscal space
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Chapter 2 ________________ Summary
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1.0 The Economic Situation Today 1.
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expected to provide an essential an
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Table 2.1. The Policy Framework: A
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programme of social inclusion that
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Strategic Focus Table 2.2. Growth S
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6.0 Short-Term Growth Stimulus 6.1
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decline of 2.0 - 2.2 percentage poi
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Page 33 and 34: Table 2A.5. Community Renewal Proje
Page 35 and 36: Table 2B.3. Impact of Repairing Far
Page 37 and 38: Appendix 2C Methodology of the Grow
Page 39 and 40: Part I _________ Overview 28
Page 41 and 42: 2.0 Vision 2030 Jamaica Before delv
Page 43 and 44: 3.0 May 2010 Security Event and Aft
Page 45 and 46: the longer than anticipated global
Page 47 and 48: April July October January April Ju
Page 49 and 50: Three industries recorded increases
Page 51 and 52: 9.0 Proposals for Growth-Stimulus I
Page 53 and 54: targeted economic and social infras
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Page 57 and 58: 3.0 Growth Inducement Strategy The
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Page 63 and 64: inadequate provision of public infr
Page 65 and 66: 2.0 Macroeconomic Assessment 2.1 In
Page 67 and 68: Increased global oil consumption wa
Page 69 and 70: $4,742.0 million and $688.4 million
Page 71 and 72: Non -Traditional Domestic Exports E
Page 73 and 74: negative impact of the Jamaica Debt
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Page 77 and 78: Analysis of preliminary GCT data re
Page 79 and 80: The number of ship calls to the isl
Page 81: industry was, however, estimated to
Page 85 and 86: increased marketing and extension s
Page 87 and 88: Electricity & Water For FY 2010/11,
Page 89 and 90: J$ Million Figure 5.1. Private Sect
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Page 95 and 96: creates allocative inefficiencies,
Page 97 and 98: Million $ Per cent Jun-10 Mar-10 De
Page 99 and 100: Table 6.1. Employed Labour Force by
Page 101 and 102: J$ million Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun
Page 103 and 104: FIGURE 7: GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS RA
Page 105 and 106: 4.10.2. However, the extent of the
Page 107 and 108: Part III ____________ Analytical Fr
Page 109 and 110: functional relationship between the
Page 111 and 112: It follows that: (5) s = I/Y = [S -
Page 113 and 114: However, the existence of measureme
Page 115 and 116: (d) v* = Y*/K* This is a measure of
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Page 119 and 120: Transforming the complex set of str
Page 121 and 122: Appendix 7A A Methodological Note T
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 ____________________ Asse
Page 125 and 126: The DBI focuses more narrowly on qu
Page 127 and 128: to ask, is it possible to predict g
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Page 131 and 132: For further elaboration of the cons
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progressive Jamaica-based firms and
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Table 8.2. Jamaica: Doing Business,
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Table 8.4. Global Competitiveness I
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Table 8.5 (continued) Rank Indicato
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Rank* Constraint Table 8.7 Business
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Chapter 9 ___________________ Inter
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3.0 The Burdens of LAC’s Logistic
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conditions. These combined with a p
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Figure 9.4. Proportion of Primary A
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6.0 Logistics are Essential for Tou
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7.0 Fundamental Steps Forward for J
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Part IV ________________ Policies a
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Current Status: Cabinet by decision
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e more than compensated for by the
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B ____________________ Eliminating
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Commercial Bank loan rates have als
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5.0 Expected Outcomes These measure
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capital, mainly in the form of equi
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oth local and overseas (including t
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Table C.1. Proposed Implementation
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Locally, the Scientific Research Co
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Develop formal and informal links t
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D ____________________ Business Pro
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5.0 Recommendations Based on the ma
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2.5 Coexistent with the levels of u
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industry as well as provide funding
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Table E.2. Unemployed Labour Force
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indirect losses experienced when th
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Table F.1 (continued) Area Type of
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G ____________________ Community Re
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Figure G.1 Community Renewal Progra
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Table G.1 Priority Initiatives Obje
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Table G.2 Phased Implementation Pla
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H ____________________ Proposed Wes
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3.0 Transparency Guarantees By desi
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and Coordinating Unit (PCMU) was es
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therefore need to have sanctioned o
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Figure I.1. Functions of National P
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The rationalisation was guided by t
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deliver services in an efficient an
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efurbishing to allow for accommodat
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Part V _______________ Panelists’
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With the benefit of hindsight, some
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ight. Where we as a society fail is
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and exclusion of the majority of th
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the elders, youth, children. What f
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C __________________ Enhancing Nati
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Figure C.1. National resilience is
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