PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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Chapter 3 ________________ From the IMF Programme to Private-Sector-Led Growth within Vision 2030 Jamaica 7 Dr. Gladstone Hutchinson Director General, PIOJ “The private sector is where much of our focus is going to have to be to meet the overarching challenge of … human development. Growth, jobs and opportunity belong there [and] not in the gift of government”. Mark Malloch Brown, Administrator, UNDP 1.0 Introduction To grow a developing economy through a reduction in Government’s fiscal intervention is tricky business. Add to it the layers of complication brought on by a deep world recession and the internal misalignment of economic resources and history of sub-optimal public policy in Jamaica, and we are left with the narrowest and messiest of paths to success. Yet it is abundantly clear that this transformation is doable. My argument is that this success rests squarely on whether you the private sector can discover resilience, robustness and elasticity in entrepreneurship and business development. The fact is that state-dominated and directed management of economic resources as a paradigm for progress in economic and social well-being is largely discredited. It is and was always a bad idea. Globalization and technological progress and their demands that modern economies be agile, responsive and knowledge-based, are furthering the demise of this idea. I need not do any telling to this group about the most basic of necessary conditions underlying our new economic paradigm and reform effort. If markets, and you the private sector, are not fully convinced that our country is irreversibly committed to this new private sector led economic paradigm, then the transformation will be a failure. In my presentation, I will discuss the evidence on this very point, and its implications. 7 Copy edited and re-formatted text of Presentation to The Chairman’s Club Forum - Private Sector Organization of Jamaica, September 28, 2010. 29
2.0 Vision 2030 Jamaica Before delving into economic analytics, I would like to briefly engage us in why we should. As you recall, beginning in mid-2000 under the PNP administration and subsequently embraced, supported, and launched in 2007 under the current JLP administration, Vision 2030 Jamaica – National Development Plan is a product of comprehensive national discussions with stakeholders across political, religious, business, government, non-government and civil society divide. It conciliates our aspirations as a nation around four realistic national goals that integrate economic, social, cultural and environmental dimensions. These are: 1. To empower Jamaicans to achieve their fullest potential 2. To make the Jamaican society secure, cohesive and just 3. To make the Jamaican economy prosperous 4. To make the Jamaican natural environment healthy. Figure 3.1 National Goals 30
Page 1 and 2: i A GROWTH-INDUCEMENT STRATEGY FOR
Page 3 and 4: To the many ordinary Jamaicans who
Page 5 and 6: Preface The Jamaican economy has ex
Page 7 and 8: for making a determined start on th
Page 9 and 10: the private sector groups, listed b
Page 11 and 12: Citibank N.A. Jamaica Branch Grace
Page 13 and 14: need for “additional fiscal space
Page 15 and 16: Chapter 2 ________________ Summary
Page 17 and 18: 1.0 The Economic Situation Today 1.
Page 19 and 20: expected to provide an essential an
Page 21 and 22: Table 2.1. The Policy Framework: A
Page 23 and 24: programme of social inclusion that
Page 25 and 26: Strategic Focus Table 2.2. Growth S
Page 27 and 28: 6.0 Short-Term Growth Stimulus 6.1
Page 29 and 30: decline of 2.0 - 2.2 percentage poi
Page 31 and 32: Table 2A.2. NWA Projects To be Fast
Page 33 and 34: Table 2A.5. Community Renewal Proje
Page 35 and 36: Table 2B.3. Impact of Repairing Far
Page 37 and 38: Appendix 2C Methodology of the Grow
Page 39: Part I _________ Overview 28
Page 43 and 44: 3.0 May 2010 Security Event and Aft
Page 45 and 46: the longer than anticipated global
Page 47 and 48: April July October January April Ju
Page 49 and 50: Three industries recorded increases
Page 51 and 52: 9.0 Proposals for Growth-Stimulus I
Page 53 and 54: targeted economic and social infras
Page 55 and 56: partnering with government to disco
Page 57 and 58: 3.0 Growth Inducement Strategy The
Page 59 and 60: Growth-Inducement Strategy Alignmen
Page 61 and 62: 50 Part II _________ Situational An
Page 63 and 64: inadequate provision of public infr
Page 65 and 66: 2.0 Macroeconomic Assessment 2.1 In
Page 67 and 68: Increased global oil consumption wa
Page 69 and 70: $4,742.0 million and $688.4 million
Page 71 and 72: Non -Traditional Domestic Exports E
Page 73 and 74: negative impact of the Jamaica Debt
Page 75 and 76: ethanol and paint, whereas lower de
Page 77 and 78: Analysis of preliminary GCT data re
Page 79 and 80: The number of ship calls to the isl
Page 81 and 82: industry was, however, estimated to
Page 83 and 84: 4.0 Projected Performance 4.1 Calen
Page 85 and 86: increased marketing and extension s
Page 87 and 88: Electricity & Water For FY 2010/11,
Page 89 and 90: J$ Million Figure 5.1. Private Sect
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2011/12). These extreme weather eve
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Chapter 6 ________________ Assessme
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creates allocative inefficiencies,
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Million $ Per cent Jun-10 Mar-10 De
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Table 6.1. Employed Labour Force by
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J$ million Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun
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FIGURE 7: GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS RA
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4.10.2. However, the extent of the
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Part III ____________ Analytical Fr
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functional relationship between the
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It follows that: (5) s = I/Y = [S -
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However, the existence of measureme
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(d) v* = Y*/K* This is a measure of
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in Chapter 8. The mutual interactio
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Transforming the complex set of str
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Appendix 7A A Methodological Note T
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Chapter 8 ____________________ Asse
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The DBI focuses more narrowly on qu
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to ask, is it possible to predict g
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can be made to serve a very useful
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For further elaboration of the cons
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progressive Jamaica-based firms and
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Table 8.2. Jamaica: Doing Business,
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Table 8.4. Global Competitiveness I
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Table 8.5 (continued) Rank Indicato
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Rank* Constraint Table 8.7 Business
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Chapter 9 ___________________ Inter
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3.0 The Burdens of LAC’s Logistic
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conditions. These combined with a p
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Figure 9.4. Proportion of Primary A
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6.0 Logistics are Essential for Tou
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7.0 Fundamental Steps Forward for J
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Part IV ________________ Policies a
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Current Status: Cabinet by decision
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e more than compensated for by the
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B ____________________ Eliminating
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Commercial Bank loan rates have als
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5.0 Expected Outcomes These measure
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capital, mainly in the form of equi
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oth local and overseas (including t
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Table C.1. Proposed Implementation
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Locally, the Scientific Research Co
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Develop formal and informal links t
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D ____________________ Business Pro
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5.0 Recommendations Based on the ma
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2.5 Coexistent with the levels of u
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industry as well as provide funding
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Table E.2. Unemployed Labour Force
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indirect losses experienced when th
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Table F.1 (continued) Area Type of
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G ____________________ Community Re
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Figure G.1 Community Renewal Progra
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Table G.1 Priority Initiatives Obje
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Table G.2 Phased Implementation Pla
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H ____________________ Proposed Wes
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3.0 Transparency Guarantees By desi
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and Coordinating Unit (PCMU) was es
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therefore need to have sanctioned o
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Figure I.1. Functions of National P
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The rationalisation was guided by t
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deliver services in an efficient an
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efurbishing to allow for accommodat
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Part V _______________ Panelists’
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With the benefit of hindsight, some
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ight. Where we as a society fail is
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and exclusion of the majority of th
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the elders, youth, children. What f
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C __________________ Enhancing Nati
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Figure C.1. National resilience is
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PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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