PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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increasing climate variability, it would be expected that this topic should be included. 3. Climate variability and climate change projections need to be examined in more detail. Planning for the Caribbean should examine the impact of climate change over the next 100 years. Results from a 2010 modelling of the impact of climate change for the Caribbean, carried out under the Caribsave Project (Simpson et al), included: An increase in rainfall – more periods of rainfall which will lead to flooding and erosion Increasing temperatures (0.7 - 3.0C by 2099) An increase in extreme events such as droughts A rise in sea levels (an estimated 80% increase) which has implications for Jamaica as a large portion of coastal lands are of economic benefit to the country. Although the overall projection relates more to the medium and long-term, it should be noted that temperature and rainfall effects are already being felt. Jamaica should seek to invest less in the coastal areas which will, in a few decades become vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In planning for these areas, the design and implementation of infrastructure should be such that is it able to withstand climate related hazards. Areas such as the creation of resilient crops should also be considered. The main economic drivers, Agriculture, Tourism and Fisheries are all climate sensitive. Infrastructure is highly susceptible to climate-related hazards and proportionately suffers more damage than any other sector from weather-related hazards. Climate variability/change must, therefore, be adequately factored into planning in all sectors, regardless of the planning horizon. Another observation to be taken into consideration for the growth strategy is the effect of the earth’s heat on the fish nurseries. Recent data showed that the heat of the earth is being absorbed by the oceans. The bleaching of the coral reefs is another area to be explored because of its implications on limiting the lifespan of fishing stocks. 3.0 National Resilience In my view, resilience is multi-faceted. I will, therefore, broaden the discussion beyond the built and natural environments. In considering national resilience we must realise that our economy, our physical assets, our environmental assets and our human capital must all be robust. I have tried to represent this in Figure C.1, which shows that national resilience is achieved at the intersection of economic, environmental, physical and social resilience. Only when all these are resilient can we say that the nation is resilient. 215
Figure C.1. National resilience is multi-faceted Social National Resilience Economic Environment al Physical Hardening of infrastructure and buildings makes them more resistant to the impact of hazards. Sound management practices and conservation measures help to protect the environment, which in turn is important for mitigating the effects of weather–related hazards. Coral reefs and mangrove stands, for example, protect coastlines from wave action and storm surge. A diversified economy with adequate risk transfer mechanisms will be more robust, increasing resilience to disasters as well as providing an engine for growth and development. Social resilience is achieved by investing in our human resources. Social capital is not often included in discussions on resilience and economic growth. However, as Table 1 shows, there is a link between social resilience and doing business, and therefore presumably, economic growth and national resilience. Table C.1. Social Resilience and Business Enhancing Social Resilience (Saperstein) Global Competitiveness Indicators (GCI) Encouraging adaptation Fostering learning and education Supporting self organisation (of communities) Capacity for innovation Quality of educational system/education enrolment rate Transparency of government (policy making) 216
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i A GROWTH-INDUCEMENT STRATEGY FOR
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To the many ordinary Jamaicans who
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Preface The Jamaican economy has ex
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for making a determined start on th
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the private sector groups, listed b
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Citibank N.A. Jamaica Branch Grace
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need for “additional fiscal space
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Chapter 2 ________________ Summary
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1.0 The Economic Situation Today 1.
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expected to provide an essential an
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Table 2.1. The Policy Framework: A
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programme of social inclusion that
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Strategic Focus Table 2.2. Growth S
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6.0 Short-Term Growth Stimulus 6.1
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decline of 2.0 - 2.2 percentage poi
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Table 2A.2. NWA Projects To be Fast
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Table 2A.5. Community Renewal Proje
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Table 2B.3. Impact of Repairing Far
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Appendix 2C Methodology of the Grow
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Part I _________ Overview 28
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2.0 Vision 2030 Jamaica Before delv
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3.0 May 2010 Security Event and Aft
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the longer than anticipated global
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April July October January April Ju
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Three industries recorded increases
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9.0 Proposals for Growth-Stimulus I
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targeted economic and social infras
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partnering with government to disco
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3.0 Growth Inducement Strategy The
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Growth-Inducement Strategy Alignmen
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50 Part II _________ Situational An
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inadequate provision of public infr
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2.0 Macroeconomic Assessment 2.1 In
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Increased global oil consumption wa
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$4,742.0 million and $688.4 million
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Non -Traditional Domestic Exports E
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negative impact of the Jamaica Debt
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ethanol and paint, whereas lower de
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Analysis of preliminary GCT data re
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The number of ship calls to the isl
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industry was, however, estimated to
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4.0 Projected Performance 4.1 Calen
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increased marketing and extension s
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Electricity & Water For FY 2010/11,
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J$ Million Figure 5.1. Private Sect
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2011/12). These extreme weather eve
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Chapter 6 ________________ Assessme
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creates allocative inefficiencies,
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Million $ Per cent Jun-10 Mar-10 De
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Table 6.1. Employed Labour Force by
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J$ million Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun
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FIGURE 7: GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS RA
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4.10.2. However, the extent of the
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Part III ____________ Analytical Fr
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functional relationship between the
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It follows that: (5) s = I/Y = [S -
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However, the existence of measureme
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(d) v* = Y*/K* This is a measure of
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in Chapter 8. The mutual interactio
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Transforming the complex set of str
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Appendix 7A A Methodological Note T
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Chapter 8 ____________________ Asse
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The DBI focuses more narrowly on qu
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to ask, is it possible to predict g
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can be made to serve a very useful
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For further elaboration of the cons
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progressive Jamaica-based firms and
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Table 8.2. Jamaica: Doing Business,
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Table 8.4. Global Competitiveness I
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Table 8.5 (continued) Rank Indicato
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Rank* Constraint Table 8.7 Business
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Chapter 9 ___________________ Inter
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3.0 The Burdens of LAC’s Logistic
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conditions. These combined with a p
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Figure 9.4. Proportion of Primary A
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6.0 Logistics are Essential for Tou
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7.0 Fundamental Steps Forward for J
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Part IV ________________ Policies a
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Current Status: Cabinet by decision
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e more than compensated for by the
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B ____________________ Eliminating
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Commercial Bank loan rates have als
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5.0 Expected Outcomes These measure
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capital, mainly in the form of equi
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oth local and overseas (including t
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Table C.1. Proposed Implementation
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Locally, the Scientific Research Co
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