PIOJ Growth-Inducement Strategy - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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Table 5.11. Projected Change In Value Added By Industry At Constant (2003) Prices Industry FY 2010/11 Jan-Dec 2011 FY 2011/12 Goods Producing Industry 0.4 4.3 4.4 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing -0.4 3.0 3.3 Mining & Quarrying 24.0 38.2 33.8 Manufacture -2.4 0.3 0.8 of which: Food, Beverages & Tobacco -0.9 0.3 0.5 Other Manufacturing -4.3 0.4 1.1 Construction -1.0 1.1 1.2 Services Industry -1.2 1.2 1.4 Electricity & Water Supply -3.6 2.9 3.7 Transport, Storage & Communication -2.5 2.1 2.3 Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair and Installation of Machinery -1.2 0.9 1.0 Finance & Insurance Services -3.2 0.9 1.4 Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities -0.8 0.5 0.7 Producers of Government Services -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Hotels and Restaurants 2.3 3.8 4.0 Other Services 0.2 0.8 0.9 Less Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) -5.5 0.4 1.0 Total GDP at basic prices -0.6 1.9 2.1 Source: STATIN & PIOJ Higher value added is projected for the four quarters of the calendar year in all industries with the exception of Producers of Government Services expected to record growth. Industries expected to register the strongest increase are Mining & Quarrying and Hotels & Restaurants. The Mining & Quarrying industry is projected to grow by 38.2 per cent. This is attributable mainly to the proposed reopening of WINDALCO’s Kirkvine plant during the second half of 2011. The Hotels and Restaurants industry is expected to register continued robust growth consistent with economic recovery in the main source markets coupled with increased marketing in emerging markets. Down-side risks to the projected growth out-turn for the economy are: higher than anticipated rise in international commodity prices adverse weather conditions Agriculture For 2011, real value added for the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry is projected to increase by 3.0 per cent. This is based on the continuation of favourable weather conditions as well as the Ministry of Agriculture’s Production and Productivity Improvement Programme aimed at improving best practice methodologies in the industry. The improved performance should also be influenced by the Ministry’s focus on 73
increased marketing and extension services as well as the integration of primary production into the value chain by the linking of farmers and buyers in the retail, agroprocessing and tourism industries. Electricity & Water Growth is expected in the Electricity & Water industry in 2011, supported by higher gross electricity and water production. The higher value added projected for January- March 2011 is expected to continue in ensuing quarters. The performance for 2011 should emanate from: increased electricity demand, reflecting increased economic activity as the country recovers from the economic recession higher water production compared with the corresponding period of 2010 when there was reduced production consequent on the drought conditions that prevailed. Further expansion in the industry may be stymied by higher crude oil prices. This should result in an up-tick in electricity cost, thereby reducing demand as consumers employ conservation strategies to ease the cost burden. Nevertheless, the industry should benefit from a boost in electricity and water production as projects to expand and improve supplies are implemented. Transport, Storage & Communication Real value added for the Transport, Storage and Communication industry is expected to increase in 2011 relative to 2010 as growth is forecast for both components of the industry. This will be facilitated by, among other thing, higher cargo movement associated with: increased mining and quarrying activities consequent on the reopening of the Kirkvine plant general growth in merchandize trade volumes as the economy continues to recover from the global recession growth in cruise activities, due in part to the opening of the Falmouth Pier increased passenger movements consistent with the projected increase in stopover arrivals. Additionally, the industry should benefit from the implementation of new projects and continued expansion in telecommunication activities. 4.2 Fiscal Year 2010/11 28 For FY2010/11, the Jamaican economy is expected to decline by 0.6 per cent. This represents a slowing in the pace of decline compared with FY 2009/10 when the economy declined by 2.5 per cent. The estimated out-turn for FY 2010/11 is based on a 28 FY 2010/11 real GDP figures are based on official April-September 2010 figures from STATIN and preliminary October 2010 – March 2011 estimates from the PIOJ. 74
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i A GROWTH-INDUCEMENT STRATEGY FOR
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To the many ordinary Jamaicans who
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Preface The Jamaican economy has ex
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for making a determined start on th
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the private sector groups, listed b
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Citibank N.A. Jamaica Branch Grace
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need for “additional fiscal space
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Chapter 2 ________________ Summary
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1.0 The Economic Situation Today 1.
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expected to provide an essential an
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Table 2.1. The Policy Framework: A
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programme of social inclusion that
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Strategic Focus Table 2.2. Growth S
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6.0 Short-Term Growth Stimulus 6.1
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decline of 2.0 - 2.2 percentage poi
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Table 2A.2. NWA Projects To be Fast
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Page 35 and 36: Table 2B.3. Impact of Repairing Far
Page 37 and 38: Appendix 2C Methodology of the Grow
Page 39 and 40: Part I _________ Overview 28
Page 41 and 42: 2.0 Vision 2030 Jamaica Before delv
Page 43 and 44: 3.0 May 2010 Security Event and Aft
Page 45 and 46: the longer than anticipated global
Page 47 and 48: April July October January April Ju
Page 49 and 50: Three industries recorded increases
Page 51 and 52: 9.0 Proposals for Growth-Stimulus I
Page 53 and 54: targeted economic and social infras
Page 55 and 56: partnering with government to disco
Page 57 and 58: 3.0 Growth Inducement Strategy The
Page 59 and 60: Growth-Inducement Strategy Alignmen
Page 61 and 62: 50 Part II _________ Situational An
Page 63 and 64: inadequate provision of public infr
Page 65 and 66: 2.0 Macroeconomic Assessment 2.1 In
Page 67 and 68: Increased global oil consumption wa
Page 69 and 70: $4,742.0 million and $688.4 million
Page 71 and 72: Non -Traditional Domestic Exports E
Page 73 and 74: negative impact of the Jamaica Debt
Page 75 and 76: ethanol and paint, whereas lower de
Page 77 and 78: Analysis of preliminary GCT data re
Page 79 and 80: The number of ship calls to the isl
Page 81 and 82: industry was, however, estimated to
Page 83: 4.0 Projected Performance 4.1 Calen
Page 87 and 88: Electricity & Water For FY 2010/11,
Page 89 and 90: J$ Million Figure 5.1. Private Sect
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Page 95 and 96: creates allocative inefficiencies,
Page 97 and 98: Million $ Per cent Jun-10 Mar-10 De
Page 99 and 100: Table 6.1. Employed Labour Force by
Page 101 and 102: J$ million Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun
Page 103 and 104: FIGURE 7: GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS RA
Page 105 and 106: 4.10.2. However, the extent of the
Page 107 and 108: Part III ____________ Analytical Fr
Page 109 and 110: functional relationship between the
Page 111 and 112: It follows that: (5) s = I/Y = [S -
Page 113 and 114: However, the existence of measureme
Page 115 and 116: (d) v* = Y*/K* This is a measure of
Page 117 and 118: in Chapter 8. The mutual interactio
Page 119 and 120: Transforming the complex set of str
Page 121 and 122: Appendix 7A A Methodological Note T
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 ____________________ Asse
Page 125 and 126: The DBI focuses more narrowly on qu
Page 127 and 128: to ask, is it possible to predict g
Page 129 and 130: can be made to serve a very useful
Page 131 and 132: For further elaboration of the cons
Page 133 and 134: progressive Jamaica-based firms and
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Table 8.2. Jamaica: Doing Business,
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Table 8.4. Global Competitiveness I
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Table 8.5 (continued) Rank Indicato
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Rank* Constraint Table 8.7 Business
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Chapter 9 ___________________ Inter
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3.0 The Burdens of LAC’s Logistic
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conditions. These combined with a p
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Figure 9.4. Proportion of Primary A
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6.0 Logistics are Essential for Tou
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7.0 Fundamental Steps Forward for J
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Part IV ________________ Policies a
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Current Status: Cabinet by decision
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e more than compensated for by the
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B ____________________ Eliminating
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Commercial Bank loan rates have als
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5.0 Expected Outcomes These measure
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capital, mainly in the form of equi
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oth local and overseas (including t
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Table C.1. Proposed Implementation
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Locally, the Scientific Research Co
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Develop formal and informal links t
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D ____________________ Business Pro
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5.0 Recommendations Based on the ma
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2.5 Coexistent with the levels of u
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industry as well as provide funding
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Table E.2. Unemployed Labour Force
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indirect losses experienced when th
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Table F.1 (continued) Area Type of
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G ____________________ Community Re
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Figure G.1 Community Renewal Progra
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Table G.1 Priority Initiatives Obje
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Table G.2 Phased Implementation Pla
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H ____________________ Proposed Wes
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3.0 Transparency Guarantees By desi
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and Coordinating Unit (PCMU) was es
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therefore need to have sanctioned o
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Figure I.1. Functions of National P
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The rationalisation was guided by t
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deliver services in an efficient an
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efurbishing to allow for accommodat
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Part V _______________ Panelists’
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With the benefit of hindsight, some
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ight. Where we as a society fail is
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and exclusion of the majority of th
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the elders, youth, children. What f
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C __________________ Enhancing Nati
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Figure C.1. National resilience is
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