413047-Underground-Commercial-Sex-Economy

Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................1
Purpose and Goals of This Study ................................................................................................................... 1
Research Questions ......................................................................................................................................... 1
Methodology .................................................................................................................................................... 1
Main Findings ................................................................................................................................................. 2
Sex Trafficking and Sex Work Findings ......................................................................................................... 2
Child Pornography Findings .......................................................................................................................... 3
Policy and Practice Implications .................................................................................................................... 4
Chapter 1
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 6
Purpose of the Study ....................................................................................................................................... 6
Background on the Prevalence of Human Trafficking in the United States ................................................ 7
Chapter 2
Research Questions and Methodology ................................................................................. 9
Research Questions ......................................................................................................................................... 9
Terminology .................................................................................................................................................... 9
Research Design ............................................................................................................................................ 10
Site Selection Process ................................................................................................................................... 10
Stakeholder Interview Process ..................................................................................................................... 12
Offender Interview Process .......................................................................................................................... 13
The Evolution of UCSE Estimate ................................................................................................................. 16
Limitations of the Study .............................................................................................................................. 20
Chapter 3
Methodology and Derivation of Illicit Economy Estimates ................................................. 22
Existing Approaches to Estimate Illegal, Underground Economies .......................................................... 23
Process for Deriving Estimates (Overview) ................................................................................................. 24
1.1. The Law of Cash Conservation .......................................................................................................... 25
1.1.1 Process for Deriving Estimates (In Depth) .................................................................................. 27
1.2. Constraints by Proxy Ratios .............................................................................................................. 27
1.2.1. Linear Proxy ............................................................................................................................28
1.2.2. Linear Proxy .......................................................................................................................... 34
1.2.3. Linear Proxy ......................................................................................................................... 35
1.2.4. Linear Proxy ........................................................................................................................... 36
1.3. The Left Hand Side : Estimating Total Cash in Circulation ......................................................... 36
1.4. The Linear Program ...........................................................................................................................38
1.4.1. Sex Proxy Ratio Constraints ........................................................................................................38
1.4.2. Drug Proxy Ratio Constraints .................................................................................................... 40
1.4.3. Gun Proxy Ratio Constraints ...................................................................................................... 42
1.4.4. Other Proxy Ratio Constraints ................................................................................................... 44
1.4.5. Positivity Constraints .................................................................................................................. 46
1.4.6. An Objective Function Based on the Law of Cash Conservation .............................................. 47
1.4.7. Techniques for Solving the Linear Program ............................................................................. 48
1.5. Geometric Intuition .......................................................................................................................... 48
1.6. Solution of the Linear Program ......................................................................................................... 49
1.6.1. Sex (UCSE) Rankings .................................................................................................................. 50
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