413047-Underground-Commercial-Sex-Economy

Chapter 3
Methodology and Derivation of Illicit
Economy Estimates
This chapter will respond to our first research question and sub-questions:
1. How large is the underground commercial sex economy in eight major US cities
a. How does the size of the underground commercial sex economy in these eight cities
compare to the underground drug and weapons economies in these eight cities
b. How have these economies changed over time
Table 3.1 provides the estimated dollar amounts for the cash-based 34 sex, weapons, drugs, and other 35
economies for all eight study sites for 2003 and 2007. Estimates of the UCSE in 2007 range from $39.9 to
$290 million in the cities included in the study. In all but two cities, estimates of the size of the UCSE in
each city decreased from 2003 to 2007.
Table 3.1 Estimates of Illicit Markets for Sex, Drugs and Guns and UCE/CE for Other Goods (millions)
City Year Sex Drugs Guns Other
Atlanta 2003 $238 $104 $169 $14,500
Atlanta 2007 $290 $117 $146 $16,000
Dallas 2003 $99.4 $134 $171 $16,900
Dallas 2007 $98.8 $191 $171 $19,000
Denver 2003 $47.2 $54.7 $58.4 $7,470
Denver 2007 $39.9 $63.9 $47.4 $7,820
Miami 2003 $302 $93.4 $106 $15,300
Miami 2007 $235 $95.7 $118 $14,700
San Diego 2003 $124 $105 $46.6 $8,490
San Diego 2007 $96.6 $96.3 $47.7 $8,740
Seattle 2003 $50.3 $87.3 $83.1 $9,840
Seattle 2007 $112 $87.4 $60.1 $11,800
DC 2003 $155 $111 $150 $17,700
DC 2007 $103 $103 $160 $20,300
This chapter provides a detailed description of the analytic techniques employed to estimate the size of
the cash-based underground commercial sex economy (UCSE), in addition to the size of the cash-based
underground weapons and drugs economies. However, this chapter does not attempt to explain why
34 We recognize that the UCSE is not only cash-based, and that some UCSE facilitators accept credit and other material goods as
payment. However, as a first step in estimating the UCSE, we focused solely on the cash-based economy.
35 Other includes the legal cash economy and all other underground economies with the exception of sex, drugs, and weapons.
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