Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.80 Low investment is especially evident in Africa. The network of hydrometstations is sparse and deteriorating, and hydromet data are often spotty and inaccurate.Existing stations are often not functioning or fail to communicate with the globalmeteorological network (Figure 3.3). These shortcomings are especially serious giventhe large proportion of Africans engaged in agriculture and the very high variability ofAfrican precipitation relative to the mean.Figure 3.3. Status of Weather Stations, 2010-11Top panel: SYNOP data (daily reports)Bottom panel: CLIMAT data (monthly climatology)Source: World Meteorological Organization, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/ois/monitor/index_en.html57
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.81 Efforts to improve hydromet services offer potentially high economic returns.GFDRR (Subbiah, L. Bildan and others 2008) estimates returns of 165 percent to 568percent for early warning systems and seasonal forecasts. World Bank estimates of fiveyearbenefit:cost ratios for hydromet investments in South Eastern Europe ranging from1:1 for Montenegro to between 7:1 and 11:1 for Serbia(UN International Strategy forDisaster Reduction Secretariat - Europe, World Bank and others 2008). A study ofRussia (World Bank 2005) estimated benefit:cost ratios of 4.5:1 to 10:1 for hydrometmodernization, motivating a large Bank loan. Economic rates of return for hydrometinvestment projects in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic were estimated at 23.6percent and 53.4 percent, respectively (GFDRR 2010). These estimates are intuitivelyappealing, but sometimes flawed (see Annex F2). Better economic analysis would behelpful to screen and motivate investments in low-income countries. Analysis is needalso of the returns to “data rescue.” This involves digitizing handwritten archives ofhydromet observations—a low-cost activity that could, for instance, boost the reliabilityof hydropower or irrigation project appraisal, and improve the calibration of climatemodels.WORLD BANK EXPERIENCE3.82 Over 1985-2011, the World Bank has financed 132 projects that supportedhydromet improvements. 39 Twelve projects provided comprehensive support fornational-level hydromet systems at a cost of $380 million. About nine-tenths of projectfunding went to 8 IBRD countries (Albania, Brazil, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru,Poland, Russia, and Turkey), while the remainder went to 4 IDA countries/regions(Afghanistan, Central Asia, Moldova, and Sri Lanka). An additional 120 projects(including 18 in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5 in the Middle East and North Africa)supported partial systems or specific needs, at a cost of at least $917million.NATIONAL-LEVEL PROJECTS3.83 Five national hydromet systems (NHMS) projects have been completed andevaluated. 40 These were all in disaster-prone middle-income countries, and four of theprojects immediately followed national climate disasters. Consequently, the projects allaimed at improving early warning systems while also upgrading their hydrometmonitoring systems.3.84 All five countries were able to upgrade their systems, and prospects forsustainability looked good in most. IEG’s 2005 evaluation of the Turkey project foundforecasting achievements to be sustainable, and a 2011 assessment (United NationsDevelopment Programme, World Meteorological Organization and others 2011)suggests that the additional equipment funded under the Bank loan (363 stations) is stillin use eight years after the project closed. The same assessment states, however, that58
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Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
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ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
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CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
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AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
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GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
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GLOSSARYSustainable land management
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AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
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OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
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OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
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OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
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Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
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Page 54 and 55: 2. Climate Adaptation at the World
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Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
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Page 104 and 105: 4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
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Page 128 and 129: 5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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Page 139 and 140: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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