Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE ADAPTATIONF3. Comparison of Analytic Models of Climate Change Impact on HydropowerStudyNepal: Khimti 160 MW run ofriverStenek ConnellFirth Colley(2011)Kafue GorgeLower750 MW station,part of a 3 dam, 3reservoir systemwith importantenvironmentalflow requirementsStenek and others2011Zambezi BasinBasinwidemodeling ofhydropower andirrigationStrzepek andothers 2011Modeling approach andissues4 GCMs*2 emissionsscenarios.A regression model relatedpast annual climate conditionsto water flows. The regressionwas then used for futureprojections.However, water flows for 1985-1994 were drastically higherthan for 1995-2006. Projectionswere made based on each ofthese differing baselines.No reliable info on snowpackcontribution to summer runoff.3 GCMs * 2 emissionsscenarios were statisticallydownscaled and fed into ahydrological model to assessfinancial and flood risk impacts.Only one realization of eachGCM was used, leading toincorrect interpretation ofclimate impact. (see note*).56 GCM/emission scenariosapplied to basin models withoutdownscaling.Findings on climate impactGCMs gave widely varyingprecipitation projections—someincreasing, some decreasing.(Basin is highly dependent onmonsoon rainfall, but monsoonsare poorly modeled.) Thesechanges were added to divergentbaselines. Hence, uncertainty wastoo great to allow quantitativeimpact assessments.Baseline IRR=21.6%IRR under climatechange=19.7±2.4%Average annual loss from droughtincreases from current $2.1 millionto $3.4 to $5 million over 2010-2039. Flood and landslide lossesare small.Almost all GCMS show areduction in precipitation; meanreduction is 20%. This is projectedto heighten the tradeoff betweenpower production and irrigation,because water availability isreduced. Power production has ahigher economic value, butirrigation provides much moreemployment.AdaptationrecommendationsBecause the plant is alreadyin place, recommendationsare no-regret, low regret, andadaptive management,emphasizing ongoingmonitoring of flows andenhancement of capacity.Model results not used toassess recommendations.A variety of no regrets andlow regrets measures wereproposed, together withcostlier ones (increasereservoir capacity). But thereis insufficient information toassess costs and benefits.Repeat analysis with a morerefined model, reassessinginvestment plans andconsidering agriculturaladaptation options.*Note: The Kafue Gorge Lower analysis compares projected outcomes for 2010-2039 under the A2 (high) andB1 (low) global emissions scenarios, finding divergent results. It concludes that the economic returns will belower under A2. However, a well-known feature of these scenarios is that the higher emissions under A2 do notnoticeably affect the overall atmospheric accumulation of CO2—and hence have little impact on the climatesystem—until the 2040s. So it is implausible that KGL performance would drastically differ between the twoscenarios. The difference appears to reflect random variation between a single realization of each scenario. Thatis, many possible weather sequences are compatible with each of the two emissions scenarios. By chance, thestudy arrived at a particularly unfavorable A2 scenario and a favorable B1 scenario. A side analysis ran 9randomly “tweaked” versions of A2, arriving at a range of possible outcomes (reported in the findings columnabove).121
Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG1. Selection of SLWM and Watershed Project SampleThere is no formal categorization of sustainable land and water management orwatershed management projects. A portfolio was compiled by amalgamating thefollowing sets of projects:1. Land management projects (approved FY01-11) identified by the Agriculture andRural Development Anchor. These comprise the types listed below. There were 95active and 35 closed projects. Of the 35 closed projects, 14 were identified as beingrelated to sustainable land and water management.Land Conservation ResearchErosion ControlLand ProtectionIntegration of Strategy for Sustainable Land ManagementLand management research and extensionLand degradation prevention and controlSustainable land management practices (such as no-till farming, agroforestry,mixed cropping, etc)Impact measurementLand Resources Management (e.g., terracing, crop/pasture rotation,conservation tillage, buffer strips, pastoral /rangeland/forest landmanagement, watershed management)Land Resources Conservation (e.g., combating desertification, soildegradation, soil erosion, pollution control, land related biodiversity)Land resources management research and extension2. Watershed management projects, as identified by an ENV review that coveredprojects approved 1998-2010. This was augmented by a search for “watershedmanagement” within the objectives and components of closed agricultural projectsreviewed in IEG’s Agriculture Evaluation for the same period. There were 49 activeand 23 closed projects. Of the latter 12 were identified as being mostly devoted towatershed management; 4 were also listed in the land management portfoliomentioned above.122
Page 1 and 2:
Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
Page 4 and 5:
ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
Page 6 and 7:
CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
Page 8:
AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
Page 11 and 12:
GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
Page 13 and 14:
GLOSSARYSustainable land management
Page 16:
AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
Page 19 and 20:
STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 21 and 22:
STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 23 and 24:
OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
Page 25 and 26:
OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
Page 27 and 28:
OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
Page 29 and 30:
OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
Page 32 and 33:
Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
Page 34 and 35:
MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
Page 36:
MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
Page 39 and 40:
ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 41 and 42:
ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 44 and 45:
1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
Page 46 and 47:
CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
Page 48 and 49:
CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
Page 50 and 51:
CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
Page 52 and 53:
CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
Page 54 and 55:
2. Climate Adaptation at the World
Page 56 and 57:
CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
Page 58 and 59:
Page 60 and 61:
Page 62 and 63:
Page 64 and 65:
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
3. Dealing with Climate Variability
Page 76 and 77:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
Page 78 and 79:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
Page 80 and 81:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
Page 82 and 83:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
Page 84 and 85:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
Page 86 and 87:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.34 An
Page 88 and 89:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYto incr
Page 90 and 91:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYdisaste
Page 92 and 93:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYTHE BAN
Page 94 and 95:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.59 Li
Page 96 and 97:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfund di
Page 98 and 99:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfrom se
Page 100 and 101:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.80 Lo
Page 102 and 103:
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYonly ha
Page 104 and 105:
4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
Page 106 and 107:
CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONlev
Page 108 and 109:
CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
Page 110 and 111:
CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFor
Page 112 and 113:
CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
Page 114 and 115: CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONBox
Page 116 and 117: CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONANA
Page 118 and 119: CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONfut
Page 120 and 121: Integration of Climate Change Consi
Page 122 and 123: CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONare
Page 124 and 125: CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONcha
Page 126 and 127: CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONres
Page 128 and 129: 5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
Page 130 and 131: CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
Page 136: CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
Page 139 and 140: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
Page 141 and 142: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearPro
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
Page 145 and 146: Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
Page 147 and 148: APPENDIX B• Social Development St
Page 149 and 150: APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
Page 151 and 152: Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
Page 153 and 154: APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
Page 155 and 156: APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
Page 157 and 158: Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
Page 159 and 160: APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
Page 161 and 162: APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
Page 163: APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
Page 167 and 168: Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
Page 169 and 170: APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
Page 171 and 172: Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
Page 173 and 174: APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
Page 175 and 176: APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
Page 177 and 178: APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
Page 179 and 180: REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
Page 181 and 182: REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
Page 183 and 184: REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
Page 186 and 187: ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
Page 188 and 189: ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
Page 190 and 191: ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
Page 192 and 193: ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
show all

Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?