Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a GFDRR work product – “Strengthening Weather and ClimateInformation Decision-support Systems (WCIDS) The World Bank Portfolio 1996 to 2011” --that is in preparation. The GFDRR WCIDS team kindly shared its early draft with IEG insupport of our review.40 Information based on ICRs for Poland (P053796), Mexico (P007713), Peru(P054667),Dominican Republic41 There has been increasing use of satellite-based remote-sensing measurements. WorldBank studies have used TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data, which is freelyavailable and covers areas that are sparsely gauged. However, remote sensing can neverfully substitute for surface-based measurements.42 “The transition to AWS is often instigated by a perception that these systems are cheaperto operate and easier to manage than human observers. The ETAWS cautioned that this wasnot the experience of a number of member countries. Therefore, it identified a number ofresponsibilities and costs that may not be immediately apparent to those that adoptautomatic systems.” WMO. 2009. Implementation and use of Automatic Weather Stations(AWSs) (Submitted by the WMO Secretariat). AOPCXV Doc. 6.2a43 While some climate change studies attempt to describe the probability distribution offuture outcomes, they typically do this by combining a large number of different climatemodels and/or parameter realizations and then implicitly assuming that each inputpossibility is equally likely. This generates a distribution across future climate states, butthis is not a true probability distribution.44 See Ullsfjord et al, who find that a Norwegian hydropower plant should enlarge itscapacity to take advantage of enhanced snowmelt over coming decades.45 A study of Asian Megacities (World Bank 2010) noted that “vulnerability mapping, landuse planning and zoning could be used to restrict future development in hazardouslocations, ultimately retiring key infrastructure and vulnerable buildings in these areas,”and support “zoning controls to ensure that low income housing is located outside of floodprone zones” for Ho Chi Minh City. It also identified “Retreat” as one of four possibleadaptive options, noting “planning option[s] to reduce exposure can be applied in urban areasthrough urban land use plans and zoning codes.”A study of North African coastal cities (World Bank 2010) calls for an integrated approachfor detailed land use planning and urban design for Casablanca, factoring in climate-relatedvulnerabilities in considering use for vacant land. It notes that floodprone areas should becarefully screened to avoid worsening inundation and drainage problems. It notes that“climate-resilient urban planning will be crucial for Tunis to manage the risks caused bynatural hazards and climate change,” recommending upgrading of drainage, containment ofillegal housing and careful zoning with green spaces.46 An IEG search for projects supporting large scale spatial planning or land-use zoning fordisaster risk reduction found only one example, the India Coastal Zone ManagementProject. Land use zoning projects were identified via text search of documents, polling ofknowledgeable urban and land management staff, and review of a Bank-identified portfolioof active and pipeline land use planning and zoning projects over 2003-9 (World Bank 2009,147
ENDNOTESBackground Note to the Interim Guidance on Land Use Planning Review of Environmentaland Social Considerations in World Bank Land Use Planning Projects—Key Findings andGood Practice)47 Some agencies have adopted very high level guidance encouraging assessment of climaterisk without providing context-specific advice.48Agreed SLWM indicators are income, yield and biophysical indicators changes.49 Pre 2006 closure.50 ISRO—India Space Research Organization Evaluations of Phase I and Phase II: ISRO.2009. ―Impact Assessment of Sujala Project: Final Report. Antrix Corporation, India SpaceResearch Organization. Bengaluru. June 2009.51 Baseline and control groups are established for the M&E for other than income, yield andbiophysical indicators (except forest cover)52 Economic analysis of a sample of 200 subprojects revealed considerable variability in theprofitability of different types of activities. Consistently more profitable activities: poultryproduction, rice production, vegetable production, banana gardens, and grain milling.Consistently less profitable activities: production of basic cereals (sorghum, millet, beans,maize), small ruminant production, establishment of plant nurseries.53 Three scenarios depending on financial sustainability: 1. Assuming no further fundingfor the incomplete sub-projects. 2. Assuming additional government resources for those thathad already received two tranches. 3.Assuming additional government resources for thosethat had received either one or two tranches. The ERRs for these were 9 percent, 15 percent,and 19 percent respectively, all lower than the 21 percent projected at appraisal.54 M&E by implementing agency has been adequate in the tracking of implementationprogress, but weak in providing an assessment of the impact on agricultural production andfarm incomes55 PEMBH State (Bank-financed) Micro-catchment Program, Plantio Direto —minimumtillage56 From ICR: The project did not fully succeed in setting up an effective Monitoring andEvaluation (M&E) system. This prevented the PMU from efficiently managing time,resources and project data and from taking appropriate and timely action.57 Including non-accounted benefits.58 (from 1.48t/ha (baseline) to 2.26t/ha)59 from 1.55t/ha to 1.84t/ha60 The area of settled rainy season rice grew from 37 ha to 47 ha, the area of settled dryseason rice increased from 8 ha to 15 ha, and the number of village vegetable gardensincreased from 103 to 185. But there is no indication in the ICR of the level of yield andoutput increases.148
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Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
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ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
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CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
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AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
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GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
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GLOSSARYSustainable land management
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AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
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OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
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OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
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OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
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Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
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2. Climate Adaptation at the World
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CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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3. Dealing with Climate Variability
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.34 An
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYto incr
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYdisaste
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYTHE BAN
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.59 Li
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfund di
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfrom se
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.80 Lo
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYonly ha
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4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONlev
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFor
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONBox
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONANA
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONfut
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Integration of Climate Change Consi
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONare
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONcha
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONres
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5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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Page 139 and 140: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
Page 145 and 146: Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
Page 147 and 148: APPENDIX B• Social Development St
Page 149 and 150: APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
Page 151 and 152: Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
Page 153 and 154: APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
Page 155 and 156: APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
Page 157 and 158: Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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Page 161 and 162: APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
Page 163 and 164: APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Page 167 and 168: Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
Page 169 and 170: APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
Page 171 and 172: Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
Page 173 and 174: APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
Page 175 and 176: APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
Page 177 and 178: APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
Page 179 and 180: REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
Page 181 and 182: REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
Page 183 and 184: REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
Page 186 and 187: ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
Page 188 and 189: ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
Page 192 and 193: ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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