Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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Appendix ASustainable Land and Water Management ProjectsPIDCountryApprovalYearP056516China2001P067216India2001P064965Rwanda2001P062714Yemen2001P057847Armenia2002Project nameWaterConservationKarnatakaWatershedDevelopmentProjectRural SectorSupportProjectIrrigationImprovementProjectNaturalResourcesManagementand PovertyReviewedas SLWMportfolioAll SLWMindicatorstargeted 48All SLWMindicatorstargetedAt least oneSLWMindicator isnot targetedAll SLWMindicatorstargetedAt least oneSLWMindicator isnot targetedICR reviewoutcomeHighlySatisfactoryICR reviewefficacyNot rated 49Source Outcomes SLM Interventions SLWM ERRWB ARDAnchor dataSatisfactory Substantial WB ARDAnchor dataSatisfactory Substantial WB ARDAnchor dataModeratelySatisfactoryModeratelySatisfactorySubstantialModestWB ARDAnchor dataWB ARDAnchor dataFarmer’s incomes increased morethan was anticipated at appraisalexceeding PAD projections by152% to 257%. Increase in yieldsfrom baseline, (kilograms per unitof ET; kg/m3) : wheat—82%,corn—183%, rice—70%.Groundwater overdraft wasreduced by about 30%.Income rise relative to controlgroup of +54% in Phase I and+53% in Phase II (ICR), or+20.4% in Phase I and +24.4% inPhase II according to ISRO 50 .Yield: increase averaged acrosscrops and relative to controlgroups of 24% for Phase I, and26% for Phase II. Increase inground water level by 50 ft, 61 ftand 90 ft is observed in the 3 agroecologicalzones (no controlgroup). Groundwater dischargerises from 250 to 325 gallons/hour(no control group). According toISRO, increase of water yield by 1to 2.5 inches across treated areasis recorded.No targets set for income andbiophysical changes. Yield: Thequantities and shares of marketedcrop output per HH amongbeneficiary farmers are at least50% higher than the baseline(includes banana, maize, beans,cassava).Average yields increased by 50 %for cotton, 49 % for grainsorghum, 53 % for sesame, 62 %for tomatoes and 73 % for onion.Typical small and medium sizefarms have increased their incomein about 45 to 89%. In the threecommand areas, IIP increased theusable recharge to groundwater byat least 3million m3/yearNo targets set for biophysicalchanges. Survey: between 2002and 2008 incomes rose by 21.5%in villages targeted by the project,(a) irrigationand drainage works and on-farmsystems, includingcanal lining, low-pressure pipes,drains, wells,surface irrigation improvements,sprinklers, andmicro-irrigation systems; (b)agriculture support andservicesWatershed development: Fieldoperations in 77 sub-watersheds;social, infrastructural andeconomic activities subprojects;competitive farmer drivenresearch program; disseminationof technologies and informationon watershed management,including practicaldemonstrationsHillside management (irrigation,terracing), marchlandsdevelopmentspate irrigation, groundwaterresources conservationSilvo-pastoral agro-forestrysystems and biogas productioninstallations. Communitypasture management.PAD—20.7%,ICR—24%PAD:16.4%,ICR:17.7%PAD:19%ICR: 45%IRR:PAD—11.2%,ICR—16.6%PAD:20%,ICR 13%M&E:baselineM&E :controlgroupsM&E: indicatorsand outcomesconnectedGender-povertyyes yes yes Not measured in M&E.Estimates show womenparticipation in WUA 30-40%.Many beneficiaries are poor(poor counties)yes yes yes Reduced migration. Someundocumented cash requestsfrom large farmers to poorfarmers in exchange for theemployment. Strengthenedwomen’s economic and socialstatus.yes not not Gender impact is not reported,no indicators.yes yes yes gender is not an objective,included in post projectevaluation by ICR, not in M&E.not yes not no gender, no indicators forpoverty, however projectincreased income for ruralpopulation, most of the poor liveSustainabilityThere are possible financialrisks to the sustainability ofproject outcomes.Environmental risk—decliningprecipitation which wouldconstrain water resources stillfurther and could lead to adecline in farmer incomes insome areas.Improvements to common landswill in some cases not besustained because of increasingpressure for fuelwood andgrazing resources; risk ofreduction of groundwater level:state subsidies to farmers onelectricity for bore welloperation; financialsustainability of social groupsEconomic, financial,institutional, social risks arelow. Environmental risks: it ispossible that the cumulativeimpact of Project-supportedactivities in combination withactivities being financed throughother projects and programscould have a combined adverseeffect on the environment.Abnormal/unpredictabledroughts in southern Yemen,chronic inequitable uplandlowlandwater/land distribution status inwestern Yemen, increasedproductivity per ha (meetingPDO 2) resulting from increasedwater use per haSustainability of some activitiessuch as the fertilization programfor pasture and hay meadowsmay be low due to high input95
APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP043869Brazil2002P073094India2003P072317Tunisia2003P074266Chad2004Project nameReductionProjectSantaCatarinaNaturalResourcesManagementAnd RuralPovertyReductionProjectAndhraPradeshCommunityForestManagementProjectNorthwestMountainousAnd ForestryAreasDevelopmentProjectAgriculturalServices AndProducerOrganizationsProjectReviewedas SLWMportfolioAt least oneSLWMindicator isnot targetedNo targetsset forincome,yield andbiophysicalindicatorschanges.At least oneSLWMindicator isnot targetedAt least oneSLWMindicator isnot targetedICR reviewoutcomeICR reviewefficacySatisfactory Substantial WB ARDAnchordata/WatershedModeratelySatisfactoryModeratelySatisfactoryModeratelyUnsatisfactorySubstantialModestModestSource Outcomes SLM Interventions SLWM ERRWB ARDAnchor dataWB ARDAnchor dataWB ARDAnchor datacompared with 8.5% in nonprojectvillages. Over 30% highercrop yields, 31% higherproduction (compared to nonprojectvillages) of wool and milk,and increased animal weight forcattle and sheep.No targets set for biophysicalchanges. Incomes of the sampledbeneficiaries increased on average30.6% vs. 16.5% for the controlgroup, ranging from 9.7% to18.5% higher than that of thecontrol group. Net farm incomerose an incremental 105%.No targets set for income, yieldand biophysical indicatorschanges. No target was set atappraisal for the increase in theproportion of the project area withdense forest cover; but satelliteimages show that of the 9,210km2 under the jurisdiction offorest user groups (VSS)participating in the project, 1,728km2 qualified as dense forest in2002 rising to 2,149 km2 in 2010.No targets set for biophysicalchanges. ICR: average householdagricultural income increased by85% between 2003 and 2009 inconstant terms (97% of the target).Crop yields rose 84% for olivesand 35% for wheat. Vegetationand forest cover grew from 32%to 38%. 22,251 ha were treatedwith conservation works and54,880 ha including rangeland andforestry were improved (14%above the target). There appear tobe no soil loss change estimates ordam siltation rate changesNo targets set for biophysicalindicators changes. Change inyields measured on sample ofmicroprojects—increase in yieldfor millet/sorghum (60% tobaseline) and irrigated rice (77%to baseline). Increase in revenuesfor beneficiaries of subprojects—indicator was set, but no clearmeasurement of change (compareto baseline) 52 .Rehabilitate hay meadowsthrough reseeding, rotationalgrazing, and restoring degradedpasturelands; construct livestockwatering points.Watershed development—creation of ecological corridors,erosion control, sustainable landmanagement practices(including agroforestry)agroforestry, silvopastoralpracticesRehabilitation of small-scaleirrigation with water fromcommunity wells or existingsprings.Sustainable NRM: soil andwater conservation works,stonewalls, anti-erosionplantations, small dikes andgrass strips; improvement ofpasture in range lands anddegraded areas; agroforestrydevelopment, mainly throughthe establishment of plantationssuch as olive and fruit trees withsome forage for livestockInvestments in productiveinfrastructure such as drainageand irrigation; conservationfarming supportIRR:PAD-19%,ICR—45%.ERR:PAD—21%,ICR—20%ERR:PAD—17%,ICR- 27%ERR:PAD—21%,ICR: 3scenarios—9%,15%, 19%(depending onfinancialsustainability) 53 .The ICRreviewacceptedERR at9%, asthere wereno furtherfundingM&E:baselineM&E :controlgroupsM&E: indicatorsand outcomesconnectedin rural areasGender-povertyyes yes yes Poverty reduced in 64% of 880microcatchments (91% oftarget)gender is not an objective,not included in SEA, no M&E.yes 51 yes yes gender is not an objective, notincluded in SEA, part of M&E.yes not yes Gender was not included inM&E, however, at projectcompletion, women accountedfor 17%of CD members, 64% of thetraining in person/days for offfarmincome-generatingactivities, and51% of income-generatingactivities in terms of projectnumbers.yes yes not The project empowered manywomen and enhancedconfidence in their abilities, asreflected in the 339 subprojectsthat were formulated bywomen’s groups and the 146completed subprojects that weremanaged by womencosts.No risksSustainabilityThe lack of secure legal statusfor forest user groups and theburgeoning tribal claims toforest land raise doubts aboutthe long-term sustainability ofthe project’s achievements.There are issues of financialsustainability (governmentcommitment) and maintenance.High Risk. Lack of financingneeded to complete unfinishedsubprojects. Failure ofgovernment to honor fully itscommitment to provideadditional financing. Uncertainprospects for continued externalfunding. Loss of experiencedproject staff. Because of96
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Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
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ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
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CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
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AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
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GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
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GLOSSARYSustainable land management
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AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
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OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
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OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
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OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
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Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
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2. Climate Adaptation at the World
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CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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3. Dealing with Climate Variability
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
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Page 104 and 105: 4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
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Page 128 and 129: 5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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Page 141 and 142: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearPro
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Page 145 and 146: Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
Page 147 and 148: APPENDIX B• Social Development St
Page 149 and 150: APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
Page 151 and 152: Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
Page 153 and 154: APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
Page 155 and 156: APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
Page 157 and 158: Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
Page 159 and 160: APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
Page 161 and 162: APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
Page 163 and 164: APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
Page 165 and 166: Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
Page 167 and 168: Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
Page 169 and 170: APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
Page 171 and 172: Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
Page 173 and 174: APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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Page 177 and 178: APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
Page 179 and 180: REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
Page 181 and 182: REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
Page 183 and 184: REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
Page 186 and 187: ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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