Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

1. Context and ApproachHighlights Climate change intensifies long-standing risks (such as floods and droughts) and introduces newones, making development more expensive. “Climate adaptation” comprises adaptation to current levels of climate variability (ACV) as well asadaptation to climate change (ACC). Many kinds of ACV will contribute also to ACC. This evaluation draws lessons from the World Bank Group’s experience in dealing with bothclimate variability and with climate change. Some adaptation actions—those dealing with catastrophic events and long-term climate change—are necessarily evaluated long before final outcomes are observed, based on quality of design andof preparatory investments.1.1 Development takes place on the surface of a turbulent planet, amid stormsand heat waves, droughts and floods. As the world inexorably warms, these climaticchallenges intensify and new ones arise. This report draws lessons for climateadaptation from the World Bank Group’s experience in addressing climatevariability and the more recently recognized challenge of climate change. To set thestage, this chapter reviews the projected impacts of climate change, sets out anunderstanding of what climate adaptation means, and describes the evaluationapproach.Two Impacts of Climate Change1.2 The world is warming, as greenhouse gases from energy use, deforestation,and agriculture clog the atmosphere. Climate change manifests itself in two ways.First, climate variability, including extremes, is increasing, as floods and storms (forinstance) intensify. Second, there are long-term, transformational changes, such as sealevel rise.1.3 Climate extremes are getting worse. (Box 1-1). Some trends—such asincreases in warm days, heavy rainfall days, and coastal flooding—stand out clearly.Other trends are harder to detect against a background of high variability from yearto year—meaning that by the time a change is unambiguously detectable, it will belarge.1