Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfurther 1.5-2 meters even if groundwater use is curtailed by 2020 (World Bank 2011c).But Jakarta’s situation is shared by Bangkok and other coastal megacities (World Bank2010a).MANAGEMENT OF CURRENT DISASTER RISKS CONTRIBUTES TO CLIMATE ADAPTATION3.50 Figure 3.2 presents a taxonomy of disaster risk management efforts. Most of thedisaster risk management efforts will also promote long-term climate adaptation. First,systems that defend against current storms and floods will be generally helpful indefending against more intense future events. Second, disaster risk managementdepends heavily on capable institutions that prepare for, detect, and warn aboutdisasters, and manage recoveries after disaster hits. Current support for institutions canhelp accelerate the maturation of strong institutions to face mid-century challenges.Third, spatial policies offer the promise of reducing exposure to future hazards.Figure 3.2. Taxonomy of Disaster Risk Management EffortsDisaster risk managementImpact reductionDisaster responseFinancial risk managemente.g. reserve funds, insuranceRisk reductionCapacity buildinge.g. institutionalstrengthening, mappingPhysical risk reductionExposure reduction“Hard” physicale.g. dikes, drains“Soft” physicaleg wetlands, plantingEarly warningsystemsSpatial policiese.g land use zoningSource: IEG.3.51 However, some actions might help today but be ineffective or maladaptive in thelong run. For instance, coast-defending mangrove plantations may not survive sea levelrise or salinization. Small dykes that protect lowlands from chronic floods mightencourage settlements that would then be threatened by more severe floods.48