Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYonly half of Turkey’s stations are currently operational. In the Dominican Republic,maintenance was highlighted as a major problem, since it had been neglected in thepast and was likely to be neglected in the future.3.85 Capacity building—for equipment operation and for forecasting—was successfulin all five countries, although difficulties remained in the Dominican Republic.CONAGUA in Mexico, for example, developed the ability to provide accurate 96-hourweather forecasts. Both CONAGUA and IMGW of Poland have become sources ofleadership and capacity building for other countries.3.86 All five of the closed projects improved domestic information sharing betweenagencies. Peru overcame the greatest challenge, since four agencies had to coordinate toproduce El Niño forecasts. With the help of Bank staff, all four agencies overcame theirinitial differences and committed to financing these activities for at least 10 years. InTurkey, cooperation between the hydrological and meteorological services wasreported to be inadequate but improving (United Nations Development Programme,World Meteorological Organization and others 2011).3.87 The design of the seven ongoing projects often reflects lessons learned in priorprojects. There is continued emphasis on data-sharing, especially in Central Asia, wherethe project promotes systems integration among participating countries. In contrast tothe earlier projects, five of the ongoing projects were designed with specific users orbeneficiaries in mind.3.88 Attention to hydromet is increasing. The PPCR has decided to emphasizehydromet investments. It has identified $95 million in investments in 11 countryprograms.PROJECTS IN AFRICA, PAST AND PRESENT3.89 As noted, Sub-Saharan Africa deserves special attention because of the poor stateof its hydromet system and its high level of climate variability. Over 1990-2010, 24World Bank projects involving partial hydromet systems were approved; 12 are closedand evaluated. Hydromet expenditure totaled $52 million for the 15 African projectswhere funding information was available, against about $1.4 billion for the rest of theworld.3.90 The projects have has some successes in improving early warning systems, asnoted regarding Kenya. In the Senegal River Basin, a project expanded upstreammonitoring in Guinea and integrated this information into the Basin hydrologicalnetwork. Early warning projects in Burkina Faso and Cameroon continued to functionafter the projects closed. However, a project in Zambia failed to achieve coordination59
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYbetween the four institutions involved in early warnings, which continued to operate inisolation from one another.3.91 Maintenance continues to be a problem. Only four of the 12 closed Africanprojects reported attention to maintenance and only in the Senegal River Basin did theself-evaluation report consider sustainability to be likely.3.92 Automated systems would seem to be one solution 41 —but experience so far hasnot been encouraging. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned thatautomated equipment is not necessarily cheaper or more reliable than humanobservers. 42 Two recent experiences bear this out. The new project in Central Asia foundthat automated equipment from a prior project could not be maintained, due tooperating conditions, lack of staff capacity, and difficulty in getting spare parts.Consequently, the project invested more heavily in traditional manual instrumentation.Second, the World Bank helped finance the Weather Information for All Initiative,which proposed an innovative solution for Africa in partnership with private sectortelecommunications companies. They sought to add weather stations to cell phonetowers, solving power, connectivity, and security problems. However, the nonprofitcoordinating agency went bankrupt, and only 19 of the 5,000 planned stations had beenerected by 2011.3.93 Ultimately though, supply is not enough. Unlocking strong demand for weather,hydrological, and climate info is necessary in order to sustain the political will tomaintain hydromet services.Dealing with Climate Variability: Conclusions3.94 There is a large unfinished agenda in closing the adaptation gap: increasingpeople’s resilience to current levels of climate variability. Sustainable land and watermanagement and the expansion of efficient irrigation can fight poverty and improveagriculturalists’ resilience. So, too, can disaster risk management, including droughtmitigation and relief. These agendas overlap with what has been considered sustainabledevelopment.3.95 A key question is the extent to which these activities also promote adaptation tolong-term climate change. Agroclimatic zones are shifting, so techniques that areadaptive today may not be suitable 20 years hence. Population growth and migrationare exposing more people to climate risks, potentially counteracting progress in riskreduction. The next section assesses how consideration of long-term climate change canbe factored into decision making in policies and investment, and looks at nascentexperience in doing so.60
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Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
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ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
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CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
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AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
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GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
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GLOSSARYSustainable land management
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AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
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OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
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OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
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OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
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Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
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Page 54 and 55: 2. Climate Adaptation at the World
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Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
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Page 128 and 129: 5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
Page 130 and 131: CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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Page 139 and 140: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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Page 145 and 146: Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
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Page 151 and 152: Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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