Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYdisasters 26 in developing countries over the period 1970-2011. Over 2001-06, losses inhigh-income countries were less than 0.1 percent of GDP, losses in low-incomecountries were roughly 0.3 percent of GDP and losses in middle-income countries wereabout 1 percent of GDP (IPCC 2012). The most severely affected countries are smallisland developing states; 12 of the 25 countries with annual losses over 1970-2010exceeding 1 percent of GDP are small island developing states (United Nations andWorld Bank 2010). A review of the literature on the impact of natural disasters oneconomic growth (United Nations and World Bank 2010) finds a lack of consensus onthe impact of disasters, once other factors are accounted for. The review finds that, onaverage, moderate disasters have little impact, but that severe disasters lead to sizeablelosses of GDP. A median “severe” drought or flood reduced GDP by roughly 1 percent,with larger proportional losses in poorer countries.3.48 Disasters are much more likely to affect the most vulnerable members ofsocieties, particularly women and the poor. For example, the urban poor are morevulnerable to disasters because disaster-prone areas tend to have lower property prices,and so tend to be occupied by poor citizens (often in informal settlements). Poor areasoften have lower levels of protective infrastructure, and housing is of low quality and ismuch less likely to withstand a flood or cyclone. The poor are also likely to be less ableto cope with a given shock, as they have few assets and often little access to economic orsocial safety nets. Disasters often have more severe consequences for women, in termsof both mortality and economic impacts For example, cyclones in Bangladesh have hadmuch higher mortality rates for children under 10 and women over 40 (Bern and others1993). The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami may have killed many more women than men (inIndonesian villages surveyed by Oxfam, 77 percent of the deaths were of women(Oxfam 2005). Disasters reduce life expectancy among women more than among men,particularly from the most serious disasters and particularly among the poor(Neumayer and Plümper 2007). The gender gap in primary education widenssignificantly after major disaster events (UNISDR 2011).3.49 Many factors other than climate change contribute to disaster risk. Jakarta is acase in point. The city suffers from both chronic flooding every year and extreme floodsevery few years. The 2007 flood alone covered 25 percent of the city and causedfinancial losses of $900 million. Flooding has been blamed on deforestation in thenearby mountains, but the main causes lie closer to home. Wetlands and rice fields havebeen paved over, in defiance of zoning regulations. Drainage canals are blocked bygarbage, the result of an ineffective solid waste disposal system. And while the cityconfronts sea level rise of 60 centimeters or more over this century, unregulated andunsustainable groundwater extraction has already sunk coastal areas of the city by upto 4.5 meters over the past 50 years. Parts of the city could subside another 5 meters thiscentury if groundwater extraction is not brought under control, and will likely sink a47