Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONresearch organizations in developing countries face serious institutional and capacityconstraints. Sustained World Bank support through greater focus on national andregional-level research and development and systems for transferring knowledge tosmallholders would enhance the effectiveness and ability of developing countries tobenefit from scale economies in creation of public goods that help farmers adapt toclimate change.4.52 Underlying the development of new varieties is a need for conservation ofgenetic diversity in food crops and animals. Many staples and commercially importantcrops and animals lack genetic diversity, making them potentially widely susceptible toclimate-related stresses, such as emerging pests. For instance, there is very littlediversity in commercially cultivated arabica coffee A potentially important responsewould be to conserve the wild relatives of current crops, which may harbor genetictraits needed for an altered future (Guarino and Lobell 2011). This has been done inseed collections, but there is a strong argument for also conserving these resources insitu, that is, in the wild. This would allow them to coevolve with climatic and ecosystemconditions (Hunter and Heywood 2011).4.53 Although the Bank is a leader in investing in protected areas (with GEF support),it has only made five investments in in situ agrobiodiversity conservation. This is astriking contrast, given that it is much easier to argue that agrobiodiversity hasmonetizable benefits, as compared (for instance) to rainforests that are appreciated forthe rarity and uniqueness of their noncommercial species.Conclusions4.54 The Bank Group, like others, lacks guidance on how best to incorporate climatechange considerations into the design and appraisal of infrastructure projects, andcurrent practice is inconsistent. Staff have expressed interest in having guidance.4.55 The Bank has turned to global and regional climate change models to informdecision making on projects and programs. Those models have been useful forawareness raising and context setting, but have often proved less fit for purpose thanhoped. They are more suitable for indicating regional temperature-related climateimpacts than for quantifying smaller-area precipitation-related impacts. Analyses oflong-term climate adaptation options typically confront such a broad range of possiblefutures that they default to recommending robust, “low-regret” measures.4.56 There are, however, some areas that require anticipatory climate changeadaptation now, because long-run projections are sufficiently clear and becausedevelopment paths can lock-in to more or less resilient paths. Prominent among these is83
CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONthe desirability of shaping spatial development patterns to reduce exposure to sea levelrise and floods, improve coastal zone management, and make biodiversity moreresilient to climate change. However, there are severe political difficulties in regulatingland use. Examples are few, and successful examples fewer, but new approaches areemerging.4.57 There is a potentially important role for the Bank Group in supporting globalpublic goods for ACC. Development of new crop and animal varieties to meetanticipated future conditions (such as drought or inundation) is an important example,because they have a long lead time and can cut short the time to develop locallyappropriate varieties. The World Bank indirectly supports CGIAR research anddevelopment for this purpose. While the Bank has played a prominent role inprotecting global biodiversity in general, it has supported only a handful of projectsthat conserve wild agrobiodiversity, which could contain genetic material valuable forfuture adaptation challenges to agriculture.84
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Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
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ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
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CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
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AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
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GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
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GLOSSARYSustainable land management
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AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
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OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
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OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
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OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
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Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
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2. Climate Adaptation at the World
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CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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3. Dealing with Climate Variability
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Page 139 and 140: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
Page 145 and 146: Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
Page 147 and 148: APPENDIX B• Social Development St
Page 149 and 150: APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
Page 151 and 152: Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
Page 153 and 154: APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Page 157 and 158: Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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Page 161 and 162: APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
Page 163 and 164: APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Page 167 and 168: Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
Page 169 and 170: APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
Page 171 and 172: Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
Page 173 and 174: APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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