Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4. Shortcomings of Disaster StatisticsThe most comprehensive source for disaster data is the Center for Research on theEpidemiology of Disasters’ EM-DAT database, but it has incomplete coverage of developingcountries, particularly for droughts. Data on the economic impact of disasters is missing formany events, even for many of the most serious disasters. In the EM-DAT database for 1970-2009 damage estimates are missing for about 60 percent of all climate-related disasters, 72percent of droughts, and for 88 percent of droughts in Africa. It is not the case that missingvalues are mostly due to minor disasters. For the EM-DAT database’s 7,055 climate-relateddisasters over 1970-2009 that included an estimate for the number of people affected, there isalmost no relationship between the existence of a damage estimate and the number ofpeople affected by the disaster (correlation = 0.075). An estimate of drought damages didnot exist for any of the 16 droughts in Africa over 1970-2009 that affected more than 5million people.The data gaps weaken the credibility of disaster research and analysis that relies on EM-DAT. The lack of data means we should be wary about drawing conclusions from studiesthat report modest economic damages from drought relative to other disasters (UnitedNations and World Bank 2010) or modest costs from more severe droughts due to climatechange (Mendelsohn and Saher 2011).Source: IEG analysis.3.26 IEG identified 13 closed and evaluated drought relief and management projects.Most of these used emergency responses to drought as an entry point for efforts toreduce future drought sensitivity, including Vulnerability Assessment Committees aspart of early warning systems, and SLWM. 22 The outcome of 10 of the projects wasrated moderately satisfactory or better. Five out of seven were rated substantial inefficacy, and seven of eight were rated likely to be sustainable.3.27 The Bank has had long-term engagements in Ethiopia and Kenya that addressdrought and food security risks at the national scale through cross-sectoral coordinationand which have been subject to detailed assessments (see Appendix D).3.28 The Ethiopia PSNP is now in its third phase. The starting point had been areactive system, funded by emergency appeals to donors that used food transfers fordrought relief. The system transitioned to a multiyear prefinanced system that set asidecontingency funds for years of severe drought. Drought relief took the form ofpayments for labor on community-identified public works intended to build upresilience to future droughts. These include exclusion of livestock from upperwatersheds to promote regeneration of vegetation (Box 3-3). Additional funds wereprovided as direct support to especially vulnerable households.41