Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAnticipating climate change: What are the lessons from efforts explicitlyaimed at adaptation to climate change at the national and regional level?How should development practice change, now that the need for adaptationis better understood?In addition to this learning-focused agenda, the evaluation asks:World Bank Group performance: How has the Bank Group performedagainst climate adaptation goals incorporated in the “Strategic Framework forDevelopment and Climate Change” (SFDCC), which was presented to theDevelopment Committee in 2008?Scope and Structure of Evaluation1.17 Climate adaptation, because it comprises responses both to current and futureclimate patterns, touches many sectors and activities. Climate issues are pervasive inagriculture and water management. Moreover, just about anything that affectshousehold wealth, education, or employment could affect the way people react toclimate. So a challenge for this evaluation is to focus on issues where the potentialfor shaping the adaptation agenda is the greatest.1.18 The evaluation begins by reviewing explicit attention to climate adaptation atthe Bank Group. This includes a survey of the inclusion of climate adaptation issuesin Country Assistance Strategies or Partnership Strategies (CASs), an analysis ofhow climate risks are identified and adaptation benefits are tallied in projects, andin-depth case studies of the three longest-running national or regional climateadaptation projects.1.19 Chapter 3 then discusses lessons from projects and programs that grapplewith climate variability (even if not labeled as “adaptation” projects). It focuses ontwo sectoral and thematic areas most affected by climate variability: agriculture anddisaster risk management (DRM). (A third area, water management, cuts across bothof these – see Box 1-2) The chapter concludes with a discussion of investments inhydrometeorological (hydromet) systems, which are relevant to both agricultureand DRM.1.20 Chapter 4 looks at ACC. It starts with the generic issue of how to incorporateclimate change risks into the design and appraisal of investment projects. The issueis elucidated through an in-depth examination of recent Bank Group hydropowerprojects. Hydropower exemplifies these issues because it is a long-lived, climatesensitiveinvestment; is important to climate mitigation; has a long tradition of7
CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHsophisticated hydrological analysis; and was singled out as important in the SFDCC.The chapter continues with a survey of the thin, mostly analytic set of activities thatdirectly address anticipatory ACC. A final chapter synthesizes findings and makesrecommendations.Box 1-2. Where’s the Water in this Report?Water is central to climate change adaptation, and it is pervasive in this report. Water iscentral to the discussion of climate variability in agriculture, both irrigated and rainfed, andto drought relief (chapter 3). Because irrigation accounts for 86 percent of human waterconsumption (Doell, Hoffmann-Dobrev and others 2012)), water management in irrigationis on the front lines for dealing with climate shocks to water availability. Much of thediscussion of disaster risk management (chapter 3) relates to floods. Hydromet services(chapter 3) are concerned with monitoring water flows and precipitation. Chapter 4 focuseson hydrological issues in hydropower, and chapter 3 discusses water management at theriver basin level.Source: IEG1.21 These topics cover much of the evaluable adaptation efforts of the BankGroup, but they are not comprehensive of all possible adaptation issues or activities.For instance, there has been relatively little Bank Group effort devoted to the impactof long-term climate change on patterns of infectious disease (though see thediscussion of Colombia in chapter 2).EVALUATION APPROACH1.22 If climate change is a long-term, slow-acting threat, how can adaptationefforts be evaluated? It is useful to distinguish four kinds of adaptation efforts, withdifferent implications for evaluation:Adaptation to chronic climate variability: water stress, flooding, and droughtthat occur every few years or more often.Adaptation to extreme events: infrequent but severe droughts, floods, heatwaves, and storms, that occur every few decades or less oftenAdaptation to long-term, transformational change: such as ecosystem loss,changes in agroclimatic regime, and flooding of islands and coasts.Capacity building for adaptive institutions.1.23 Projects addressing chronic risks might hope to have observable effects withina few years of operation. For instance, an urban drainage project might successfullyeliminate annual floods; watershed management projects could boost crop yieldswithin a few years. So evaluation can approach this class of adaptation efforts with8
Page 1 and 2: Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
Page 4 and 5: ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
Page 6 and 7: CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
Page 8: AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
Page 11 and 12: GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
Page 13 and 14: GLOSSARYSustainable land management
Page 16: AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
Page 19 and 20: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 21 and 22: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 23 and 24: OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
Page 25 and 26: OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
Page 27 and 28: OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
Page 29 and 30: OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
Page 32 and 33: Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
Page 34 and 35: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
Page 36: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
Page 39 and 40: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 41 and 42: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 44 and 45: 1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
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Page 54 and 55: 2. Climate Adaptation at the World
Page 56 and 57: CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
Page 74 and 75: 3. Dealing with Climate Variability
Page 76 and 77: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
Page 80 and 81: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
Page 82 and 83: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
Page 84 and 85: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.80 Lo
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYonly ha
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4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONlev
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFor
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONBox
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONANA
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONfut
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Integration of Climate Change Consi
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONare
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONcha
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONres
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5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearPro
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
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Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
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APPENDIX B• Social Development St
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APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
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Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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