Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GROUPFigure 2.1. World Bank Projects Mentioning Climate Change Adaptation12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: IEG.Monitoring Adaptation Efforts and Results2.6 The SFDCC promised to develop an “outcome-based results framework” with ‘aset of definitions and outcomes’ in FY09 The document stated that “tracking progresswill allow both clients and the World Bank Group to learn more rapidly from whatworks and what does not and adjust actions accordingly.”(World Bank 2008b) Aframework was delivered in FY12, but the sections dealing with climate resilience arenot strongly outcome-oriented, instead leaning heavily on inputs: expenditure onprojects with “adaptation co-benefits.” This section discusses the pitfalls in using inputsto track results, reflects on the difficulties in measuring climate resilience results, andproposes some solutions.2.7 Finding comprehensive, sensitive, and practical indicators of adaptation (orresilience) outcomes and impacts remains a challenge. First, as noted in chapter 1, it isnot possible to measure effectiveness directly in preparing for long-term climate changeor infrequent extreme events. These measures must rely on intermediate outcomes—measures of improvements in information, capacity, and reductions in sensitivity andexposure. Second, adaptation is highly place-specific: the challenges facing Kiribati,Siberia, the Andes, and Kenya are very different. Yet without good indicators,investments in adaptation could be inefficient, pose unexamined tradeoffs against otherobjectives, or even be maladaptive for long-run climate change (Box 3-3).13