Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFor horizons of 30 years or less, uncertainty about the emissions scenario makeslittle difference.Figure 4.3. Precipitation Projections across Models, 2100Note: This shows a set of analyses by the Hadley Centre on the change in national level mean precipitation to 2100, under ahigh-emissions scenario. For Bangladesh, Brazil, India, and Indonesia the ranges are immense—on the order of 1.5meters/year—encompassing both wetter and drier possible futures for each country. This complicates adaptation planning.Planning would be difficult enough if one knew for sure that climate was going to be much wetter, or if it were certain to becomemuch drier. But based on current information, either outcome is possible. Bars give 25 th , 50 th (median), and 75 th percentiles;whiskers show maximum and minimum across models.Source: Met Office, Hadley Centre. “Climate: Observations, projections and impacts.” Downloaded fromhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/policy-relevant/obs-projections-impactsAPPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE MODELS AT THE WORLD BANK GROUP4.13 Precipitation uncertainty is reflected in a dataset assembled by the World Bank’sWater Anchor intended to inform development planning (Strzepek, McCluskey andothers 2011). The projections are distributed on the Bank’s web-based climate portal.The authors caution that the projections are not suitable for project-level work, becauseof their coarse scale. This dataset consists of projections of hydrological flows for 8,380river basins. For each basin, up to 22 GCMs and 3 emissions scenarios were used todrive a hydrological model of impacts on water flows. Figure 4.4 tabulates the rangesbetween highest and lowest flows across the 8,380 basins. For more than two-thirds ofthe basins, the range of projection is more than 50 percent of the historic average. Forabout a quarter of the basins, the range is more than 100 percent.67
CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFigure 4.4. Spread of Hydrological Predictions for River BasinsNote: Number of river basins with data = 8,380; 54 emission scenario/GCM combinations used for each basin: interscenario range= highest change—lowest change, expressed in percentages of historical baseline levelSource: IEG analysis of data described in (Strzepek, McCluskey and others 2011) and available at World Bank Climate Portal.4.14 IEG also reviewed 28 recent studies and project documents that used GCMs toaddress climate change, to determine how the models were used and how the analysesdealt with uncertainty in projections. (These were opportunistically chosen and may notbe comprehensive of all such projects, programs, and studies. A comprehensive surveyof recent hydropower projects is discussed in chapter 4.) The analysis cross-classifiedthe type of climate scenario modeling against how the climate models were used todiscriminate among options.68
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Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
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ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
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CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
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AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
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GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
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GLOSSARYSustainable land management
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AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
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OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
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OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
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OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
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Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
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2. Climate Adaptation at the World
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CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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Page 139 and 140: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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Page 151 and 152: Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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