Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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OVERVIEWwhich aims to integrate resilience intodevelopment activities.Although the Bank Group made progress atthe country level, it has not yet put in place anoperational system that would identify andmitigate climate risks at the project level.Climate risk screening in both institutions isad hoc. At the International FinanceCorporation (IFC), considerations such as sealevel rise and water regime changes were notconsidered if they did not fall within IFC’sinvestment time horizon, which is 15 years orless for 91 percent of loans. However, IFChas recently mandated life-cycle climate riskscreening as part of its revised performancestandards.The Bank Group’s new results frameworksfor resilience provide inadequate guidance for,or tracking of, improvements in climateadaptation. The results frameworks emphasizeinputs rather than outcomes and impacts.Responding to an IDA mandate, World Bankhas developed a system for trackingexpenditures on activities with presumedadaptation co-benefits. (A similar system isunder development at IFC). While potentiallyuseful for tracking attention to climate, it isimportant not to misinterpret “total spendingon adaptation-related projects” as a measureof adaptation effort. For that purpose it isunsatisfactory because it highlightsexpenditure rather than results; mixesincommensurable expenditures (policy loans,investment loans, and technical assistance)that are not proportional to effort; fails toassess where there are tradeoffs, and wherethere are complementarities, with povertyreduction; and ignores the likely adaptiveimpact of rural roads, female education, urbanemployment, and other interventions that atfirst glance seem extraneous to climate.Lessons from National Adaptation ProjectsProjects in Colombia, Kiribati, and theCaribbean—the most mature of a set ofnational adaptation efforts—have succeededin building up national or regional capacity foranalysis and planning, in two cases over morethan a decade. All were hampered at first byspreading resources and capacity too thinlyacross multiple topics and locations. Theydiscovered that planning and execution needto occur in tandem to maintain political andpopular support. Kiribati’s experiencesuggests that it is desirable to place a strongcentral agency in charge of adaptationcoordination.These countries all face serious long-termclimate risks: sea level rise and salinization ofwater supply, loss of high-altitude wetlands,and the spread of malaria to new regions. Yetall have focused mostly on here-and-nowclimate problems: today’s watercontamination, storm threats, and malariainfections. These choices reflect a legitimateperception of a large current adaptationdeficit, and motivate attention to past effortsto deal with climate variability.Lessons from Addressing Climate VariabilityIn agriculture, attention focuses on rainfedareas, especially in the drylands, which face thehighest climate variability and have highpoverty rates. Here, World Bank support forwatershed management and sustainable landand water management has had some successin boosting agricultural yields and incomes,which is presumed to make households moreresilient to climate shocks. However, there islittle or no project-based evidence of directbiophysical impacts on agricultural resilience.Sequences of drought management projects inKenya and Ethiopia have succeeded increating functioning institutions for droughtmitigation and relief. In Ethiopia, theProductive Safety Net Project has reduced theduration of food insecurity by 0.9 months fordrought-affected households and 1.5 monthsxxi
OVERVIEWfor others. Another approach to riskmanagement, index-based insurance, seeks toreduce the cost of insuring against droughtsand is of particular relevance to pastoralistsand rainfed farming. However, small-scaleexperiments have mostly not yet led to scaleup.Exceptions include a highly subsidizedscheme in India and a Mongolian livestockscheme.Expansion of irrigation is a potentiallyimportant avenue of adaptation, via expansioninto rainfed areas, and through provision ofincreased storage where rainfall is becomingmore variable. A prime concern is boostingthe efficiency and sustainability of irrigation,which accounts for 86 percent of humanwater consumption. Competition for waterwill intensify as demand increases and climatechange disrupts supply. IEG evaluations havehighlighted the difficulties, and limitedsuccess, in setting up institutions for efficientand equitable water allocation and forsustainable finance of water systems.However, recent and ongoing projects inChina are demonstrating important technicaland institutional innovations in tracking andregulating actual water consumption, marriedto incentives to increase water productivity.The Bank has innovated in financial productsfor risk management. Catastrophe DeferredDrawdown Options (Cat DDOs)—in effect,lines of credit for emergencies—have beenwell received among International Bank forReconstruction and Development (IBRD)clients but are not available to IDA countries,and not appropriate for all borrowers.Financial risk management products, such asthe Caribbean Catastrophic Risk InsuranceFacility and Malawi weather derivatives—together with financing arrangements forEthiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program—show how to improve disaster relief financing.However, existing public programs andprivate markets (including catastrophe bonds)are unable to offer coverage for more than asmall fraction of total damages from floodsand storms. This leaves a major gap in climateresilience risk management at the internationallevel.Sustainability is a key cross-cutting concern ifACV-type projects are to make lastingcontributions to ACC. Projects initiated aspart of an emergency response effort riskdesign flaws due to rushed preparation.Physical works including irrigation have faileddue to lack of maintenance, especially whenfunding is not maintained. “Soft”infrastructure, such as mangroves for coastaldefense, are vulnerable to natural or humandestruction, particularly when incentives formaintenance are missing, as shown bydivergent outcomes of two mangroveplantation projects in Bangladesh.Hydrometeorological (hydromet) systems—used to record and analyze data on hydrologyand meteorology, such as river flows,precipitation, and temperature—are oftenfinancially precarious and unable to maintainequipment, as evidenced by silent orintermittent stations. Institutionaleffectiveness falters when funding is cut back,as occurred with Kenya’s drought reliefprogram.Avoiding maladaptation is another challenge.For example, widespread planting of treespoorly suited to local conditions has reducederosion and boosted carbon storage in China’sLoess Plateau, but has reduced groundwaterrecharge in water-scarce regions.Anticipatory Adaptation to Climate ChangeIn grappling with long-term climate change, itis natural to turn to climate modeling forguidance, and the Bank Group has done so,often innovatively. It has also supportedtraining and capacity building in the use of themodels. The models, which are essential forelucidating the global climate system, havebeen informative in some applications relatedto agriculture or water development over largeregions. But for many planning and designxxii
Page 1 and 2: Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
Page 4 and 5: ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
Page 6 and 7: CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
Page 8: AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
Page 11 and 12: GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
Page 13 and 14: GLOSSARYSustainable land management
Page 16: AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
Page 19 and 20: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 21 and 22: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 23: OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
Page 27 and 28: OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
Page 29 and 30: OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
Page 32 and 33: Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
Page 34 and 35: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
Page 36: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
Page 39 and 40: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 41 and 42: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 44 and 45: 1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
Page 54 and 55: 2. Climate Adaptation at the World
Page 56 and 57: CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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3. Dealing with Climate Variability
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.34 An
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYto incr
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYdisaste
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYTHE BAN
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.59 Li
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfund di
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfrom se
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.80 Lo
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYonly ha
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4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONlev
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFor
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONBox
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONANA
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONfut
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Integration of Climate Change Consi
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONare
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONcha
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONres
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5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearPro
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
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Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
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APPENDIX B• Social Development St
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APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
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Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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