Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GROUPfor the Ethiopia Productive Safety Net project are a working example. Suitable dataare also being gathered with the assistance of the Bank’s Development ResearchGroup in seven African countries, using innovative computer-assisted interviewingtechniques to boost speed and accuracy. (The costs of household surveys willdecrease as mobile phone–based survey techniques are improved and deployed.)These data need to be complemented by climate information, such as precipitationand soil moisture that is available from remote sensing. Existing early warningsystems, such as FEWS NET (Famine Early Warning Systems Network), alreadyuse such data and relate it to vulnerability.Measures of institutional capacity. A well-functioning hydromet system is essentialfor both ACV and ACC. The number and proportion of reporting stations is a basic,readily available indicator of institutional capacity, although there are additionaldimensions of performance, such as service provision. Likewise, agriculturalresearch and extension is essential not just for addressing today’s climate variabilitybut also in rapidly responding to future challenges, foreseen and unforeseen. Ashift toward the use of information and communications technology (ICT) inextension points the way to effective monitoring. For instance, digitalgreen.org, anextension system in India, provides real-time measures of effectiveness. Disasterrisk management systems are another pillar of robust ACV whose institutionalcapabilities should be tracked. So, too, should be the existence and capabilities ofriver basin authorities.Measures of water use and depletion. Water issues are central both to ACV and ACC.Of particular concern is unsustainable consumptive water use. In California,northern India, Mexico, and Yemen, drawdown of aquifers means that theconsequences of future droughts will be severe. However, it is becomingincreasingly feasible to track water use and depletion using a combination ofremote sensing and ground measurements (Rodell, Velicogna and others 2009).World Bank–sponsored projects in China have pioneered in the measurement ofagricultural water consumption at a fine scale. Satellite-based measures of gravitycan be used to track changes in water storage at the water basin level and are nowbeing applied in ongoing World Bank hydrological studies of Central Asia.Measures of exposure to or resilience to long-term climate change. Measures here couldfocus on more anticipatable aspects of long-term change. These could include theproportion of population exposed to a one-meter rise in sea level, and theproportion of protected areas with a specified degree of altitudinal or latitudinalconnectivity.17
CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GROUP2.13 These are not definitive measures; understanding of climate change adaptation willimprove over time. But measures such as these, closely tied to climate and climateimpacts, will accelerate the learning process.Climate Risk Identification for Projects2.14 The SFDCC committed the Bank Group to “screen climate-sensitive investmentswith long life spans, starting with hydropower projects and selected water and agricultureprojects.” This goal was not accomplished. Following is an account of how the existingrisk identification systems deal with climate variability and change.CLIMATE RISK IDENTIFICATION AT THE WORLD BANK2.15 In FY11, the World Bank put in place a new comprehensive system (theOperational Risk Assessment Framework, or ORAF) for rating project risks through theentire project cycle. Risks are categorized as stakeholder level, operating environment,implementing agency level, or project level. Project-level risks are further subdivided intodesign risk, safeguard risk, program and donor risk, delivery quality, and other riskcategories. Climate risks do not fit neatly into this system, and are not treated consistently.Sometimes they are characterized as country risks and sometimes as design risks.2.16 Based on ORAF data, Table 2.1 distinguishes projects in more versus less climatesensitivesectors, and tallies the number of projects in each group that identified climaterisks 9 or mentions them in the project document. As expected, attention to climate wasmuch greater in the climate-sensitive sectors. A majority of these projects discussedclimate, but only a quarter actually identified climate as a risk. There is no presumption, orcourse, that climate risks should be identified in all projects.2.17 Of 23 projects that identified climate risks, only one identified a long-term risk dueto climate change. This was the Bangladesh Padma Bridge project, in which an expensiveasset was constructed that is expected to stand a century or more. Another 16 identifiedclimate variability as a project-level risk, and six mentioned it as a country-levelbackground risk.Table 2.1. Climate Risk Identification in FY11 World Bank ProjectsMore climatesensitivesectorLess climatesensitivesectorTotal number of FY 11 projects with ORAF documents 78 101 179Climate risks in ORAF 19 4 23Climate reference in the project document, no climate risks 40 31 71No reference to climate in document 19 66 85Source: IEGTotal18
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Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
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ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
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CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
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AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
Page 11 and 12: GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
Page 13 and 14: GLOSSARYSustainable land management
Page 16: AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
Page 19 and 20: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 21 and 22: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 23 and 24: OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
Page 25 and 26: OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
Page 27 and 28: OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
Page 29 and 30: OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
Page 32 and 33: Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
Page 34 and 35: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
Page 36: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
Page 39 and 40: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 41 and 42: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 44 and 45: 1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
Page 54 and 55: 2. Climate Adaptation at the World
Page 56 and 57: CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
Page 74 and 75: 3. Dealing with Climate Variability
Page 76 and 77: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
Page 80 and 81: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
Page 82 and 83: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
Page 84 and 85: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
Page 86 and 87: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.34 An
Page 88 and 89: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYto incr
Page 90 and 91: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYdisaste
Page 92 and 93: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYTHE BAN
Page 94 and 95: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.59 Li
Page 96 and 97: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfund di
Page 98 and 99: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfrom se
Page 100 and 101: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.80 Lo
Page 102 and 103: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYonly ha
Page 104 and 105: 4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
Page 106 and 107: CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONlev
Page 108 and 109: CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFor
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONBox
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONANA
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONfut
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Integration of Climate Change Consi
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONare
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONcha
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONres
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5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearPro
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
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Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
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APPENDIX B• Social Development St
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APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
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Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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