Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GROUPImpact on Capacity and Information2.42 The capacity building portions of the project were successful. IDEAM trainedand retained skilled staff. The weather stations were upgraded, and the accuracy ofmedium range weather forecasts improved. This is crucial for Colombia, which recentlyexperienced devastating floods.2.43 Downscaled, long-run (GCM-based) climate model outputs were not founduseful for specific adaptation decisions. These outputs were not used by projectactivities in locations for which the models were specifically downscaled. However,model outputs were used for context-setting in discussions of climate adaptation and ina national communication to the UNFCCC. Creation and use of the projections helpedto integrate Colombian scientists and decision-makers into international networks ofclimate experts.2.44 Most other investments in models, studies, and data had mixed results.Modeling of the aquifer in water-scarce San Andres Island was well-executed andprovided relevant insight into long-term climate impacts, including sea level rise.Experiments carried out on the light and temperature sensitivity and connectivityeffects of marine coral helped develop management techniques to adapt to temperaturestress. But research studies on carbon and water cycling in high mountain ecosystemshad no policy relevance. In the insular component, small-scale studies of farming,agriculture, population, and beach erosion lacked clear orientation toward climatechange, and did not produce documentation of results necessary for learning lessons.The mountain component failed to carry out two planned agricultural studies—acase/control analysis of farm system impacts on income variability, and ademonstration of the financial viability of an agroforestry system. Overall, the projectmissed opportunities for learning—something that should be essential for a pilotproject.Impact on Implementation of Adaptation Actions2.45 Activities in the mountain component were not strongly linked to the logic oflong-term climate adaptation. Most of Bogota’s critical upper watershed is protected bya national park and is not under severe pressure. 19 Moreover, it is not clear that thepáramos will survive climate change, even if protected from conversion. In fact, thecomponent worked exclusively with farmers in sub-páramo (lower elevation) areas topromote living fences, spring protection, and small-scale productive projects that mightcontribute to the resilience of these areas. It also generated detailed agro-ecologicalzoning maps (EETA) of the Chingaza watershed and worked with the municipalities toencourage the insertion of agro-ecological zoning criteria into municipal land use plans.The EETA was not linked to downscaled models of climate change impact. Progress in26