Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a GFDRR work product – “Strengthening Weather and ClimateInformation Decision-support Systems (WCIDS) The World Bank Portfolio 1996 to 2011” --that is in preparation. The GFDRR WCIDS team kindly shared its early draft with IEG insupport of our review.40 Information based on ICRs for Poland (P053796), Mexico (P007713), Peru(P054667),Dominican Republic41 There has been increasing use of satellite-based remote-sensing measurements. WorldBank studies have used TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data, which is freelyavailable and covers areas that are sparsely gauged. However, remote sensing can neverfully substitute for surface-based measurements.42 “The transition to AWS is often instigated by a perception that these systems are cheaperto operate and easier to manage than human observers. The ETAWS cautioned that this wasnot the experience of a number of member countries. Therefore, it identified a number ofresponsibilities and costs that may not be immediately apparent to those that adoptautomatic systems.” WMO. 2009. Implementation and use of Automatic Weather Stations(AWSs) (Submitted by the WMO Secretariat). AOPCXV Doc. 6.2a43 While some climate change studies attempt to describe the probability distribution offuture outcomes, they typically do this by combining a large number of different climatemodels and/or parameter realizations and then implicitly assuming that each inputpossibility is equally likely. This generates a distribution across future climate states, butthis is not a true probability distribution.44 See Ullsfjord et al, who find that a Norwegian hydropower plant should enlarge itscapacity to take advantage of enhanced snowmelt over coming decades.45 A study of Asian Megacities (World Bank 2010) noted that “vulnerability mapping, landuse planning and zoning could be used to restrict future development in hazardouslocations, ultimately retiring key infrastructure and vulnerable buildings in these areas,”and support “zoning controls to ensure that low income housing is located outside of floodprone zones” for Ho Chi Minh City. It also identified “Retreat” as one of four possibleadaptive options, noting “planning option[s] to reduce exposure can be applied in urban areasthrough urban land use plans and zoning codes.”A study of North African coastal cities (World Bank 2010) calls for an integrated approachfor detailed land use planning and urban design for Casablanca, factoring in climate-relatedvulnerabilities in considering use for vacant land. It notes that floodprone areas should becarefully screened to avoid worsening inundation and drainage problems. It notes that“climate-resilient urban planning will be crucial for Tunis to manage the risks caused bynatural hazards and climate change,” recommending upgrading of drainage, containment ofillegal housing and careful zoning with green spaces.46 An IEG search for projects supporting large scale spatial planning or land-use zoning fordisaster risk reduction found only one example, the India Coastal Zone ManagementProject. Land use zoning projects were identified via text search of documents, polling ofknowledgeable urban and land management staff, and review of a Bank-identified portfolioof active and pipeline land use planning and zoning projects over 2003-9 (World Bank 2009,147