Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.81 Efforts to improve hydromet services offer potentially high economic returns.GFDRR (Subbiah, L. Bildan and others 2008) estimates returns of 165 percent to 568percent for early warning systems and seasonal forecasts. World Bank estimates of fiveyearbenefit:cost ratios for hydromet investments in South Eastern Europe ranging from1:1 for Montenegro to between 7:1 and 11:1 for Serbia(UN International Strategy forDisaster Reduction Secretariat - Europe, World Bank and others 2008). A study ofRussia (World Bank 2005) estimated benefit:cost ratios of 4.5:1 to 10:1 for hydrometmodernization, motivating a large Bank loan. Economic rates of return for hydrometinvestment projects in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic were estimated at 23.6percent and 53.4 percent, respectively (GFDRR 2010). These estimates are intuitivelyappealing, but sometimes flawed (see Annex F2). Better economic analysis would behelpful to screen and motivate investments in low-income countries. Analysis is needalso of the returns to “data rescue.” This involves digitizing handwritten archives ofhydromet observations—a low-cost activity that could, for instance, boost the reliabilityof hydropower or irrigation project appraisal, and improve the calibration of climatemodels.WORLD BANK EXPERIENCE3.82 Over 1985-2011, the World Bank has financed 132 projects that supportedhydromet improvements. 39 Twelve projects provided comprehensive support fornational-level hydromet systems at a cost of $380 million. About nine-tenths of projectfunding went to 8 IBRD countries (Albania, Brazil, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru,Poland, Russia, and Turkey), while the remainder went to 4 IDA countries/regions(Afghanistan, Central Asia, Moldova, and Sri Lanka). An additional 120 projects(including 18 in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5 in the Middle East and North Africa)supported partial systems or specific needs, at a cost of at least $917million.NATIONAL-LEVEL PROJECTS3.83 Five national hydromet systems (NHMS) projects have been completed andevaluated. 40 These were all in disaster-prone middle-income countries, and four of theprojects immediately followed national climate disasters. Consequently, the projects allaimed at improving early warning systems while also upgrading their hydrometmonitoring systems.3.84 All five countries were able to upgrade their systems, and prospects forsustainability looked good in most. IEG’s 2005 evaluation of the Turkey project foundforecasting achievements to be sustainable, and a 2011 assessment (United NationsDevelopment Programme, World Meteorological Organization and others 2011)suggests that the additional equipment funded under the Bank loan (363 stations) is stillin use eight years after the project closed. The same assessment states, however, that58