Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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OverviewAdapting to Climate ChangeHighlightsAdaptation to climate variability—such as floods, storms, and droughts—is an old and unfinished agenda. It overlapspartially with a newer agenda, adaptation to climate change. Climate change involves both intensification of existingclimate variability and the emergence of wholly new challenges, such as sea level rise. This evaluation draws lessonsfrom World Bank Group experience with both forms of adaptation.The Bank Group’s “Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change (FY09-11),” ushered in a substantialincrease in attention to climate adaptation in country and regional strategies, in analytic work, and in funding forintegrated national-level investment plans. Three pioneering projects, initiated before the Strategic Framework,provide lessons for this new batch of efforts: the importance of focusing, initially, on a few critical issues; of combiningaction with planning; and of placing responsibility for climate change coordination with a powerful agency. Theseprojects, along with most country strategies, focus strongly on adaptation to climate variability even where severelong-term climate change impacts loom.Climate variability and poverty are acute in areas of rainfed agriculture. Some evidence suggests that sustainable landand watershed management projects have boosted incomes in such areas. Resilience benefits are presumed, butmust be verified, as there are examples of maladaptive impacts—as when inappropriate afforestation depletesgroundwater. There has been some success with drought mitigation and relief projects, but weather index insurancefor households has not yet fulfilled hopes that it could be a major risk management tool. In irrigated areas, newtechniques for monitoring actual water consumption may provide a tool for institutions to manage water—critical, sinceirrigation accounts for 86 percent of human water use, and water stress will increase.The Bank has innovated in financial products for disaster risk management, meeting clients’ need for emergencyliquidity through stand-by loans and insurance pools. But financial products are not available anywhere to more fullymanage risks of catastrophic losses. In recent years, the Bank has shifted emphasis from disaster relief towarddisaster risk reduction. These investments have often succeeded, but face problems of financial and physicalsustainability. The Bank has also supported the development of hydrometeorological systems, more extensively andsuccessfully in middle-income countries than in Sub-Saharan Africa where systems often function poorly.Long-lived, inflexible infrastructure projects are often subject to climate risk, but the Bank Group lacks procedures foridentifying and mitigating these risks. Climate models have proved less useful than hoped for in identifying adaptationoptions, suggesting the need for more attention to decision making under extreme uncertainty.Anticipatory adaptation efforts—pay now to avoid damages later—are inherently less appealing to individuals and tocountries because of the uncertainty surrounding benefits, and because urgent current needs trump future ones. Landuse planning stands out as potentially important for reducing future exposure to extreme weather and for assisting inbiodiversity conservation. But successful examples are few.The Bank Group lacks a comprehensive, outcome-oriented results framework for guiding and tracking its adaptationefforts. A new system to tally projects with presumed adaptation benefits risks inefficiently emphasizing expenditure atthe expense of outcomes.The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) recommends revamping the results framework to better track resilienceoutcomes and promote learning; developing operational guidelines on screening projects for climate risk; investingmore in hydrometeorological systems and promoting their use, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa; and devoting moreattention to learning how to promote resilient land uses.xix
OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprises two relatedchallenges: adaptation to current climatevariability (ACV) and to future climatechange (ACC). Many places are not fullyadapted even to current levels of storms,floods, and droughts, which alreadyincorporate past climate change. Closing thisadaptation deficit involves actions such asbuilding reservoirs and seawalls, and settingup early warning systems. ACC confrontsboth an intensification of existing climatevariability, and wholly new, transformationalphenomena such as sea level rise and glacialloss. ACC can be incremental (“adapt-as-yougo”)or anticipatory—as when decisions needto be cast in concrete today based onexpected changes over coming decades.ACV overlaps with ACC, but not perfectly, asshown in Table 1. “No-regret” ACV providescurrent benefits while also reducingvulnerability to future changes. MaladaptiveACV, such as unsustainable drawdown ofaquifers, helps today but undermines futureresilience.The World Bank Group has extensiveexperience with efforts to address climatevariability, though those efforts have nottypically been labeled “adaptation.” Newefforts explicitly designated as climateadaptation are largely framed as ACV. TheBank Group and its partners are justbeginning to work out when and how to bearcosts today to insure against looming futurerisks.This evaluation seeks to learn from theseexperiences by answering questions in threeareas: Dealing with climate variability: Whatcan be learned from past and ongoingefforts to deal with adverse climate,climate variability, and climate extremes?The inquiry centers on disaster riskmanagement, agriculture, andhydrometeorological services. Factoring climate change risks intoinvestment projects: Under whatcircumstances is it most important toincorporate climate change risks into thedesign and appraisal of long-livedinvestment projects? To what extent, andhow, is this being done? Anticipating climate change: What arethe lessons from efforts explicitly aimedat adaptation to climate change at thenational and regional levels? What isdifferent about development now thatthe need for adaptation is betterunderstood?Table 1. Typology of Adaptation ActionsNet costs later Net benefits laterNet costsnowNet benefitsnowExtrememaladaptationMaladaptationAnticipatory ACC&“climate-proofing”long-livedinfrastructure“No-regret” ACV &Incremental ACCIn addition to this learning-focused agenda,the evaluation asks: How has the Bank Group performedagainst climate adaptation goalsincorporated in the SFDCC, which waspresented to the DevelopmentCommittee in 2008?Adaptation at the World Bank GroupThe SFDCC ushered in a striking increase inthe profile of climate adaptation at the BankGroup over the FY09–11 period. Of 56Country Assistance or Partnership Strategiesapproved during this period, 21 had asignificant focus on adaptation and 12 had amodest focus; in most cases this was anadvance over previous strategies. The BankGroup undertook a number of high-profileanalytic activities and helped mobilize fundsfor the Pilot Program on Climate Resilience,xx
Page 1 and 2: Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
Page 4 and 5: ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
Page 6 and 7: CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
Page 8: AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
Page 11 and 12: GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
Page 13 and 14: GLOSSARYSustainable land management
Page 16: AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
Page 19 and 20: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 21: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 25 and 26: OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
Page 27 and 28: OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
Page 29 and 30: OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
Page 32 and 33: Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
Page 34 and 35: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
Page 36: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
Page 39 and 40: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 41 and 42: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 44 and 45: 1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
Page 54 and 55: 2. Climate Adaptation at the World
Page 56 and 57: CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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3. Dealing with Climate Variability
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.34 An
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYto incr
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYdisaste
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYTHE BAN
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.59 Li
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfund di
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfrom se
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.80 Lo
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYonly ha
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4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONlev
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFor
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONBox
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONANA
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONfut
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Integration of Climate Change Consi
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONare
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONcha
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONres
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5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearPro
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
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Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
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APPENDIX B• Social Development St
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APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
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Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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