Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTable 4.2. Information Needs for Anticipatory Adaptation DecisionsCaseSample climaterelatedquestionsInformationrequiredTimescaleOther relevantinformation1. Road network,EthiopiaWhat are thepotential climateimpacts on roadassets andtransport services,with associatedcosts foradaptation?Annual number ofdays with heatwaves and 10-yearhigh rainfall eventfor road design10-50 years Traffic volume andoverloading;maintenanceregime2. Trung SonHydro Project,VietnamWhat are theexpected economicreturns undervarious scenariosfor future hydrologyand powergeneration?Exceedanceprobabilities of dryseason rainfall andlow flows10-40 years Capital costs ofalternative options,fuel prices, avoidedgreenhouse gasemissions3. Rainfed andirrigatedagriculture, YemenWhat is thevulnerability ofagriculture andrural livelihoods toclimate variabilityand change?Annual rainfall,reservoir inflow,evaporation andgroundwaterrecharge10-80 years Agricultural waterdemand; watergovernance4. Hydropowerplants, AlbaniaWhat steps can betaken to improveenergy securityand dam safetyunder extremeweather?Probable maximumflood or 10,000year flood for damspillway100 years Land userestrictions5. Urban drainagein Kolkata, IndiaWhat are therelative benefits ofde-silting,upgrading, orbuilding newsewers?Exceedanceprobabilities forrainfall and floodsof variousmagnitudes10-50 years Land subsidenceand expansion ofimpermeablesurfaces6. Padma Bridge,BangladeshHow deep and highto make the piers?Sea level andscouring intensityby 100 year flood100 years Likelihood ofearthquakesSource: IEG.4.11 Hawkins and Sutton (2009) (2011) provide some guidance on the degree ofclimate model uncertainty. They predict global and regional temperature andprecipitation, on a seasonal basis, using 15 different climate models and 3 differentscenarios for future emissions, giving a range of possible outcomes. The variationamong outcomes is partitioned between “internal” (natural or intrinsic) climate65
CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONvariability, uncertainty about the climate model, and uncertainty about the emissionsscenario. Hawkins and Sutton report on the proportion of total uncertainty that isaccounted for by internal climate variability, and on the size of uncertainty (“noise”)relative to the mean prediction of climate change (“signal”). Figure 4.2 (left panel)shows, for example, the ”signal:noise” ratio for December-February precipitationchange 20 years from now. For areas shown in white, light blue, or light orange, theaverage projected change is swamped by uncertainty. The right panel shows that in theEastern Hemisphere, most of this uncertainty is due to internal climate variability. Thissuggests that for projects dependent on winter precipitation, with a time horizon of lessthan 20 years, it might be more important to attend to climate variability than to climatechange.Figure 4.2. Map of Uncertainty in December-February Precipitation Projections at a 20-Year HorizonNote: Left panel: ratio of mean to standard deviation of precipitation (negative numbers indicate projected decline in meanprecipitation)Right panel: proportion of uncertainty accounted for by internal climate variability (as opposed to model or emissions uncertainty)Source: © Hawkins and Sutton. Climate Dynamics 2011.4.12 Key findings from Hawkins and Sutton are as follows:Temperature projections are relatively reliable; uncertainty is small relative to thetrend.Precipitation projections are much less reliable at all time and geographicalscales. Typically it is not possible to determine whether mean precipitation isincreasing or decreasing, and both outcomes are possible (Figure 4.3).For time horizons of 30 years or less, internal climate variability is the mainsource of uncertainty about precipitation.Relative uncertainty is higher for smaller geographic areas, and for seasonalversus annual means. By extension, uncertainty becomes very high forprojections about extreme events in particular places.66
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Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
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ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
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CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
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AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
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GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
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GLOSSARYSustainable land management
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AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
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OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
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OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
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OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
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Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
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MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
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1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
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CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
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2. Climate Adaptation at the World
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CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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Page 128 and 129: 5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
Page 130 and 131: CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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Page 139 and 140: APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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Page 145 and 146: Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
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Page 151 and 152: Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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Page 157 and 158: Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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