Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GROUPinducing farmers and communities to restore landscapes was weak, calling intoquestion the potential to scale up this activity. However, the project was successful inbuilding social capital in the supported watershed.2.46 The island activities included establishing and marking marine protected areasand creating protection and vigilance plans. The plans appear well designed.Implementation was taken up by a subsequent project.2.47 The health component was oriented toward predicting season-ahead diseaseincidence to guide current control activities. Research under the component found thatdengue prevalence is much more strongly linked to water management than to climate.The attempt to develop a model for dengue was abandoned and focused instead onproviding more reliable water supply and reducing the need to store water. The malariamodel is still under development. No concrete action was taken to promote institutionalchange in the municipalities. The program did not become operational, although workcontinues to further develop the malaria model, and the project succeeded in buildinglinks between the health agency and IDEAM. An unrealistic goal of reducing diseaseincidence was not addressed.2.48 While initially oriented to addressing long-term climate change, the projectended up focusing on activities related to climate variability. Colombia is highlyvulnerable to current climate conditions, and activities such as early warning systems,malaria control, and improved water supplies on islands have benefits under bothcurrent and future climates. Boosting institutional capacities to address currentchallenges will help prepare Colombia for the future. In the area of health, for instance,the recent increase in malaria and dengue prevalence has been attributed to climatechange but may be more related to the aftermath of health system decentralization. Animproved health system will be better able to confront the challenge of climate-drivenspread of malaria into previously untouched regions.KIRIBATI2.49 Remote Kiribati exemplifies climate change concerns. Sea level rise poses anexistential threat to the country. By 2070, storm surges of up to a meter could imperilthese low-lying atolls, but before that the rising sea will inexorably salinize thecountry’s thin lenses of groundwater. Meanwhile, Kiribati faces severe immediatedevelopment challenges. Half the population lives on 32 low atolls, scattered across 3.5million square kilometers of ocean, with difficult access to services and economicopportunities. The other half is crowded onto South Tarawa, a small stretch of islets.There, population growth, a trouble-plagued water distribution system further stressedby chronic droughts, and poor sanitation imperil water quality and quantity,contributing to high infant and child mortality from diarrhea and dysentery.27