Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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3. Dealing with Climate VariabilityHighlights Improved monitoring of water consumption may help improve irrigation efficiency, boosting currentand long-term resilience of water resource management. Some evidence suggests that sustainable land and water management can boost livelihoodoutcomes. Household-level agricultural index insurance has had limited uptake except where heavilysubsidized. Large-scale drought relief and mitigation projects have built institutions and in some cases yieldedmeasureable reductions in drought vulnerability. Bank-supported financial innovations have helped countries deal with immediate post-disasterliquidity needs. ACV projects need to be monitored for sustainability and to ensure against unintended maladaptiveimpacts.3.1 People have long dealt with climate variability (Figure 3.1) but in many cases arefar from being optimally adapted to it. The World Bank Group has invested in projectsthat try to close this gap. Although not designated as adaptation projects, they have anestablished record that offers lessons for today’s climate agenda. This chapter looks attwo areas that encompass much of this newly relevant experience: agriculture(including drought management) and disaster risk management. It concludes with anassessment of efforts to boost hydromet services, which are important underpinningsfor both areas.Agriculture and Droughts3.2 Climate variability challenges the livelihoods of the 3 billion rural people in thedeveloping world. Sensitivities to current conditions differ by agroclimatic zone andagricultural systems. Rainfed agriculture is sensitive to climate variability—too little ortoo much rainfall, heat waves, and frosts. This is especially true in the drylands, hometo 2 billion people, many of them poor, and many dependent on agriculture. Hererainfall is sparsest, rainfall variability is highest, and drought incidence is high. Climatechange is very likely to exacerbate variability in rainfall. Irrigated agriculture—especially large-scale irrigation—is an adaptation response to low or variable rainfall.31
CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBut it already represents 86 percent of human consumption of water, competing inmany places with urban consumption and environmental flows. This competition willget worse as water demand increases and, in many places, will be further stressed byclimate change.Figure 3.1. The Nilometer: Tracking Five Millennia of Hydrological VariabilitySource: Hassan (1981); Eltahir and Wang (1999) Photo: K. ChomitzNote: The column in the picture above is a river gauge: the Nilometer at Roda Island, Cairo, installed in AD 715 and incontinuous use until rendered obsolete by the operation of the Aswan dam. Because of the criticality of the Nile floods to farming,nilometers were in use for five millennia, and nearly continuous written records date to the seventh century. An excerpt of therecord (lower panel) shows decades-long irregular cycles. Historical data have been shown to be strongly correlated with globalclimate patterns.32
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Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
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ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
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CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
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AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
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GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
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GLOSSARYSustainable land management
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AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
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STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 23 and 24: OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
Page 25 and 26: OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
Page 27 and 28: OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
Page 29 and 30: OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
Page 32 and 33: Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
Page 34 and 35: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
Page 36: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
Page 39 and 40: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 41 and 42: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 44 and 45: 1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
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Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
Page 54 and 55: 2. Climate Adaptation at the World
Page 56 and 57: CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
Page 76 and 77: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
Page 80 and 81: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
Page 82 and 83: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
Page 84 and 85: CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
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Page 104 and 105: 4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
Page 106 and 107: CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONlev
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Page 120 and 121: Integration of Climate Change Consi
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONcha
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONres
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5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearPro
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
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Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
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APPENDIX B• Social Development St
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APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
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Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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