Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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OVERVIEWapplications, especially when applied tosmaller areas, to precipitation, and to extremeevents, models often give too wide adispersion of readings to provide usefulguidance. A review of the application of thesemodels at the Bank Group found that they areoften used as a backdrop for urging theadoption of “no-regret” actions, and rarely forquantitative decision making on options.There are unsolved challenges inincorporating climate change (as opposed tovariability) into project design and appraisal.This is a global issue affecting the public andprivate sector, not just the Bank Group.Lacking guidance on how to do this, projectdesigners may under- or over-invest in climaterisk analysis and in exploring options forresilience. Climate change risks are greatestfor long-lived, inflexible projects. But changesin precipitation patterns more than 20 years inthe future are difficult to predict, and atstandard discount rates, those changes mayhave a muted effect on project economics.IFC has sponsored some cutting-edge analyticstudies that provide some insight. They show,for instance, that for the private sector someclimate risks are negligible, others essentiallyunpredictable, and still others addressableincrementally—for example, by raising thePort of Cartagena’s causeway periodically assea levels rise.IEG assessed treatments of climate risks inhydropower, a long-lived climate-sensitivesector, and found no consistent approach toclimate risk identification. In most projects,climate change risks were not considered if notrend was detected in historic data. One goodpractice appraisal—for the Trung Son plant inVietnam—tested the robustness of economicreturns to assumed extreme changes in flow,and recommended an increase in safetymargin to deal with more severe flood risk.IEG also assessed practices in the design ofprotected areas, where the objective ofbiodiversity conservation has an indefinitehorizon, is not subject to economicdiscounting, and is threatened in wellunderstoodways by climate change. Of 34SFDCC-era projects, eight made someprovision for sustaining biodiversity, forinstance by seeking habitat connectivity tofacilitate temperature-driven migration.However, sustainable funding of protectedareas remains a fundamental problem.Anticipatory adaptation efforts—pay now toavoid damages later—are inherently lessappealing to individuals and to countriesbecause of the uncertainty surroundingbenefits, and because urgent current needstrump future ones.This report identified some areas that appearto require anticipatory adaptation. Basin-levelwater management involves irreversible decisionswith long-term consequences. To help addressthis, the Bank has supported transnationalbasin-level organizations. Progress is slow; ittakes decades to build capacity, and to buildtrust among the partners. The Bank’sexperience in supporting the Mekong RiverBasin Commission illustrates the need foropen-source data and models of river basinfunction, the importance of data sharing, andthe inextricability of development andadaptation issues.Land use planning is potentially critical formany reasons: Coastal and floodplain populations willswell by billions this century; shapingexactly how and where they settle coulddrastically reduce vulnerability to coastaland river flooding. Maintaining wetlands, urban parks, andforested hillsides mitigates futureflooding. Coastal zone management can reduceclimate stress on marine resources. Anticipated changes in the location oftemperature-sensitive crops, such asxxiii
OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrastructure orenvironmental planning.But zoning-type land use restrictions areextremely hard to implement; only a couple ofsuccessful, but small-scale, examples werefound. A recently initiated large project thatattempts to influence coastal zonedevelopment in India will bear watching.Development of a portfolio of new crop varieties to beready for emerging pests and climate patternsis a global public good for adaptation. TheBank has supported this goal indirectlythrough funding of the Consultative Groupon International Agricultural Research(CGIAR).Conservation of agrobiodiversity—especially wildrelatives of commercial crops and animals—could be an important input into new cropand animal varieties. The Bank, although amajor supporter of protected areas fortropical forests and other biodiversity, hassupported only a handful of projects directedat agrobiodiversity.Directions for the World Bank GroupTo a large extent, pursuing climate adaptationstarts with the pursuit of sustainabledevelopment, especially sustainableagriculture, integrated water resourcemanagement, and disaster risk reduction.One challenge is to integrate ACV—seamlessly and cost-effectively—intosustainable development in a way that alsocontributes to long-term adaptation (and thusavoids maladaptation). This means designinginterventions with a clear logic of how theywill promote resilience and poverty reduction,and then tracking results, with coursecorrections if warranted. Technical advancesmake this feasible and offer the possibility ofimmediate benefits in effectiveness, asillustrated by the Sujala project in Karnataka,India. Institutional development is likely to bea strong component of no-regret ACV.A second challenge is to identify and supportanticipatory ACC. Anticipatory adaptationefforts—pay now to avoid damages later—are inherently less appealing to individuals andto countries than ACV because of theuncertainty surrounding benefits, and becauseurgent current needs trump future ones. Butin some cases, failure to take action nowcloses future options, heighteningvulnerability.IEG makes five recommendations that areintended to focus the institution and itsdevelopment partners on climate adaptationresults.Recommendation 1: Develop referenceguidelines for incorporating climate riskmanagement into project and programdesign, appraisal, and implementation.These guidelines are not meant to be rigidlyprescriptive but rather to provide guidance onappropriate levels of due diligence foractivities of different size, flexibility andlongevity, recognizing operational differencesbetween World Bank Group institutions. Theguidelines, tailored to project types or sectors,would include relevant risks to be assessed;guidance on available risk assessment toolsincluding their strengths, limitations, andapplicability; and options for integratingclimate risk considerations into design andimplementation. The World Bank Groupcould use its convening power to assembleclimate scientists and industry experts to draftthese guidelines, creating a network thatwould deepen and refine the guidelines overtime and might help disseminate them toother interested groups.Recommendation 2: Develop and pilotterritorial and national-level measures ofadaptation-related outcomes and impactsfor inclusion in an improved resultsframework. To track progress, the BankGroup should mobilize resources andcollaborate with national and internationalpartners to create and test practical, sensitive,xxiv
Page 1 and 2: Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
Page 4 and 5: ContentsGLOSSARY ..................
Page 6 and 7: CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
Page 8: AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
Page 11 and 12: GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
Page 13 and 14: GLOSSARYSustainable land management
Page 16: AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
Page 19 and 20: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 21 and 22: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 23 and 24: OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
Page 25: OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
Page 29 and 30: OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
Page 32 and 33: Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
Page 34 and 35: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
Page 36: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
Page 39 and 40: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 41 and 42: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 44 and 45: 1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
Page 54 and 55: 2. Climate Adaptation at the World
Page 56 and 57: CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
Page 74 and 75: 3. Dealing with Climate Variability
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.34 An
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYto incr
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYdisaste
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYTHE BAN
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.59 Li
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfund di
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfrom se
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.80 Lo
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYonly ha
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4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONlev
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFor
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONBox
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONANA
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONfut
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Integration of Climate Change Consi
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONare
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONcha
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONres
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5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearPro
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
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Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
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APPENDIX B• Social Development St
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APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
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Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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